The problem of sampling constrained continuous distributions has frequently appeared in many machine/statistical learning models. Many Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) sampling methods have been adapted to handle different types of constraints on the random variables. Among these methods, Hamilton Monte Carlo (HMC) and the related approaches have shown significant advantages in terms of computational efficiency compared to other counterparts. In this article, we first review HMC and some extended sampling methods, and then we concretely explain three constrained HMC-based sampling methods, reflection, reformulation, and spherical HMC. For illustration, we apply these methods to solve three well-known constrained sampling problems, truncated multivariate normal distributions, Bayesian regularized regression, and nonparametric density estimation. In this review, we also connect constrained sampling with another similar problem in the statistical design of experiments of constrained design space. Keywords: constrained sampling; Hamilton Monte Carlo; Riemannian Monte Carlo; regularized regression; truncated multivariate Gaussian.

We introduce a simulation-based, amortised Bayesian inference scheme to infer the parameters of random walks. Our approach learns the posterior distribution of the walks' parameters with a likelihood-free method. In the first step a graph neural network is trained on simulated data to learn optimized low-dimensional summary statistics of the random walk. In the second step an invertible neural network generates the posterior distribution of the parameters from the learnt summary statistics using variational inference. We apply our method to infer the parameters of the fractional Brownian motion model from single trajectories. The computational complexity of the amortized inference procedure scales linearly with trajectory length, and its precision scales similarly to the Cram{\'e}r-Rao bound over a wide range of lengths. The approach is robust to positional noise, and generalizes well to trajectories longer than those seen during training. Finally, we adapt this scheme to show that a finite decorrelation time in the environment can furthermore be inferred from individual trajectories.

Forecast combinations have flourished remarkably in the forecasting community and, in recent years, have become part of the mainstream of forecasting research and activities. Combining multiple forecasts produced from single (target) series is now widely used to improve accuracy through the integration of information gleaned from different sources, thereby mitigating the risk of identifying a single "best" forecast. Combination schemes have evolved from simple combination methods without estimation, to sophisticated methods involving time-varying weights, nonlinear combinations, correlations among components, and cross-learning. They include combining point forecasts and combining probabilistic forecasts. This paper provides an up-to-date review of the extensive literature on forecast combinations, together with reference to available open-source software implementations. We discuss the potential and limitations of various methods and highlight how these ideas have developed over time. Some important issues concerning the utility of forecast combinations are also surveyed. Finally, we conclude with current research gaps and potential insights for future research.

We study the community detection problem on a Gaussian mixture model, in which (1) vertices are divided into $k\geq 2$ distinct communities that are not necessarily equally-sized; (2) the Gaussian perturbations for different entries in the observation matrix are not necessarily independent or identically distributed. We prove necessary and sufficient conditions for the exact recovery of the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), and discuss the cases when these necessary and sufficient conditions give sharp threshold. Applications include the community detection on a graph where the Gaussian perturbations of observations on each edge is the sum of i.i.d.~Gaussian random variables on its end vertices, in which we explicitly obtain the threshold for the exact recovery of the MLE.

Over the last ten years, we have seen a significant increase in industrial data, tremendous improvement in computational power, and major theoretical advances in machine learning. This opens up an opportunity to use modern machine learning tools on large-scale nonlinear monitoring and control problems. This article provides a survey of recent results with applications in the process industry.

This paper presents recent methodological advances to perform simulation-based inference (SBI) of a general class of Bayesian hierarchical models (BHMs), while checking for model misspecification. Our approach is based on a two-step framework. First, the latent function that appears as second layer of the BHM is inferred and used to diagnose possible model misspecification. Second, target parameters of the trusted model are inferred via SBI. Simulations used in the first step are recycled for score compression, which is necessary to the second step. As a proof of concept, we apply our framework to a prey-predator model built upon the Lotka-Volterra equations and involving complex observational processes.

