Bayesian Inference
Shared perception is different from individual perception: a new look on context dependency
Mazzola, Carlo, Rea, Francesco, Sciutti, Alessandra
Human perception is based on unconscious inference, where sensory input integrates with prior information. This phenomenon, known as context dependency, helps in facing the uncertainty of the external world with predictions built upon previous experience. On the other hand, human perceptual processes are inherently shaped by social interactions. However, how the mechanisms of context dependency are affected is to date unknown. If using previous experience - priors - is beneficial in individual settings, it could represent a problem in social scenarios where other agents might not have the same priors, causing a perceptual misalignment on the shared environment. The present study addresses this question. We studied context dependency in an interactive setting with a humanoid robot iCub that acted as a stimuli demonstrator. Participants reproduced the lengths shown by the robot in two conditions: one with iCub behaving socially and another with iCub acting as a mechanical arm. The different behavior of the robot significantly affected the use of prior in perception. Moreover, the social robot positively impacted perceptual performances by enhancing accuracy and reducing participants overall perceptual errors. Finally, the observed phenomenon has been modelled following a Bayesian approach to deepen and explore a new concept of shared perception.
Probing the Robustness of Independent Mechanism Analysis for Representation Learning
Sliwa, Joanna, Ghosh, Shubhangi, Stimper, Vincent, Gresele, Luigi, Schölkopf, Bernhard
One aim of representation learning is to recover the original latent code that generated the data, a task which requires additional information or inductive biases. A recently proposed approach termed Independent Mechanism Analysis (IMA) postulates that each latent source should influence the observed mixtures independently, complementing standard nonlinear independent component analysis, and taking inspiration from the principle of independent causal mechanisms. While it was shown in theory and experiments that IMA helps recovering the true latents, the method's performance was so far only characterized when the modeling assumptions are exactly satisfied. Here, we test the method's robustness to violations of the underlying assumptions. We find that the benefits of IMA-based regularization for recovering the true sources extend to mixing functions with various degrees of violation of the IMA principle, while standard regularizers do not provide the same merits. Moreover, we show that unregularized maximum likelihood recovers mixing functions which systematically deviate from the IMA principle, and provide an argument elucidating the benefits of IMA-based regularization.
Stability of Weighted Majority Voting under Estimated Weights
Bai, Shaojie, Wang, Dongxia, Muller, Tim, Cheng, Peng, Chen, Jiming
Weighted Majority Voting (WMV) is a well-known optimal decision rule for collective decision making, given the probability of sources to provide accurate information (trustworthiness). However, in reality, the trustworthiness is not a known quantity to the decision maker - they have to rely on an estimate called trust. A (machine learning) algorithm that computes trust is called unbiased when it has the property that it does not systematically overestimate or underestimate the trustworthiness. To formally analyse the uncertainty to the decision process, we introduce and analyse two important properties of such unbiased trust values: stability of correctness and stability of optimality. Stability of correctness means that the decision accuracy that the decision maker believes they achieved is equal to the actual accuracy. We prove stability of correctness holds. Stability of optimality means that the decisions made based on trust, are equally good as they would have been if they were based on trustworthiness. Stability of optimality does not hold. We analyse the difference between the two, and bounds thereon. We also present an overview of how sensitive decision correctness is to changes in trust and trustworthiness.
Neural Posterior Estimation with Differentiable Simulators
Zeghal, Justine, Lanusse, François, Boucaud, Alexandre, Remy, Benjamin, Aubourg, Eric
Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is a promising Bayesian inference framework that alleviates the need for analytic likelihoods to estimate posterior distributions. Recent advances using neural density estimators in SBI algorithms have demonstrated the ability to achieve high-fidelity posteriors, at the expense of a large number of simulations ; which makes their application potentially very time-consuming when using complex physical simulations. In this work we focus on boosting the sample-efficiency of posterior density estimation using the gradients of the simulator. We present a new method to perform Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) with a differentiable simulator. We demonstrate how gradient information helps constrain the shape of the posterior and improves sample-efficiency.
Scalable Bayesian Inference for Detection and Deblending in Astronomical Images
Hansen, Derek, Mendoza, Ismael, Liu, Runjing, Pang, Ziteng, Zhao, Zhe, Avestruz, Camille, Regier, Jeffrey
We present a new probabilistic method for detecting, deblending, and cataloging astronomical sources called the Bayesian Light Source Separator (BLISS). BLISS is based on deep generative models, which embed neural networks within a Bayesian model. For posterior inference, BLISS uses a new form of variational inference known as Forward Amortized Variational Inference. The BLISS inference routine is fast, requiring a single forward pass of the encoder networks on a GPU once the encoder networks are trained. BLISS can perform fully Bayesian inference on megapixel images in seconds, and produces highly accurate catalogs. BLISS is highly extensible, and has the potential to directly answer downstream scientific questions in addition to producing probabilistic catalogs.
Sliced-Wasserstein normalizing flows: beyond maximum likelihood training
Coeurdoux, Florentin, Dobigeon, Nicolas, Chainais, Pierre
Despite their advantages, normalizing flows generally suffer from several shortcomings including their tendency to generate unrealistic data (e.g., images) and their failing to detect out-of-distribution data. One reason for these deficiencies lies in the training strategy which traditionally exploits a maximum likelihood principle only. This paper proposes a new training paradigm based on a hybrid objective function combining the maximum likelihood principle (MLE) and a sliced-Wasserstein distance. Results obtained on synthetic toy examples and real image data sets show better generative abilities in terms of both likelihood and visual aspects of the generated samples. Reciprocally, the proposed approach leads to a lower likelihood of out-of-distribution data, demonstrating a greater data fidelity of the resulting flows.
