Bayesian Inference
Learning to Assess Danger from Movies for Cooperative Escape Planning in Hazardous Environments
Shree, Vikram, Allen, Sarah, Asfora, Beatriz, Banfi, Jacopo, Campbell, Mark
There has been a plethora of work towards improving robot perception and navigation, yet their application in hazardous environments, like during a fire or an earthquake, is still at a nascent stage. We hypothesize two key challenges here: first, it is difficult to replicate such scenarios in the real world, which is necessary for training and testing purposes. Second, current systems are not fully able to take advantage of the rich multi-modal data available in such hazardous environments. To address the first challenge, we propose to harness the enormous amount of visual content available in the form of movies and TV shows, and develop a dataset that can represent hazardous environments encountered in the real world. The data is annotated with high-level danger ratings for realistic disaster images, and corresponding keywords are provided that summarize the content of the scene. In response to the second challenge, we propose a multi-modal danger estimation pipeline for collaborative human-robot escape scenarios. Our Bayesian framework improves danger estimation by fusing information from robot's camera sensor and language inputs from the human. Furthermore, we augment the estimation module with a risk-aware planner that helps in identifying safer paths out of the dangerous environment. Through extensive simulations, we exhibit the advantages of our multi-modal perception framework that gets translated into tangible benefits such as higher success rate in a collaborative human-robot mission.
Motion Planning in Dynamic Environments Using Context-Aware Human Trajectory Prediction
Finean, Mark Nicholas, Petroviฤ, Luka, Merkt, Wolfgang, Markoviฤ, Ivan, Havoutis, Ioannis
Over the years, the separate fields of motion planning, mapping, and human trajectory prediction have advanced considerably. However, the literature is still sparse in providing practical frameworks that enable mobile manipulators to perform whole-body movements and account for the predicted motion of moving obstacles. Previous optimisation-based motion planning approaches that use distance fields have suffered from the high computational cost required to update the environment representation. We demonstrate that GPU-accelerated predicted composite distance fields significantly reduce the computation time compared to calculating distance fields from scratch. We integrate this technique with a complete motion planning and perception framework that accounts for the predicted motion of humans in dynamic environments, enabling reactive and pre-emptive motion planning that incorporates predicted motions. To achieve this, we propose and implement a novel human trajectory prediction method that combines intention recognition with trajectory optimisation-based motion planning. We validate our resultant framework on a real-world Toyota Human Support Robot (HSR) using live RGB-D sensor data from the onboard camera. In addition to providing analysis on a publicly available dataset, we release the Oxford Indoor Human Motion (Oxford-IHM) dataset and demonstrate state-of-the-art performance in human trajectory prediction. The Oxford-IHM dataset is a human trajectory prediction dataset in which people walk between regions of interest in an indoor environment. Both static and robot-mounted RGB-D cameras observe the people while tracked with a motion-capture system.
Geometric Methods for Sampling, Optimisation, Inference and Adaptive Agents
Barp, Alessandro, Da Costa, Lancelot, Franรงa, Guilherme, Friston, Karl, Girolami, Mark, Jordan, Michael I., Pavliotis, Grigorios A.
In this chapter, we identify fundamental geometric structures that underlie the problems of sampling, optimisation, inference and adaptive decision-making. Based on this identification, we derive algorithms that exploit these geometric structures to solve these problems efficiently. We show that a wide range of geometric theories emerge naturally in these fields, ranging from measure-preserving processes, information divergences, Poisson geometry, and geometric integration. Specifically, we explain how (i) leveraging the symplectic geometry of Hamiltonian systems enable us to construct (accelerated) sampling and optimisation methods, (ii) the theory of Hilbertian subspaces and Stein operators provides a general methodology to obtain robust estimators, (iii) preserving the information geometry of decision-making yields adaptive agents that perform active inference. Throughout, we emphasise the rich connections between these fields; e.g., inference draws on sampling and optimisation, and adaptive decision-making assesses decisions by inferring their counterfactual consequences. Our exposition provides a conceptual overview of underlying ideas, rather than a technical discussion, which can be found in the references herein.
3D Labeling Tool
Rachwan, John, Zalaket, Charbel
Training and testing supervised object detection models require a large collection of images with ground truth labels. Labels define object classes in the image, as well as their locations, shape, and possibly other information such as pose. The labeling process has proven extremely time consuming, even with the presence of manpower. We introduce a novel labeling tool for 2D images as well as 3D triangular meshes: 3D Labeling Tool (3DLT). This is a standalone, feature-heavy and cross-platform software that does not require installation and can run on Windows, macOS and Linux-based distributions. Instead of labeling the same object on every image separately like current tools, we use depth information to reconstruct a triangular mesh from said images and label the object only once on the aforementioned mesh. We use registration to simplify 3D labeling, outlier detection to improve 2D bounding box calculation and surface reconstruction to expand labeling possibility to large point clouds. Our tool is tested against state of the art methods and it greatly surpasses them in terms of speed while preserving accuracy and ease of use.
