Leveraging labelled data from multiple domains to enable prediction in another domain without labels is a significant, yet challenging problem. To address this problem, we introduce the framework DAPDAG (\textbf{D}omain \textbf{A}daptation via \textbf{P}erturbed \textbf{DAG} Reconstruction) and propose to learn an auto-encoder that undertakes inference on population statistics given features and reconstructing a directed acyclic graph (DAG) as an auxiliary task. The underlying DAG structure is assumed invariant among observed variables whose conditional distributions are allowed to vary across domains led by a latent environmental variable $E$. The encoder is designed to serve as an inference device on $E$ while the decoder reconstructs each observed variable conditioned on its graphical parents in the DAG and the inferred $E$. We train the encoder and decoder jointly in an end-to-end manner and conduct experiments on synthetic and real datasets with mixed variables. Empirical results demonstrate that reconstructing the DAG benefits the approximate inference. Furthermore, our approach can achieve competitive performance against other benchmarks in prediction tasks, with better adaptation ability, especially in the target domain significantly different from the source domains.

Political science research often requires constructing a race/ethnicity proxy variable for datasets that do not contain it, like voter registration files, lists of electoral candidates, or political donation records. Constructing such a proxy is an important step for conducting ecological inference in voting rights litigation (Barreto et al. [2019], Imai and Khanna [2016]), redistricting (DeLuca and Curiel [2022], Kenny et al. [2021]), and substantive research on the role of race/ethnicity in politics (Enos [2016], Enos et al. [2019], Grumbach and Sahn [2020]). The most common method for proxying race/ethnicity is Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG), which uses Bayes' rule to compute a probability distribution over race/ethnicity categories conditional on a voter's surname and where they live (Elliott et al. [2008, 2009]). BISG has attained widespread popularity due to its parsimony, computational efficiency, and superior performance when compared to existing alternatives, namely spatial interpolation of Census racial-ethnic composition from Census geographies (Imai and Khanna [2016], Clark et al. [2021], Shah and Davis [2017]). While BISG performs well compared to the small suite of existing alternatives, it has not yet been benchmarked against machine learning (ML) models, which can produce race/ethnicity predictions from more flexible and potentially more accurate models. In this paper I present the results of such a benchmark. I train a range of machine learning models using voter registration data from Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and a portion of California where voters self-report their race/ethnicity upon registration. The registries in these states contain over 26 million labelled observations, which equates to greater than a five percent non-representative sample of the United States electorate. I then compare BISG against predictions from these models made out-of-state.

A much studied issue is the extent to which the confidence scores provided by machine learning algorithms are calibrated to ground truth probabilities. Our starting point is that calibration is seemingly incompatible with class weighting, a technique often employed when one class is less common (class imbalance) or with the hope of achieving some external objective (cost-sensitive learning). We provide a model-based explanation for this incompatibility and use our anthropomorphic model to generate a simple method of recovering likelihoods from an algorithm that is miscalibrated due to class weighting.

We consider matrix factorization (MF) with certain constraints, which finds wide applications in various areas. Leveraging variational inference (VI) and unitary approximate message passing (UAMP), we develop a Bayesian approach to MF with an efficient message passing implementation, called UAMPMF. With proper priors imposed on the factor matrices, UAMPMF can be used to solve many problems that can be formulated as MF, such as non negative matrix factorization, dictionary learning, compressive sensing with matrix uncertainty, robust principal component analysis, and sparse matrix factorization. Extensive numerical examples are provided to show that UAMPMF significantly outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms in terms of recovery accuracy, robustness and computational complexity.

Deep Gaussian Process (DGP) as a model prior in Bayesian learning intuitively exploits the expressive power in function composition. DGPs also offer diverse modeling capabilities, but inference is challenging because marginalization in latent function space is not tractable. With Bochner's theorem, DGP with squared exponential kernel can be viewed as a deep trigonometric network consisting of the random feature layers, sine and cosine activation units, and random weight layers. In the wide limit with a bottleneck, we show that the weight space view yields the same effective covariance functions which were obtained previously in function space. Also, varying the prior distributions over network parameters is equivalent to employing different kernels. As such, DGPs can be translated into the deep bottlenecked trig networks, with which the exact maximum a posteriori estimation can be obtained. Interestingly, the network representation enables the study of DGP's neural tangent kernel, which may also reveal the mean of the intractable predictive distribution. Statistically, unlike the shallow networks, deep networks of finite width have covariance deviating from the limiting kernel, and the inner and outer widths may play different roles in feature learning. Numerical simulations are present to support our findings.

