We develop a structural econometric model to capture the decision dynamics of human evaluators on an online micro-lending platform, and estimate the model parameters using a real-world dataset. We find two types of biases in gender, preference-based bias and belief-based bias, are present in human evaluators' decisions. Both types of biases are in favor of female applicants. Through counterfactual simulations, we quantify the effect of gender bias on loan granting outcomes and the welfare of the company and the borrowers. Our results imply that both the existence of the preference-based bias and that of the belief-based bias reduce the company's profits. When the preference-based bias is removed, the company earns more profits. When the belief-based bias is removed, the company's profits also increase. Both increases result from raising the approval probability for borrowers, especially male borrowers, who eventually pay back loans. For borrowers, the elimination of either bias decreases the gender gap of the true positive rates in the credit risk evaluation. We also train machine learning algorithms on both the real-world data and the data from the counterfactual simulations. We compare the decisions made by those algorithms to see how evaluators' biases are inherited by the algorithms and reflected in machine-based decisions. We find that machine learning algorithms can mitigate both the preference-based bias and the belief-based bias.

Humans ability to transfer knowledge through teaching is one of the essential aspects for human intelligence. A human teacher can track the knowledge of students to customize the teaching on students needs. With the rise of online education platforms, there is a similar need for machines to track the knowledge of students and tailor their learning experience. This is known as the Knowledge Tracing (KT) problem in the literature. Effectively solving the KT problem would unlock the potential of computer-aided education applications such as intelligent tutoring systems, curriculum learning, and learning materials' recommendation. Moreover, from a more general viewpoint, a student may represent any kind of intelligent agents including both human and artificial agents. Thus, the potential of KT can be extended to any machine teaching application scenarios which seek for customizing the learning experience for a student agent (i.e., a machine learning model). In this paper, we provide a comprehensive and systematic review for the KT literature. We cover a broad range of methods starting from the early attempts to the recent state-of-the-art methods using deep learning, while highlighting the theoretical aspects of models and the characteristics of benchmark datasets. Besides these, we shed light on key modelling differences between closely related methods and summarize them in an easy-to-understand format. Finally, we discuss current research gaps in the KT literature and possible future research and application directions.

Classification models are a fundamental component of physical-asset management technologies such as structural health monitoring (SHM) systems and digital twins. Previous work introduced \textit{risk-based active learning}, an online approach for the development of statistical classifiers that takes into account the decision-support context in which they are applied. Decision-making is considered by preferentially querying data labels according to \textit{expected value of perfect information} (EVPI). Although several benefits are gained by adopting a risk-based active learning approach, including improved decision-making performance, the algorithms suffer from issues relating to sampling bias as a result of the guided querying process. This sampling bias ultimately manifests as a decline in decision-making performance during the later stages of active learning, which in turn corresponds to lost resource/utility. The current paper proposes two novel approaches to counteract the effects of sampling bias: \textit{semi-supervised learning}, and \textit{discriminative classification models}. These approaches are first visualised using a synthetic dataset, then subsequently applied to an experimental case study, specifically, the Z24 Bridge dataset. The semi-supervised learning approach is shown to have variable performance; with robustness to sampling bias dependent on the suitability of the generative distributions selected for the model with respect to each dataset. In contrast, the discriminative classifiers are shown to have excellent robustness to the effects of sampling bias. Moreover, it was found that the number of inspections made during a monitoring campaign, and therefore resource expenditure, could be reduced with the careful selection of the statistical classifiers used within a decision-supporting monitoring system.

A wide range of modern applications, especially in Bayesian inference framework [1], require the study of probability density functions (pdfs) which can be evaluated stochastically, i.e., only noisy evaluations can be obtained [2, 3, 4, 5]. For instance, this is the case of the pseudo-marginal approaches and doubly intractable posteriors [6, 7], approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and likelihood-free schemes [8, 9], where the target density cannot be computed in closed-form. The noisy scenario also appears naturally when mini-batches of data are employed instead of considering the complete likelihood of huge amounts of data [10, 11]. More recently, the analysis of noisy functions of densities is required in reinforcement learning (RL), especially in direct policy search which is an important branch of RL, with applications in robotics [12, 13]. The topic of inference in noisy settings (or where a function is known with a certain degree of uncertainty) is also of interest in the inverse problem literature, such as in the calibration of expensive computer codes [14, 15]. This is also the case when the construction of an emulator is considered, as a surrogate model [4, 16, 17].

