AMP algorithms have two features that make them particularly attractive. First, they can easily be tailored to take advantage of prior information on the structure of the signal, such as sparsity or other constraints. Second, under suitable assumptions on a design or data matrix, AMP theory provides precise asymptotic guarantees for statistical procedures in the high-dimensional regime where the ratio of the number of observations n to dimensions p converges to a constant (Bayati and Montanari, 2012; Donoho et al., 2013; Sur et al., 2017). More generally, AMP has been also used to obtain lower bounds on the estimation error of first-order methods (Celentano et al., 2020), and in linear regression and low rank matrix estimation, it plays a fundamental role in understanding the performance gap between information-theoretically optimal and computationally feasible estimators (Reeves and Pfister, 2019; Barbier et al., 2019; Lelarge and Miolane, 2019). In these settings, it is conjectured that AMP achieves the optimal asymptotic estimation error among all polynomial-time algorithms (cf.

Energy-based models (EBMs) are a simple yet powerful framework for generative modeling. They are based on a trainable energy function which defines an associated Gibbs measure, and they can be trained and sampled from via well-established statistical tools, such as MCMC. Neural networks may be used as energy function approximators, providing both a rich class of expressive models as well as a flexible device to incorporate data structure. In this work we focus on shallow neural networks. Building from the incipient theory of overparametrized neural networks, we show that models trained in the so-called "active" regime provide a statistical advantage over their associated "lazy" or kernel regime, leading to improved adaptivity to hidden low-dimensional structure in the data distribution, as already observed in supervised learning. Our study covers both maximum likelihood and Stein Discrepancy estimators, and we validate our theoretical results with numerical experiments on synthetic data.

We introduce a new architecture called a conditional invertible neural network (cINN), and use it to address the task of diverse image-to-image translation for natural images. This is not easily possible with existing INN models due to some fundamental limitations. The cINN combines the purely generative INN model with an unconstrained feed-forward network, which efficiently preprocesses the conditioning image into maximally informative features. All parameters of a cINN are jointly optimized with a stable, maximum likelihood-based training procedure. Even though INN-based models have received far less attention in the literature than GANs, they have been shown to have some remarkable properties absent in GANs, e.g. apparent immunity to mode collapse. We find that our cINNs leverage these properties for image-to-image translation, demonstrated on day to night translation and image colorization. Furthermore, we take advantage of our bidirectional cINN architecture to explore and manipulate emergent properties of the latent space, such as changing the image style in an intuitive way.

Incorporating shape information is essential for the delineation of many organs and anatomical structures in medical images. While previous work has mainly focused on parametric spatial transformations applied on reference template shapes, in this paper, we address the Bayesian inference of parametric shape models for segmenting medical images with the objective to provide interpretable results. The proposed framework defines a likelihood appearance probability and a prior label probability based on a generic shape function through a logistic function. A reference length parameter defined in the sigmoid controls the trade-off between shape and appearance information. The inference of shape parameters is performed within an Expectation-Maximisation approach where a Gauss-Newton optimization stage allows to provide an approximation of the posterior probability of shape parameters. This framework is applied to the segmentation of cochlea structures from clinical CT images constrained by a 10 parameter shape model. It is evaluated on three different datasets, one of which includes more than 200 patient images. The results show performances comparable to supervised methods and better than previously proposed unsupervised ones. It also enables an analysis of parameter distributions and the quantification of segmentation uncertainty including the effect of the shape model.

We introduce a novel combination of Bayesian Models (BMs) and Neural Networks (NNs) for making predictions with a minimum expected risk. Our approach combines the best of both worlds, the data efficiency and interpretability of a BM with the speed of a NN. For a BM, making predictions with the lowest expected loss requires integrating over the posterior distribution. When exact inference of the posterior predictive distribution is intractable, approximation methods are typically applied, e.g. Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. For MC, the variance of the estimator decreases with the number of samples - but at the expense of increased computational cost. Our approach removes the need for iterative MC simulation on the CPU at prediction time. In brief, it works by fitting a NN to synthetic data generated using the BM. In a single feed-forward pass, the NN gives a set of point-wise approximations to the BM's posterior predictive distribution for a given observation. We achieve risk minimized predictions significantly faster than standard methods with a negligible loss on the test dataset. We combine this approach with Active Learning to minimize the amount of data required for fitting the NN. This is done by iteratively labeling more data in regions with high predictive uncertainty of the NN.

