We develop a Bayesian approach to predict a continuous or binary outcome from data that are collected from multiple sources with a multi-way (i.e.. multidimensional tensor) structure. As a motivating example we consider molecular data from multiple 'omics sources, each measured over multiple developmental time points, as predictors of early-life iron deficiency (ID) in a rhesus monkey model. We use a linear model with a low-rank structure on the coefficients to capture multi-way dependence and model the variance of the coefficients separately across each source to infer their relative contributions. Conjugate priors facilitate an efficient Gibbs sampling algorithm for posterior inference, assuming a continuous outcome with normal errors or a binary outcome with a probit link. Simulations demonstrate that our model performs as expected in terms of misclassification rates and correlation of estimated coefficients with true coefficients, with large gains in performance by incorporating multi-way structure and modest gains when accounting for differing signal sizes across the different sources. Moreover, it provides robust classification of ID monkeys for our motivating application. Software in the form of R code is available at https://github.com/BiostatsKim/BayesMSMW .

Motivating explanations in Bayesian networks using MAP-independence Johan Kwisthout We introduce MAP-independence as a novel concept in Bayesian networks, indicating potential impact of an intermediate (hidden) variable to the MAP explanation. We discuss how this concept may contribute to justifying MAP explanations, for example in the context of a decision support system. Abstract In decision support systems the motivation and justification of the system's diagnosis or classification is crucial for the acceptance of the system by the human user. In Bayesian networks a diagnosis or classification is typically formalized as the computation of the most probable joint value assignment to the hypothesis variables, given the observed values of the evidence variables (generally known as the MAP problem). While solving the MAP problem gives the most probable explanation of the evidence, the computation is a black box as far as the human user is concerned and it does not give additional insights that allow the user to appreciate and accept the decision. For example, a user might want to know to whether an unobserved variable could potentially (upon observation) impact the explanation, or whether it is irrelevant in this aspect.

Social media have the potential to provide timely information about emergency situations and sudden events. However, finding relevant information among millions of posts being posted every day can be difficult, and developing a data analysis project usually requires time and technical skills. This study presents an approach that provides flexible support for analyzing social media, particularly during emergencies. Different use cases in which social media analysis can be adopted are introduced, and the challenges of retrieving information from large sets of posts are discussed. The focus is on analyzing images and text contained in social media posts and a set of automatic data processing tools for filtering, classification, and geolocation of content with a human-in-the-loop approach to support the data analyst. Such support includes both feedback and suggestions to configure automated tools, and crowdsourcing to gather inputs from citizens. The results are validated by discussing three case studies developed within the Crowd4SDG H2020 European project.

We commonly assume that data are a homogeneous set of observations when learning the structure of Bayesian networks. However, they often comprise different data sets that are related but not homogeneous because they have been collected in different ways or from different populations. In our previous work (Azzimonti, Corani and Scutari, 2021), we proposed a closed-form Bayesian Hierarchical Dirichlet score for discrete data that pools information across related data sets to learn a single encompassing network structure, while taking into account the differences in their probabilistic structures. In this paper, we provide an analogous solution for learning a Bayesian network from continuous data using mixed-effects models to pool information across the related data sets. We study its structural, parametric, predictive and classification accuracy and we show that it outperforms both conditional Gaussian Bayesian networks (that do not perform any pooling) and classical Gaussian Bayesian networks (that disregard the heterogeneous nature of the data). The improvement is marked for low sample sizes and for unbalanced data sets.

To facilitate the development of new models to bridge the gap between machine and human social intelligence, the recently proposed Baby Intuitions Benchmark (arXiv:2102.11938) provides a suite of tasks designed to evaluate commonsense reasoning about agents' goals and actions that even young infants exhibit. Here we present a principled Bayesian solution to this benchmark, based on a hierarchically Bayesian Theory of Mind (HBToM). By including hierarchical priors on agent goals and dispositions, inference over our HBToM model enables few-shot learning of the efficiency and preferences of an agent, which can then be used in commonsense plausibility judgements about subsequent agent behavior. This approach achieves near-perfect accuracy on most benchmark tasks, outperforming deep learning and imitation learning baselines while producing interpretable human-like inferences, demonstrating the advantages of structured Bayesian models of human social cognition.

