This work identifies the existence and cause of a type of posterior collapse that frequently occurs in the Bayesian deep learning practice. For a general linear latent variable model that includes linear variational autoencoders as a special case, we precisely identify the nature of posterior collapse to be the competition between the likelihood and the regularization of the mean due to the prior. Our result suggests that posterior collapse may be related to neural collapse and dimensional collapse and could be a subclass of a general problem of learning for deeper architectures.

While a large body of work has scrutinized the meaning of conditional sentences, considerably less attention has been paid to formal models of their pragmatic use and interpretation. Here, we take a probabilistic approach to pragmatic reasoning about indicative conditionals which flexibly integrates gradient beliefs about richly structured world states. We model listeners' update of their prior beliefs about the causal structure of the world and the joint probabilities of the consequent and antecedent based on assumptions about the speaker's utterance production protocol. We show that, when supplied with natural contextual assumptions, our model uniformly explains a number of inferences attested in the literature, including epistemic inferences, conditional perfection and the dependency between antecedent and consequent of a conditional. We argue that this approach also helps explain three puzzles introduced by Douven (2012) about updating with conditionals: depending on the utterance context, the listener's belief in the antecedent may increase, decrease or remain unchanged.

We propose a general purpose Bayesian inference algorithm for expensive likelihoods, replacing the stochastic term in the Langevin equation with a deterministic density gradient term. The particle density is evaluated from the current particle positions using a Normalizing Flow (NF), which is differentiable and has good generalization properties in high dimensions. We take advantage of NF preconditioning and NF based Metropolis-Hastings updates for a faster convergence. We show on various examples that the method is competitive against state of the art sampling methods.

In recent years, we have seen a handful of work on inference algorithms over non-stationary data streams. Given their flexibility, Bayesian non-parametric models are a good candidate for these scenarios. However, reliable streaming inference under the concept drift phenomenon is still an open problem for these models. In this work, we propose a variational inference algorithm for Dirichlet process mixture models. Our proposal deals with the concept drift by including an exponential forgetting over the prior global parameters. Our algorithm allows to adapt the learned model to the concept drifts automatically. We perform experiments in both synthetic and real data, showing that the proposed model is competitive with the state-of-the-art algorithms in the density estimation problem, and it outperforms them in the clustering problem.

We provide an efficient unified plug-in approach for estimating symmetric properties of distributions given $n$ independent samples. Our estimator is based on profile-maximum-likelihood (PML) and is sample optimal for estimating various symmetric properties when the estimation error $\epsilon \gg n^{-1/3}$. This result improves upon the previous best accuracy threshold of $\epsilon \gg n^{-1/4}$ achievable by polynomial time computable PML-based universal estimators [ACSS21, ACSS20]. Our estimator reaches a theoretical limit for universal symmetric property estimation as [Han21] shows that a broad class of universal estimators (containing many well known approaches including ours) cannot be sample optimal for every $1$-Lipschitz property when $\epsilon \ll n^{-1/3}$.

Whereas diverse variations of diffusion models exist, extending the linear diffusion into a nonlinear diffusion process is investigated by very few works. The nonlinearity effect has been hardly understood, but intuitively, there would be promising diffusion patterns to efficiently train the generative distribution towards the data distribution. This paper introduces a data-adaptive nonlinear diffusion process for score-based diffusion models. The proposed Implicit Nonlinear Diffusion Model (INDM) learns by combining a normalizing flow and a diffusion process. Specifically, INDM implicitly constructs a nonlinear diffusion on the \textit{data space} by leveraging a linear diffusion on the \textit{latent space} through a flow network. This flow network is key to forming a nonlinear diffusion, as the nonlinearity depends on the flow network. This flexible nonlinearity improves the learning curve of INDM to nearly Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) against the non-MLE curve of DDPM++, which turns out to be an inflexible version of INDM with the flow fixed as an identity mapping. Also, the discretization of INDM shows the sampling robustness. In experiments, INDM achieves the state-of-the-art FID of 1.75 on CelebA. We release our code at https://github.com/byeonghu-na/INDM.