An Introduction to Lifelong Supervised Learning
Sodhani, Shagun, Faramarzi, Mojtaba, Mehta, Sanket Vaibhav, Malviya, Pranshu, Abdelsalam, Mohamed, Janarthanan, Janarthanan, Chandar, Sarath
This primer is an attempt to provide a detailed summary of the different facets of lifelong learning. We start with Chapter 2 which provides a high-level overview of lifelong learning systems. In this chapter, we discuss prominent scenarios in lifelong learning (Section 2.4), provide 8 Introduction a high-level organization of different lifelong learning approaches (Section 2.5), enumerate the desiderata for an ideal lifelong learning system (Section 2.6), discuss how lifelong learning is related to other learning paradigms (Section 2.7), describe common metrics used to evaluate lifelong learning systems (Section 2.8). This chapter is more useful for readers who are new to lifelong learning and want to get introduced to the field without focusing on specific approaches or benchmarks. The remaining chapters focus on specific aspects (either learning algorithms or benchmarks) and are more useful for readers who are looking for specific approaches or benchmarks. Chapter 3 focuses on regularization-based approaches that do not assume access to any data from previous tasks. Chapter 4 discusses memory-based approaches that typically use a replay buffer or an episodic memory to save subset of data across different tasks. Chapter 5 focuses on different architecture families (and their instantiations) that have been proposed for training lifelong learning systems. Following these different classes of learning algorithms, we discuss the commonly used evaluation benchmarks and metrics for lifelong learning (Chapter 6) and wrap up with a discussion of future challenges and important research directions in Chapter 7.
Wavelet Conditional Renormalization Group
Marchand, Tanguy, Ozawa, Misaki, Biroli, Giulio, Mallat, Stéphane
We develop a multiscale approach to estimate high-dimensional probability distributions from a dataset of physical fields or configurations observed in experiments or simulations. In this way we can estimate energy functions (or Hamiltonians) and efficiently generate new samples of many-body systems in various domains, from statistical physics to cosmology. Our method -- the Wavelet Conditional Renormalization Group (WC-RG) -- proceeds scale by scale, estimating models for the conditional probabilities of "fast degrees of freedom" conditioned by coarse-grained fields. These probability distributions are modeled by energy functions associated with scale interactions, and are represented in an orthogonal wavelet basis. WC-RG decomposes the microscopic energy function as a sum of interaction energies at all scales and can efficiently generate new samples by going from coarse to fine scales. Near phase transitions, it avoids the "critical slowing down" of direct estimation and sampling algorithms. This is explained theoretically by combining results from RG and wavelet theories, and verified numerically for the Gaussian and $\varphi^4$ field theories. We show that multiscale WC-RG energy-based models are more general than local potential models and can capture the physics of complex many-body interacting systems at all length scales. This is demonstrated for weak-gravitational-lensing fields reflecting dark matter distributions in cosmology, which include long-range interactions with long-tail probability distributions. WC-RG has a large number of potential applications in non-equilibrium systems, where the underlying distribution is not known {\it a priori}. Finally, we discuss the connection between WC-RG and deep network architectures.
Amazon.com: Introduction to Machine Learning, fourth edition (Adaptive Computation and Machine Learning series) eBook : Alpaydin, Ethem: Kindle Store
The book covers a broad array of topics not usually included in introductory machine learning texts, including supervised learning, Bayesian decision theory, parametric methods, semiparametric methods, nonparametric methods, multivariate analysis, hidden Markov models, reinforcement learning, kernel machines, graphical models, Bayesian estimation, and statistical testing. The fourth edition offers a new chapter on deep learning that discusses training, regularizing, and structuring deep neural networks such as convolutional and generative adversarial networks; new material in the chapter on reinforcement learning that covers the use of deep networks, the policy gradient methods, and deep reinforcement learning; new material in the chapter on multilayer perceptrons on autoencoders and the word2vec network; and discussion of a popular method of dimensionality reduction, t-SNE. New appendixes offer background material on linear algebra and optimization. End-of-chapter exercises help readers to apply concepts learned. Introduction to Machine Learning can be used in courses for advanced undergraduate and graduate students and as a reference for professionals.
Variational Inference of overparameterized Bayesian Neural Networks: a theoretical and empirical study
Huix, Tom, Majewski, Szymon, Durmus, Alain, Moulines, Eric, Korba, Anna
This paper studies the Variational Inference (VI) used for training Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) in the overparameterized regime, i.e., when the number of neurons tends to infinity. More specifically, we consider overparameterized two-layer BNN and point out a critical issue in the mean-field VI training. This problem arises from the decomposition of the lower bound on the evidence (ELBO) into two terms: one corresponding to the likelihood function of the model and the second to the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between the prior distribution and the variational posterior. In particular, we show both theoretically and empirically that there is a trade-off between these two terms in the overparameterized regime only when the KL is appropriately re-scaled with respect to the ratio between the the number of observations and neurons. We also illustrate our theoretical results with numerical experiments that highlight the critical choice of this ratio.