Statistical Hypothesis Testing Based on Machine Learning: Large Deviations Analysis
Braca, Paolo, Millefiori, Leonardo M., Aubry, Augusto, Marano, Stefano, De Maio, Antonio, Willett, Peter
We study the performance -- and specifically the rate at which the error probability converges to zero -- of Machine Learning (ML) classification techniques. Leveraging the theory of large deviations, we provide the mathematical conditions for a ML classifier to exhibit error probabilities that vanish exponentially, say $\sim \exp\left(-n\,I + o(n) \right)$, where $n$ is the number of informative observations available for testing (or another relevant parameter, such as the size of the target in an image) and $I$ is the error rate. Such conditions depend on the Fenchel-Legendre transform of the cumulant-generating function of the Data-Driven Decision Function (D3F, i.e., what is thresholded before the final binary decision is made) learned in the training phase. As such, the D3F and, consequently, the related error rate $I$, depend on the given training set, which is assumed of finite size. Interestingly, these conditions can be verified and tested numerically exploiting the available dataset, or a synthetic dataset, generated according to the available information on the underlying statistical model. In other words, the classification error probability convergence to zero and its rate can be computed on a portion of the dataset available for training. Coherently with the large deviations theory, we can also establish the convergence, for $n$ large enough, of the normalized D3F statistic to a Gaussian distribution. This property is exploited to set a desired asymptotic false alarm probability, which empirically turns out to be accurate even for quite realistic values of $n$. Furthermore, approximate error probability curves $\sim \zeta_n \exp\left(-n\,I \right)$ are provided, thanks to the refined asymptotic derivation (often referred to as exact asymptotics), where $\zeta_n$ represents the most representative sub-exponential terms of the error probabilities.
Relaxed Gaussian process interpolation: a goal-oriented approach to Bayesian optimization
Petit, Sรฉbastien J, Bect, Julien, Vazquez, Emmanuel
This work presents a new procedure for obtaining predictive distributions in the context of Gaussian process (GP) modeling, with a relaxation of the interpolation constraints outside some ranges of interest: the mean of the predictive distributions no longer necessarily interpolates the observed values when they are outside ranges of interest, but are simply constrained to remain outside. This method called relaxed Gaussian process (reGP) interpolation provides better predictive distributions in ranges of interest, especially in cases where a stationarity assumption for the GP model is not appropriate. It can be viewed as a goal-oriented method and becomes particularly interesting in Bayesian optimization, for example, for the minimization of an objective function, where good predictive distributions for low function values are important. When the expected improvement criterion and reGP are used for sequentially choosing evaluation points, the convergence of the resulting optimization algorithm is theoretically guaranteed (provided that the function to be optimized lies in the reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces attached to the known covariance of the underlying Gaussian process). Experiments indicate that using reGP instead of stationary GP models in Bayesian optimization is beneficial.
Classification via score-based generative modelling
In this work, we investigated the application of score-based gradient learning in discriminative and generative classification settings. Score function can be used to characterize data distribution as an alternative to density. It can be efficiently learned via score matching, and used to flexibly generate credible samples to enhance discriminative classification quality, to recover density and to build generative classifiers. We analysed the decision theories involving score-based representations, and performed experiments on simulated and real-world datasets, demonstrating its effectiveness in achieving and improving binary classification performance, and robustness to perturbations, particularly in high dimensions and imbalanced situations.
Inference of Regulatory Networks Through Temporally Sparse Data
A major goal in genomics is to properly capture the complex dynamical behaviors of gene regulatory networks (GRNs). This includes inferring the complex interactions between genes, which can be used for a wide range of genomics analyses, including diagnosis or prognosis of diseases and finding effective treatments for chronic diseases such as cancer. Boolean networks have emerged as a successful class of models for capturing the behavior of GRNs. In most practical settings, inference of GRNs should be achieved through limited and temporally sparse genomics data. A large number of genes in GRNs leads to a large possible topology candidate space, which often cannot be exhaustively searched due to the limitation in computational resources. This paper develops a scalable and efficient topology inference for GRNs using Bayesian optimization and kernel-based methods. Rather than an exhaustive search over possible topologies, the proposed method constructs a Gaussian Process (GP) with a topology-inspired kernel function to account for correlation in the likelihood function. Then, using the posterior distribution of the GP model, the Bayesian optimization efficiently searches for the topology with the highest likelihood value by optimally balancing between exploration and exploitation. The performance of the proposed method is demonstrated through comprehensive numerical experiments using a well-known mammalian cell-cycle network.
Bayesian Recurrent Units and the Forward-Backward Algorithm
Bittar, Alexandre, Garner, Philip N.
Using Bayes's theorem, we derive a unit-wise recurrence as well as a backward recursion similar to the forward-backward algorithm. The resulting Bayesian recurrent units can be integrated as recurrent neural networks within deep learning frameworks, while retaining a probabilistic interpretation from the direct correspondence with hidden Markov models. Whilst the contribution is mainly theoretical, experiments on speech recognition indicate that adding the derived units at the end of state-of-the-art recurrent architectures can improve the performance at a very low cost in terms of trainable parameters.