Computer simulations have proven a valuable tool for understanding complex phenomena across the sciences. However, the utility of simulators for modelling and forecasting purposes is often restricted by low data quality, as well as practical limits to model fidelity. In order to circumvent these difficulties, we argue that modellers must treat simulators as idealistic representations of the true data generating process, and consequently should thoughtfully consider the risk of model misspecification. In this work we revisit neural posterior estimation (NPE), a class of algorithms that enable black-box parameter inference in simulation models, and consider the implication of a simulation-to-reality gap. While recent works have demonstrated reliable performance of these methods, the analyses have been performed using synthetic data generated by the simulator model itself, and have therefore only addressed the well-specified case. In this paper, we find that the presence of misspecification, in contrast, leads to unreliable inference when NPE is used naively. As a remedy we argue that principled scientific inquiry with simulators should incorporate a model criticism component, to facilitate interpretable identification of misspecification and a robust inference component, to fit 'wrong but useful' models. We propose robust neural posterior estimation (RNPE), an extension of NPE to simultaneously achieve both these aims, through explicitly modelling the discrepancies between simulations and the observed data. We assess the approach on a range of artificially misspecified examples, and find RNPE performs well across the tasks, whereas naively using NPE leads to misleading and erratic posteriors.

Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) are generative models of complex systems. They rely on conditional independence assumptions between variables to learn sparse representations which can be visualized in a form of a graph. Such models are used for domain exploration and structure discovery in poorly understood domains. This work introduces a novel technique to perform sparse graph recovery by optimizing deep unrolled networks. Assuming that the input data $X\in\mathbb{R}^{M\times D}$ comes from an underlying multivariate Gaussian distribution, we apply a deep model on $X$ that outputs the precision matrix $\hat{\Theta}$, which can also be interpreted as the adjacency matrix. Our model, uGLAD, builds upon and extends the state-of-the-art model GLAD to the unsupervised setting. The key benefits of our model are (1) uGLAD automatically optimizes sparsity-related regularization parameters leading to better performance than existing algorithms. (2) We introduce multi-task learning based `consensus' strategy for robust handling of missing data in an unsupervised setting. We evaluate model results on synthetic Gaussian data, non-Gaussian data generated from Gene Regulatory Networks, and present a case study in anaerobic digestion.

The Kalman filter (KF) is a widely-used algorithm for tracking the latent state of a dynamical system from noisy observations. For systems that are well-described by linear Gaussian state space models, the KF minimizes the mean-squared error (MSE). However, in practice, observations are corrupted by outliers, severely impairing the KFs performance. In this work, an outlier-insensitive KF is proposed, where robustness is achieved by modeling each potential outlier as a normally distributed random variable with unknown variance (NUV). The NUVs variances are estimated online, using both expectation-maximization (EM) and alternating maximization (AM). The former was previously proposed for the task of smoothing with outliers and was adapted here to filtering, while both EM and AM obtained the same performance and outperformed the other algorithms, the AM approach is less complex and thus requires 40 percentage less run-time. Our empirical study demonstrates that the MSE of our proposed outlier-insensitive KF outperforms previously proposed algorithms, and that for data clean of outliers, it reverts to the classic KF, i.e., MSE optimality is preserved

Retraining deep neural networks when new data arrives is typically computationally expensive. Moreover, certain applications do not allow such costly retraining due to time or computational constraints. Fast Bayesian updates are a possible solution to this issue. Therefore, we propose a Bayesian update based on Monte-Carlo samples and a last-layer Laplace approximation for different Bayesian neural network types, i.e., Dropout, Ensemble, and Spectral Normalized Neural Gaussian Process (SNGP). In a large-scale evaluation study, we show that our updates combined with SNGP represent a fast and competitive alternative to costly retraining. As a use case, we combine the Bayesian updates for SNGP with different sequential query strategies to exemplarily demonstrate their improved selection performance in active learning. Extending a dataset with new samples to train a deep learning model typically poses two problems. Updating a trained model may cause catastrophic forgetting while retraining may require high computational effort. Although the generalization performance typically justifies exhaustive retraining procedures, in some applications, retraining is not possible due to, for example, (1) the high number of retraining procedures in applications where data arrives sequentially and immediate updates are beneficial, e.g., in active learning (Settles, 2009) or when working on data streams (Sahoo et al., 2018), (2) the lack of computational power, e.g., for execution on embedded hardware (Taylor et al., 2018), (3) privacy reasons, e.g., when new data cannot be sent to distributed computing units (Taylor et al., 2018). Therefore, we suggest using Bayesian neural networks (BNNs, Fortuin, 2022) in the above examples as they not only provide additional uncertainty estimates or out-of-distribution detection capabilities but also allow updating the predictions with additional data without retraining the network (Kirsch et al., 2022). In this article, we develop a fast Bayesian update algorithm for BNNs. Figure 1 (left) shows the idea of sampling an ensemble of probabilistic hypotheses, each representing a possible true solution for the learning task (white samples).