In the reinforcement learning literature, there are many algorithms developed for either Contextual Bandit (CB) or Markov Decision Processes (MDP) environments. However, when deploying reinforcement learning algorithms in the real world, even with domain expertise, it is often difficult to know whether it is appropriate to treat a sequential decision making problem as a CB or an MDP. In other words, do actions affect future states, or only the immediate rewards? Making the wrong assumption regarding the nature of the environment can lead to inefficient learning, or even prevent the algorithm from ever learning an optimal policy, even with infinite data. In this work we develop an online algorithm that uses a Bayesian hypothesis testing approach to learn the nature of the environment. Our algorithm allows practitioners to incorporate prior knowledge about whether the environment is that of a CB or an MDP, and effectively interpolate between classical CB and MDP-based algorithms to mitigate against the effects of misspecifying the environment. We perform simulations and demonstrate that in CB settings our algorithm achieves lower regret than MDP-based algorithms, while in non-bandit MDP settings our algorithm is able to learn the optimal policy, often achieving comparable regret to MDP-based algorithms.

The recent introduction of gradient-based MCMC for discrete spaces holds great promise, and comes with the tantalising possibility of new discrete counterparts to celebrated continuous methods such as MALA and HMC. Towards this goal, we introduce several discrete Metropolis-Hastings samplers that are conceptually-inspired by MALA, and demonstrate their strong empirical performance across a range of challenging sampling problems in Bayesian inference and energy-based modelling. Methodologically, we identify why discrete analogues to preconditioned MALA are generally intractable, motivating us to introduce a new kind of preconditioning based on auxiliary variables and the `Gaussian integral trick'.

In view of its power in extracting feature representation, contrastive self-supervised learning has been successfully integrated into the practice of (deep) reinforcement learning (RL), leading to efficient policy learning in various applications. Despite its tremendous empirical successes, the understanding of contrastive learning for RL remains elusive. To narrow such a gap, we study how RL can be empowered by contrastive learning in a class of Markov decision processes (MDPs) and Markov games (MGs) with low-rank transitions. For both models, we propose to extract the correct feature representations of the low-rank model by minimizing a contrastive loss. Moreover, under the online setting, we propose novel upper confidence bound (UCB)-type algorithms that incorporate such a contrastive loss with online RL algorithms for MDPs or MGs. We further theoretically prove that our algorithm recovers the true representations and simultaneously achieves sample efficiency in learning the optimal policy and Nash equilibrium in MDPs and MGs. We also provide empirical studies to demonstrate the efficacy of the UCB-based contrastive learning method for RL. To the best of our knowledge, we provide the first provably efficient online RL algorithm that incorporates contrastive learning for representation learning. Our codes are available at https://github.com/Baichenjia/Contrastive-UCB.

There has been a plethora of work towards improving robot perception and navigation, yet their application in hazardous environments, like during a fire or an earthquake, is still at a nascent stage. We hypothesize two key challenges here: first, it is difficult to replicate such scenarios in the real world, which is necessary for training and testing purposes. Second, current systems are not fully able to take advantage of the rich multi-modal data available in such hazardous environments. To address the first challenge, we propose to harness the enormous amount of visual content available in the form of movies and TV shows, and develop a dataset that can represent hazardous environments encountered in the real world. The data is annotated with high-level danger ratings for realistic disaster images, and corresponding keywords are provided that summarize the content of the scene. In response to the second challenge, we propose a multi-modal danger estimation pipeline for collaborative human-robot escape scenarios. Our Bayesian framework improves danger estimation by fusing information from robot's camera sensor and language inputs from the human. Furthermore, we augment the estimation module with a risk-aware planner that helps in identifying safer paths out of the dangerous environment. Through extensive simulations, we exhibit the advantages of our multi-modal perception framework that gets translated into tangible benefits such as higher success rate in a collaborative human-robot mission.

Over the years, the separate fields of motion planning, mapping, and human trajectory prediction have advanced considerably. However, the literature is still sparse in providing practical frameworks that enable mobile manipulators to perform whole-body movements and account for the predicted motion of moving obstacles. Previous optimisation-based motion planning approaches that use distance fields have suffered from the high computational cost required to update the environment representation. We demonstrate that GPU-accelerated predicted composite distance fields significantly reduce the computation time compared to calculating distance fields from scratch. We integrate this technique with a complete motion planning and perception framework that accounts for the predicted motion of humans in dynamic environments, enabling reactive and pre-emptive motion planning that incorporates predicted motions. To achieve this, we propose and implement a novel human trajectory prediction method that combines intention recognition with trajectory optimisation-based motion planning. We validate our resultant framework on a real-world Toyota Human Support Robot (HSR) using live RGB-D sensor data from the onboard camera. In addition to providing analysis on a publicly available dataset, we release the Oxford Indoor Human Motion (Oxford-IHM) dataset and demonstrate state-of-the-art performance in human trajectory prediction. The Oxford-IHM dataset is a human trajectory prediction dataset in which people walk between regions of interest in an indoor environment. Both static and robot-mounted RGB-D cameras observe the people while tracked with a motion-capture system.