The current pandemic has introduced substantial uncertainty to traditional methods for demand planning. These uncertainties stem from the disease progression, government interventions, economy and consumer behavior. While most of the emerging literature on the pandemic has focused on disease progression, a few have focused on consequent regulations and their impact on individual behavior. The contributions of this paper include a quantitative behavior model of fear of COVID-19, impact of government interventions on consumer behavior, and impact of consumer behavior on consumer choice and hence demand for goods. It brings together multiple models for disease progression, consumer behavior and demand estimation-thus bridging the gap between disease progression and consumer demand. We use panel regression to understand the drivers of demand during the pandemic and Bayesian inference to simplify the regulation landscape that can help build scenarios for resilient demand planning. We illustrate this resilient demand planning model using a specific example of gas retailing. We find that demand is sensitive to fear of COVID-19: as the number of COVID-19 cases increase over the previous week, the demand for gas decreases -- though this dissipates over time. Further, government regulations restrict access to different services, thereby reducing mobility, which in itself reduces demand.

Bayesian optimisation (BO) uses probabilistic surrogate models - usually Gaussian processes (GPs) - for the optimisation of expensive black-box functions. At each BO iteration, the GP hyperparameters are fit to previously-evaluated data by maximising the marginal likelihood. However, this fails to account for uncertainty in the hyperparameters themselves, leading to overconfident model predictions. This uncertainty can be accounted for by taking the Bayesian approach of marginalising out the model hyperparameters. We investigate whether a fully-Bayesian treatment of the Gaussian process hyperparameters in BO (FBBO) leads to improved optimisation performance. Since an analytic approach is intractable, we compare FBBO using three approximate inference schemes to the maximum likelihood approach, using the Expected Improvement (EI) and Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) acquisition functions paired with ARD and isotropic Matern kernels, across 15 well-known benchmark problems for 4 observational noise settings. FBBO using EI with an ARD kernel leads to the best performance in the noise-free setting, with much less difference between combinations of BO components when the noise is increased. FBBO leads to over-exploration with UCB, but is not detrimental with EI. Therefore, we recommend that FBBO using EI with an ARD kernel as the default choice for BO.

The numerical solution of differential equations can be formulated as an inference problem to which formal statistical approaches can be applied. However, nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs) pose substantial challenges from an inferential perspective, most notably the absence of explicit conditioning formula. This paper extends earlier work on linear PDEs to a general class of initial value problems specified by nonlinear PDEs, motivated by problems for which evaluations of the right-hand-side, initial conditions, or boundary conditions of the PDE have a high computational cost. The proposed method can be viewed as exact Bayesian inference under an approximate likelihood, which is based on discretisation of the nonlinear differential operator. Proof-of-concept experimental results demonstrate that meaningful probabilistic uncertainty quantification for the unknown solution of the PDE can be performed, while controlling the number of times the right-hand-side, initial and boundary conditions are evaluated. A suitable prior model for the solution of the PDE is identified using novel theoretical analysis of the sample path properties of Mat\'{e}rn processes, which may be of independent interest.

We propose a new method to estimate causal effects from nonexperimental data. Each pair of sample units is first associated with a stochastic 'treatment' - differences in factors between units - and an effect - a resultant outcome difference. It is then proposed that all such pairs can be combined to provide more accurate estimates of causal effects in observational data, provided a statistical model connecting combinatorial properties of treatments to the accuracy and unbiasedness of their effects. The article introduces one such model and a Bayesian approach to combine the $O(n^2)$ pairwise observations typically available in nonexperimnetal data. This also leads to an interpretation of nonexperimental datasets as incomplete, or noisy, versions of ideal factorial experimental designs. This approach to causal effect estimation has several advantages: (1) it expands the number of observations, converting thousands of individuals into millions of observational treatments; (2) starting with treatments closest to the experimental ideal, it identifies noncausal variables that can be ignored in the future, making estimation easier in each subsequent iteration while departing minimally from experiment-like conditions; (3) it recovers individual causal effects in heterogeneous populations. We evaluate the method in simulations and the National Supported Work (NSW) program, an intensively studied program whose effects are known from randomized field experiments. We demonstrate that the proposed approach recovers causal effects in common NSW samples, as well as in arbitrary subpopulations and an order-of-magnitude larger supersample with the entire national program data, outperforming Statistical, Econometrics and Machine Learning estimators in all cases...

A Bayesian network is a probabilistic graphical model, which represents conditional independence relationships between a set of random variables by a directed acyclic graph (DAG).The problem of DAG learning from observational data is hard (Chickering 1996), and the number of DAGs grows super-exponentially with the number of nodes. Hence, developing and implementing methods to learn an underlying DAG from observational data in reasonable time continues to be the focus of much research (Bartlett and Cussens 2017; Goudie and Mukherjee 2016; Scanagatta, de Campos, and Corani 2015). Drton and Maathuis (2017) provide an overview of the approaches for structure learning of graphical models including Bayesian networks. The R (R Development Core Team 2008) packages pcalg (Kalisch, Mächler, Colombo, Maathuis, and Bühlmann 2012), BNlearn (Scutari 2010), bnstruct (Franzin, Sambo, and Camillo 2017) and the Java-based toolbox TETRAD (Glymour, Scheines, Spirtes, and Ramsey 2017) implement multiple approaches to structure learning, including both constraint-based and searcharXiv:2105.00488v1