Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) models are a prominent tool for performing flexible inference with a natural quantification of uncertainty. Notable examples for \(T\) include normalization for random probabilities (Regazzini et al., 2003), kernel mixtures for densities (Lo, 1984) and for hazards (Dykstra and Laud, 1981; James, 2005), exponential transformations for survival functions (Doksum, 1974) and cumulative transformations for cumulative hazards (Hjort, 1990). Very often, though, the data presents some structural heterogeneity one should carefully take into account, especially when analyzing data from different sources that are related in some way. For instance this happens in the study of clinical trials of a COVID-19 vaccine in different countries or when understanding the effects of a certain policy adopted by multiple regions. In these cases, besides modeling heterogeneity, one further aims at introducing some probabilistic mechanism that allows for borrowing information across different studies.

Detecting relevant changes in dynamic time series data in a timely manner is crucially important for many data analysis tasks in real-world settings. Change point detection methods have the ability to discover changes in an unsupervised fashion, which represents a desirable property in the analysis of unbounded and unlabeled data streams. However, one limitation of most of the existing approaches is represented by their limited ability to handle multivariate and high-dimensional data, which is frequently observed in modern applications such as traffic flow prediction, human activity recognition, and smart grids monitoring. In this paper, we attempt to fill this gap by proposing WATCH, a novel Wasserstein distance-based change point detection approach that models an initial distribution and monitors its behavior while processing new data points, providing accurate and robust detection of change points in dynamic high-dimensional data. An extensive experimental evaluation involving a large number of benchmark datasets shows that WATCH is capable of accurately identifying change points and outperforming state-of-the-art methods.

Human infants acquire their verbal lexicon from minimal prior knowledge of language based on the statistical properties of phonological distributions and the co-occurrence of other sensory stimuli. In this study, we propose a novel fully unsupervised learning method discovering speech units by utilizing phonological information as a distributional cue and object information as a co-occurrence cue. The proposed method can not only (1) acquire words and phonemes from speech signals using unsupervised learning, but can also (2) utilize object information based on multiple modalities (i.e., vision, tactile, and auditory) simultaneously. The proposed method is based on the Nonparametric Bayesian Double Articulation Analyzer (NPB-DAA) discovering phonemes and words from phonological features, and Multimodal Latent Dirichlet Allocation (MLDA) categorizing multimodal information obtained from objects. In the experiment, the proposed method showed higher word discovery performance than the baseline methods. In particular, words that expressed the characteristics of the object (i.e., words corresponding to nouns and adjectives) were segmented accurately. Furthermore, we examined how learning performance is affected by differences in the importance of linguistic information. When the weight of the word modality was increased, the performance was further improved compared to the fixed condition.

We consider the problem of multiway clustering in the presence of unknown degree heterogeneity. Such data problems arise commonly in applications such as recommendation system, neuroimaging, community detection, and hypergraph partitions in social networks. The allowance of degree heterogeneity provides great flexibility in clustering models, but the extra complexity poses significant challenges in both statistics and computation. Here, we develop a degree-corrected tensor block model with estimation accuracy guarantees. We present the phase transition of clustering performance based on the notion of angle separability, and we characterize three signal-to-noise regimes corresponding to different statistical-computational behaviors. In particular, we demonstrate that an intrinsic statistical-to-computational gap emerges only for tensors of order three or greater. Further, we develop an efficient polynomial-time algorithm that provably achieves exact clustering under mild signal conditions. The efficacy of our procedure is demonstrated through two data applications, one on human brain connectome project, and another on Peru Legislation network dataset.

A fundamental challenge in Bayesian inference is efficient representation of a target distribution. Many non-parametric approaches do so by sampling a large number of points using variants of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We propose an MCMC variant that retains only those posterior samples which exceed a KSD threshold, which we call KSD Thinning. We establish the convergence and complexity tradeoffs for several settings of KSD Thinning as a function of the KSD threshold parameter, sample size, and other problem parameters. Finally, we provide experimental comparisons against other online nonparametric Bayesian methods that generate low-complexity posterior representations, and observe superior consistency/complexity tradeoffs. Code is available at github.com/colehawkins/KSD-Thinning.