Multiclass probability estimation is the problem of estimating conditional probabilities of a data point belonging to a class given its covariate information. It has broad applications in statistical analysis and data science. Recently a class of weighted Support Vector Machines (wSVMs) has been developed to estimate class probabilities through ensemble learning for $K$-class problems (Wu, Zhang and Liu, 2010; Wang, Zhang and Wu, 2019), where $K$ is the number of classes. The estimators are robust and achieve high accuracy for probability estimation, but their learning is implemented through pairwise coupling, which demands polynomial time in $K$. In this paper, we propose two new learning schemes, the baseline learning and the One-vs-All (OVA) learning, to further improve wSVMs in terms of computational efficiency and estimation accuracy. In particular, the baseline learning has optimal computational complexity in the sense that it is linear in $K$. Though not being most efficient in computation, the OVA offers the best estimation accuracy among all the procedures under comparison. The resulting estimators are distribution-free and shown to be consistent. We further conduct extensive numerical experiments to demonstrate finite sample performance.

Leak detection in gas pipelines is an important and persistent problem in the Oil and Gas industry. This is particularly important as pipelines are the most common way of transporting natural gas. This research aims to study the ability of data-driven intelligent models to detect small leaks for a natural gas pipeline using basic operational parameters and then compare the intelligent models among themselves using existing performance metrics. This project applies the observer design technique to detect leaks in natural gas pipelines using a regressoclassification hierarchical model where an intelligent model acts as a regressor and a modified logistic regression model acts as a classifier. Five intelligent models (gradient boosting, decision trees, random forest, support vector machine and artificial neural network) are studied in this project using a pipeline data stream of four weeks. The results shows that while support vector machine and artificial neural networks are better regressors than the others, they do not provide the best results in leak detection due to their internal complexities and the volume of data used. The random forest and decision tree models are the most sensitive as they can detect a leak of 0.1% of nominal flow in about 2 hours. All the intelligent models had high reliability with zero false alarm rate in testing phase. The average time to leak detection for all the intelligent models was compared to a real time transient model in literature. The results show that intelligent models perform relatively well in the problem of leak detection. This result suggests that intelligent models could be used alongside a real time transient model to significantly improve leak detection results.

Probabilistic models such as Gaussian processes (GPs) are powerful tools to learn unknown dynamical systems from data for subsequent use in control design. While learning-based control has the potential to yield superior performance in demanding applications, robustness to uncertainty remains an important challenge. Since Bayesian methods quantify uncertainty of the learning results, it is natural to incorporate these uncertainties into a robust design. In contrast to most state-of-the-art approaches that consider worst-case estimates, we leverage the learning method's posterior distribution in the controller synthesis. The result is a more informed and, thus, more efficient trade-off between performance and robustness. We present a novel controller synthesis for linearized GP dynamics that yields robust controllers with respect to a probabilistic stability margin. The formulation is based on a recently proposed algorithm for linear quadratic control synthesis, which we extend by giving probabilistic robustness guarantees in the form of credibility bounds for the system's stability.Comparisons to existing methods based on worst-case and certainty-equivalence designs reveal superior performance and robustness properties of the proposed method.

Graph-to-text (G2T) generation and text-to-graph (T2G) triple extraction are two essential tasks for constructing and applying knowledge graphs. Existing unsupervised approaches turn out to be suitable candidates for jointly learning the two tasks due to their avoidance of using graph-text parallel data. However, they are composed of multiple modules and still require both entity information and relation type in the training process. To this end, we propose INFINITY, a simple yet effective unsupervised approach that does not require external annotation tools or additional parallel information. It achieves fully unsupervised graph-text mutual conversion for the first time. Specifically, INFINITY treats both G2T and T2G as a bidirectional sequence generation task by fine-tuning only one pretrained seq2seq model. A novel back-translation-based framework is then designed to automatically generate continuous synthetic parallel data. To obtain reasonable graph sequences with structural information from source texts, INFINITY employs reward-based training loss by leveraging the advantage of reward augmented maximum likelihood. As a fully unsupervised framework, INFINITY is empirically verified to outperform state-of-the-art baselines for G2T and T2G tasks.