Bayesian Inference
Constrained Structure Learning for Scene Graph Generation
Liu, Daqi, Bober, Miroslaw, Kittler, Josef
As a structured prediction task, scene graph generation aims to build a visually-grounded scene graph to explicitly model objects and their relationships in an input image. Currently, the mean field variational Bayesian framework is the de facto methodology used by the existing methods, in which the unconstrained inference step is often implemented by a message passing neural network. However, such formulation fails to explore other inference strategies, and largely ignores the more general constrained optimization models. In this paper, we present a constrained structure learning method, for which an explicit constrained variational inference objective is proposed. Instead of applying the ubiquitous message-passing strategy, a generic constrained optimization method - entropic mirror descent - is utilized to solve the constrained variational inference step. We validate the proposed generic model on various popular scene graph generation benchmarks and show that it outperforms the state-of-the-art methods.
A Probabilistic Framework for Dynamic Object Recognition in 3D Environment With A Novel Continuous Ground Estimation Method
In this thesis a probabilistic framework is developed and proposed for Dynamic Object Recognition in 3D Environments. A software package is developed using C++ and Python in ROS that performs the detection and tracking task. Furthermore, a novel Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) based method is developed to detect ground points in different urban scenarios of regular, sloped and rough. The ground surface behavior is assumed to only demonstrate local input-dependent smoothness. kernel's length-scales are obtained. Bayesian inference is implemented sing \textit{Maximum a Posteriori} criterion. The log-marginal likelihood function is assumed to be a multi-task objective function, to represent a whole-frame unbiased view of the ground at each frame because adjacent segments may not have similar ground structure in an uneven scene while having shared hyper-parameter values. Simulation results shows the effectiveness of the proposed method in uneven and rough scenes which outperforms similar Gaussian process based ground segmentation methods.
First-Order Context-Specific Likelihood Weighting in Hybrid Probabilistic Logic Programs
Kumar, Nitesh, Kuzelka, Ondrej, De Raedt, Luc
Statistical relational AI and probabilistic logic programming have so far mostly focused on discrete probabilistic models. The reasons for this is that one needs to provide constructs to succinctly model the independencies in such models, and also provide efficient inference. Three types of independencies are important to represent and exploit for scalable inference in hybrid models: conditional independencies elegantly modeled in Bayesian networks, context-specific independencies naturally represented by logical rules, and independencies amongst attributes of related objects in relational models succinctly expressed by combining rules. This paper introduces a hybrid probabilistic logic programming language, DC#, which integrates distributional clauses' syntax and semantics principles of Bayesian logic programs. It represents the three types of independencies qualitatively. More importantly, we also introduce the scalable inference algorithm FO-CS-LW for DC#. FO-CS-LW is a first-order extension of the context-specific likelihood weighting algorithm (CS-LW), a novel sampling method that exploits conditional independencies and context-specific independencies in ground models.
A probabilistic latent variable model for detecting structure in binary data
Warner, Christopher, Ruda, Kiersten, Sommer, Friedrich T.
We introduce a novel, probabilistic binary latent variable model to detect noisy or approximate repeats of patterns in sparse binary data. The model is based on the "Noisy-OR model" (Heckerman, 1990), used previously for disease and topic modelling. The model's capability is demonstrated by extracting structure in recordings from retinal neurons, but it can be widely applied to discover and model latent structure in noisy binary data. In the context of spiking neural data, the task is to "explain" spikes of individual neurons in terms of groups of neurons, "Cell Assemblies" (CAs), that often fire together, due to mutual interactions or other causes. The model infers sparse activity in a set of binary latent variables, each describing the activity of a cell assembly. When the latent variable of a cell assembly is active, it reduces the probabilities of neurons belonging to this assembly to be inactive. The conditional probability kernels of the latent components are learned from the data in an expectation maximization scheme, involving inference of latent states and parameter adjustments to the model. We thoroughly validate the model on synthesized spike trains constructed to statistically resemble recorded retinal responses to white noise stimulus and natural movie stimulus in data. We also apply our model to spiking responses recorded in retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) during stimulation with a movie and discuss the found structure.
Visualizing the diversity of representations learned by Bayesian neural networks
Grinwald, Dennis, Bykov, Kirill, Nakajima, Shinichi, Höhne, Marina M. -C.
Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) aims to make learning machines less opaque, and offers researchers and practitioners various tools to reveal the decision-making strategies of neural networks. In this work, we investigate how XAI methods can be used for exploring and visualizing the diversity of feature representations learned by Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). Our goal is to provide a global understanding of BNNs by making their decision-making strategies a) visible and tangible through feature visualizations and b) quantitatively measurable with a distance measure learned by contrastive learning. Our work provides new insights into the posterior distribution in terms of human-understandable feature information with regard to the underlying decision-making strategies. Our main findings are the following: 1) global XAI methods can be applied to explain the diversity of decision-making strategies of BNN instances, 2) Monte Carlo dropout exhibits increased diversity in feature representations compared to the multimodal posterior approximation of MultiSWAG, 3) the diversity of learned feature representations highly correlates with the uncertainty estimates, and 4) the inter-mode diversity of the multimodal posterior decreases as the network width increases, while the intra-mode diversity increases. Our findings are consistent with the recent deep neural networks theory, providing additional intuitions about what the theory implies in terms of humanly understandable concepts.
Top 13 Data Mining Algorithms - Geeky Humans
The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is a way to find maximum-likelihood estimates for model parameters when the data is incomplete, or has missing data points, or has unobserved/hidden latent variables. This is an iterative way to approximate the maximum likelihood function. While maximum likelihood estimation can find the "best fit" model for a set of data, it does not work specifically well for incomplete data sets. The more complex Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm can find model parameters even if you have missing data. It works by selecting random values for the missing data points and using those guesses to estimate a second set of data.
Deep Understanding of Discriminative and Generative Models
In today's world, Machine learning becomes one of the popular and exciting fields of study that gives machines the ability to learn and become more accurate at predicting outcomes for the unseen data i.e, not seen the data in prior. The ideas in Machine learning overlaps and receives from Artificial Intelligence and many other related technologies. Today, machine learning is evolved from Pattern Recognition and the concept that computers can learn without being explicitly programmed to performing specific tasks. We can use the Machine Learning algorithms(e.g, Machine learning models can be classified into two types of models – Discriminative and Generative models.
Safe AI -- How is this Possible?
A new generation of increasingly autonomous and self-learning cyber-physical systems (CPS) is being developed for control applications in the real world. These systems are AI-based in that they leverage techniques from the field of Artificial intelligence (AI) to flexibly cope with imprecision, inconsistency, incompleteness, to have an inherent ability to learn from experience, and to adapt according to changing and even unforeseen situations. This extra flexibility of AI systems makes it harder to predict their behavior. Moreover, AI systems usually are safety-critical in that they may be causing real harm in (and to) the real world. Consequently, the central question regarding the development of such systems is how to handle or even overcome this basic dichotomy between unpredictable and safe behavior of AI systems. In other words, how can we best construct systems that exploit AI techniques, without incurring the frailties of "AI-like" behavior?
A deep mixture density network for outlier-corrected interpolation of crowd-sourced weather data
Kirkwood, Charlie, Economou, Theo, Odbert, Henry, Pugeault, Nicolas
As the costs of sensors and associated IT infrastructure decreases - as exemplified by the Internet of Things - increasing volumes of observational data are becoming available for use by environmental scientists. However, as the number of available observation sites increases, so too does the opportunity for data quality issues to emerge, particularly given that many of these sensors do not have the benefit of official maintenance teams. To realise the value of crowd sourced 'Internet of Things' type observations for environmental modelling, we require approaches that can automate the detection of outliers during the data modelling process so that they do not contaminate the true distribution of the phenomena of interest. To this end, here we present a Bayesian deep learning approach for spatio-temporal modelling of environmental variables with automatic outlier detection. Our approach implements a Gaussian-uniform mixture density network whose dual purposes - modelling the phenomenon of interest, and learning to classify and ignore outliers - are achieved simultaneously, each by specifically designed branches of our neural network. For our example application, we use the Met Office's Weather Observation Website data, an archive of observations from around 1900 privately run and unofficial weather stations across the British Isles. Using data on surface air temperature, we demonstrate how our deep mixture model approach enables the modelling of a highly skilled spatio-temporal temperature distribution without contamination from spurious observations. We hope that adoption of our approach will help unlock the potential of incorporating a wider range of observation sources, including from crowd sourcing, into future environmental models.
Probability Distribution on Rooted Trees
Nakahara, Yuta, Saito, Shota, Kamatsuka, Akira, Matsushima, Toshiyasu
The hierarchical and recursive expressive capability of rooted trees is applicable to represent statistical models in various areas, such as data compression, image processing, and machine learning. On the other hand, such hierarchical expressive capability causes a problem in tree selection to avoid overfitting. One unified approach to solve this is a Bayesian approach, on which the rooted tree is regarded as a random variable and a direct loss function can be assumed on the selected model or the predicted value for a new data point. However, all the previous studies on this approach are based on the probability distribution on full trees, to the best of our knowledge. In this paper, we propose a generalized probability distribution for any rooted trees in which only the maximum number of child nodes and the maximum depth are fixed. Furthermore, we derive recursive methods to evaluate the characteristics of the probability distribution without any approximations.