Understanding capabilities and limitations of different network architectures is of fundamental importance to machine learning. Bayesian inference on Gaussian processes has proven to be a viable approach for studying recurrent and deep networks in the limit of infinite layer width, $n\to\infty$. Here we present a unified and systematic derivation of the mean-field theory for both architectures that starts from first principles by employing established methods from statistical physics of disordered systems. The theory elucidates that while the mean-field equations are different with regard to their temporal structure, they yet yield identical Gaussian kernels when readouts are taken at a single time point or layer, respectively. Bayesian inference applied to classification then predicts identical performance and capabilities for the two architectures. Numerically, we find that convergence towards the mean-field theory is typically slower for recurrent networks than for deep networks and the convergence speed depends non-trivially on the parameters of the weight prior as well as the depth or number of time steps, respectively. Our method exposes that Gaussian processes are but the lowest order of a systematic expansion in $1/n$. The formalism thus paves the way to investigate the fundamental differences between recurrent and deep architectures at finite widths $n$.

AI and humans bring complementary skills to group deliberations. Modeling this group decision making is especially challenging when the deliberations include an element of risk and an exploration-exploitation process of appraising the capabilities of the human and AI agents. To investigate this question, we presented a sequence of intellective issues to a set of human groups aided by imperfect AI agents. A group's goal was to appraise the relative expertise of the group's members and its available AI agents, evaluate the risks associated with different actions, and maximize the overall reward by reaching consensus. We propose and empirically validate models of human-AI team decision making under such uncertain circumstances, and show the value of socio-cognitive constructs of prospect theory, influence dynamics, and Bayesian learning in predicting the behavior of human-AI groups.

In this paper, we introduce stochastic block majorization-minimization, where the surrogates can now be only block multi-convex and a single block is optimized at a time within a diminishing radius. Relaxing the standard strong convexity requirements for surrogates in SMM, our framework gives wider applicability including online CANDECOMP/PARAFAC (CP) dictionary learning and yields greater computational efficiency especially when the problem dimension is large. We provide an extensive convergence analysis on the proposed algorithm, which we derive under possibly dependent data streams, relaxing the standard i.i.d. Our results provide first convergence rate bounds for various online matrix and tensor decomposition algorithms under a general Markovian data setting. Empirical loss minimization is a classical problem setting regarding parameter estimation with a growing number of observations, where one seeks to minimize a recursively defined empirical loss function as new data arrives. Some of its well-known applications include maximum likelihood estimation, or more generally, M-estimation [Gey94, GvdGW00, SB02], as well as the online dictionary learning literature [MBPS10, Mai13b, MMTV17, LNB20]. On the other hand, the expected loss minimization seeks to estimate a parameter by minimizing the loss function with respect to random data. It provides a general framework for stochastic optimization literature [SK07, Mar05, BB08, NJLS09]. Optimization algorithms for empirical or expected loss minimization are in nature'online', meaning that sampling new data points and adjusting the current estimation occurs recursively. Such onilne algorithms have proven to be particularly efficient in large-scale problems in statistics, optimization, and machine learning [Bot98, DS09, GL13, KB14].

In model-free deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms, using noisy value estimates to supervise policy evaluation and optimization is detrimental to the sample efficiency. As this noise is heteroscedastic, its effects can be mitigated using uncertainty-based weights in the optimization process. Previous methods rely on sampled ensembles, which do not capture all aspects of uncertainty. We provide a systematic analysis of the sources of uncertainty in the noisy supervision that occurs in RL, and introduce inverse-variance RL, a Bayesian framework which combines probabilistic ensembles and Batch Inverse Variance weighting. We propose a method whereby two complementary uncertainty estimation methods account for both the Q-value and the environment stochasticity to better mitigate the negative impacts of noisy supervision. Our results show significant improvement in terms of sample efficiency on discrete and continuous control tasks.

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This blog post focuses on a promising new direction for generative modeling. We can learn score functions (gradients of log probability density functions) on a large number of noise-perturbed data distributions, then generate samples with Langevin-type sampling. The resulting generative models, often called score-based generative models, has several important advantages over existing model families: GAN-level sample quality without adversarial training, flexible model architectures, exact log-likelihood computation, and inverse problem solving without re-training models. In this blog post, we will show you in more detail the intuition, basic concepts, and potential applications of score-based generative models. Existing generative modeling techniques can largely be grouped into two categories based on how they represent probability distributions. Likelihood-based models and implicit generative models, however, both have significant limitations. Likelihood-based models either require strong restrictions on the model architecture to ensure a tractable normalizing constant for likelihood computation, or must rely on surrogate objectives to approximate maximum likelihood training.