Bayesian statistics is all about belief. We have some prior belief about the true model, and we combine that with the likelihood of our data to get our posterior belief about the true model. In some cases, we have knowledge about our domain before we see any of the data. Bayesian inference provides a straightforward way to encode that belief into a prior probability distribution. For example, say I am an economist predicting the effects of interest rates on tech stock price changes.

Weak lensing mass-mapping is a useful tool to access the full distribution of dark matter on the sky, but because of intrinsic galaxy ellipticies and finite fields/missing data, the recovery of dark matter maps constitutes a challenging ill-posed inverse problem. We introduce a novel methodology allowing for efficient sampling of the high-dimensional Bayesian posterior of the weak lensing mass-mapping problem, and relying on simulations for defining a fully non-Gaussian prior. We aim to demonstrate the accuracy of the method on simulations, and then proceed to applying it to the mass reconstruction of the HST/ACS COSMOS field. The proposed methodology combines elements of Bayesian statistics, analytic theory, and a recent class of Deep Generative Models based on Neural Score Matching. This approach allows us to do the following: 1) Make full use of analytic cosmological theory to constrain the 2pt statistics of the solution. 2) Learn from cosmological simulations any differences between this analytic prior and full simulations. 3) Obtain samples from the full Bayesian posterior of the problem for robust Uncertainty Quantification. We demonstrate the method on the $\kappa$TNG simulations and find that the posterior mean significantly outperfoms previous methods (Kaiser-Squires, Wiener filter, Sparsity priors) both on root-mean-square error and in terms of the Pearson correlation. We further illustrate the interpretability of the recovered posterior by establishing a close correlation between posterior convergence values and SNR of clusters artificially introduced into a field. Finally, we apply the method to the reconstruction of the HST/ACS COSMOS field and yield the highest quality convergence map of this field to date.

Supervised classification techniques use training samples to learn a classification rule with small expected 0-1-loss(error probability). Conventional methods enable tractable learning and provide out-of-sample generalization by using surrogate losses instead of the 0-1-loss and considering specific families of rules (hypothesis classes). This paper presents minimax risk classifiers (MRCs) that minimize the worst-case 0-1-loss over general classification rules and provide tight performance guarantees at learning. We show that MRCs are strongly universally consistent using feature mappings given by characteristic kernels. The paper also proposes efficient optimization techniques for MRC learning and shows that the methods presented can provide accurate classification together with tight performance guarantees.

Bayesian methods to solve imaging inverse problems usually combine an explicit data likelihood function with a prior distribution that explicitly models expected properties of the solution. Many kinds of priors have been explored in the literature, from simple ones expressing local properties to more involved ones exploiting image redundancy at a non-local scale. In a departure from explicit modelling, several recent works have proposed and studied the use of implicit priors defined by an image denoising algorithm. This approach, commonly known as Plug & Play (PnP) regularisation, can deliver remarkably accurate results, particularly when combined with state-of-the-art denoisers based on convolutional neural networks. However, the theoretical analysis of PnP Bayesian models and algorithms is difficult and works on the topic often rely on unrealistic assumptions on the properties of the image denoiser. This papers studies maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) estimation for Bayesian models with PnP priors. We first consider questions related to existence, stability and well-posedness, and then present a convergence proof for MAP computation by PnP stochastic gradient descent (PnP-SGD) under realistic assumptions on the denoiser used. We report a range of imaging experiments demonstrating PnP-SGD as well as comparisons with other PnP schemes.

Probabilistic models often use neural networks to control their predictive uncertainty. However, when making out-of-distribution (OOD)} predictions, the often-uncontrollable extrapolation properties of neural networks yield poor uncertainty predictions. Such models then don't know what they don't know, which directly limits their robustness w.r.t unexpected inputs. To counter this, we propose to explicitly train the uncertainty predictor where we are not given data to make it reliable. As one cannot train without data, we provide mechanisms for generating pseudo-inputs in informative low-density regions of the input space, and show how to leverage these in a practical Bayesian framework that casts a prior distribution over the model uncertainty. With a holistic evaluation, we demonstrate that this yields robust and interpretable predictions of uncertainty while retaining state-of-the-art performance on diverse tasks such as regression and generative modelling