Traditional model-based reinforcement learning (RL) methods generate forward rollout traces using the learnt dynamics model to reduce interactions with the real environment. The recent model-based RL method considers the way to learn a backward model that specifies the conditional probability of the previous state given the previous action and the current state to additionally generate backward rollout trajectories. However, in this type of model-based method, the samples derived from backward rollouts and those from forward rollouts are simply aggregated together to optimize the policy via the model-free RL algorithm, which may decrease both the sample efficiency and the convergence rate. This is because such an approach ignores the fact that backward rollout traces are often generated starting from some high-value states and are certainly more instructive for the agent to improve the behavior. In this paper, we propose the backward imitation and forward reinforcement learning (BIFRL) framework where the agent treats backward rollout traces as expert demonstrations for the imitation of excellent behaviors, and then collects forward rollout transitions for policy reinforcement. Consequently, BIFRL empowers the agent to both reach to and explore from high-value states in a more efficient manner, and further reduces the real interactions, making it potentially more suitable for real-robot learning. Moreover, a value-regularized generative adversarial network is introduced to augment the valuable states which are infrequently received by the agent. Theoretically, we provide the condition where BIFRL is superior to the baseline methods. Experimentally, we demonstrate that BIFRL acquires the better sample efficiency and produces the competitive asymptotic performance on various MuJoCo locomotion tasks compared against state-of-the-art model-based methods.

Strong AI requires the learning engine to be task non-specific and to automatically construct a dynamic hierarchy of internal features. By hierarchy, we mean, e.g., short road edges and short bush edges amount to intermediate features of landmarks; but intermediate features from tree shadows are distractors that must be disregarded by the high-level landmark concept. By dynamic, we mean the automatic selection of features while disregarding distractors is not static, but instead based on dynamic statistics (e.g. because of the instability of shadows in the context of landmark). By internal features, we mean that they are not only sensory, but also motor, so that context from motor (state) integrates with sensory inputs to become a context-based logic machine. We present why strong AI is necessary for any practical AI systems that work reliably in the real world. We then present a new generation of Developmental Networks 2 (DN-2). With many new novelties beyond DN-1, the most important novelty of DN-2 is that the inhibition area of each internal neuron is neuron-specific and dynamic. This enables DN-2 to automatically construct an internal hierarchy that is fluid, whose number of areas is not static as in DN-1. To optimally use the limited resource available, we establish that DN-2 is optimal in terms of maximum likelihood, under the condition of limited learning experience and limited resources. We also present how DN-2 can learn an emergent Universal Turing Machine (UTM). Together with the optimality, we present the optimal UTM. Experiments for real-world vision-based navigation, maze planning, and audition used DN-2. They successfully showed that DN-2 is for general purposes using natural and synthetic inputs. Their automatically constructed internal representation focuses on important features while being invariant to distractors and other irrelevant context-concepts.

Neural operators are a type of deep architecture that learns to solve (i.e. learns the nonlinear solution operator of) partial differential equations (PDEs). The current state of the art for these models does not provide explicit uncertainty quantification. This is arguably even more of a problem for this kind of tasks than elsewhere in machine learning, because the dynamical systems typically described by PDEs often exhibit subtle, multiscale structure that makes errors hard to spot by humans. In this work, we first provide a mathematically detailed Bayesian formulation of the ''shallow'' (linear) version of neural operators in the formalism of Gaussian processes. We then extend this analytic treatment to general deep neural operators using approximate methods from Bayesian deep learning. We extend previous results on neural operators by providing them with uncertainty quantification. As a result, our approach is able to identify cases, and provide structured uncertainty estimates, where the neural operator fails to predict well.

This work addresses meta-learning (ML) by considering deep networks with stochastic local winner-takes-all (LWTA) activations. This type of network units results in sparse representations from each model layer, as the units are organized into blocks where only one unit generates a non-zero output. The main operating principle of the introduced units rely on stochastic principles, as the network performs posterior sampling over competing units to select the winner. Therefore, the proposed networks are explicitly designed to extract input data representations of sparse stochastic nature, as opposed to the currently standard deterministic representation paradigm. Our approach produces state-of-the-art predictive accuracy on few-shot image classification and regression experiments, as well as reduced predictive error on an active learning setting; these improvements come with an immensely reduced computational cost.

Assumptions about invariances or symmetries in data can significantly increase the predictive power of statistical models. Many commonly used models in machine learning are constraint to respect certain symmetries in the data, such as translation equivariance in convolutional neural networks, and incorporation of new symmetry types is actively being studied. Yet, efforts to learn such invariances from the data itself remains an open research problem. It has been shown that marginal likelihood offers a principled way to learn invariances in Gaussian Processes. We propose a weight-space equivalent to this approach, by minimizing a lower bound on the marginal likelihood to learn invariances in neural networks resulting in naturally higher performing models.