The problem of sequentially transferring from a source object track and a model to another Bayesian filter has become ubiquitous. Due to the lack of a structural model that can capture the dependence among different models, the transfer may not be fully specified. In this paper, we introduce a novel Bayesian model that accounts for the model-jump from which the object can choose a model and follow. We aim to track the trajectory of the object while sequentially transferring from the source object to the target object. The main idea is to impute the dynamical model while tracking the object and estimating the state parameters of the moving object according to discretized dynamic systems. We demonstrate this procedure can handle the model mismatch as it sequentially corrects the predictive model. Particularly, for a fixed number of motion models, the object can learn what motion to follow at each time step. We employ a prior model for each model and then adaptively correct for changing one model to another to robustly estimate object trajectory under various motions. More concretely, we propose a robust Bayesian recipe to handle the model-jump and then integrate it with a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to sample from the posterior distribution. We demonstrate through experiments the advantage of accounting for model-jump in our proposed method for knowledge transfer between learning tasks in Bayesian transfer learning.

We focus on using the predictive uncertainty signal calculated by Bayesian neural networks to guide learning in the self-same task the model is being trained on. Not opting for costly Monte Carlo sampling of weights, we propagate the approximate hidden variance in an end-to-end manner, throughout a variational Bayesian adaptation of a ResNet with attention and squeeze-and-excitation blocks, in order to identify data samples that should contribute less into the loss value calculation. We, thus, propose uncertainty-aware, data-specific label smoothing, where the smoothing probability is dependent on this epistemic uncertainty. We show that, through the explicit usage of the epistemic uncertainty in the loss calculation, the variational model is led to improved predictive and calibration performance. This core machine learning methodology is exemplified at wildlife call detection, from audio recordings made via passive acoustic monitoring equipment in the animals' natural habitats, with the future goal of automating large scale annotation in a trustworthy manner.

The task of ranking individuals or teams, based on a set of comparisons between pairs, arises in various contexts, including sporting competitions and the analysis of dominance hierarchies among animals and humans. Given data on which competitors beat which others, the challenge is to rank the competitors from best to worst. Here we study the problem of computing rankings when there are multiple, potentially conflicting modes of comparison, such as multiple types of dominance behaviors among animals. We assume that we do not know a priori what information each behavior conveys about the ranking, or even whether they convey any information at all. Nonetheless we show that it is possible to compute a ranking in this situation and present a fast method for doing so, based on a combination of an expectation-maximization algorithm and a modified Bradley-Terry model. We give a selection of example applications to both animal and human competition.

Sharpness-aware minimization (SAM) aims to improve the generalisation of gradient-based learning by seeking out flat minima. In this work, we establish connections between SAM and Mean-Field Variational Inference (MFVI) of neural network parameters. We show that both these methods have interpretations as optimizing notions of flatness, and when using the reparametrisation trick, they both boil down to calculating the gradient at a perturbed version of the current mean parameter. This thinking motivates our study of algorithms that combine or interpolate between SAM and MFVI. We evaluate the proposed variational algorithms on several benchmark datasets, and compare their performance to variants of SAM. Taking a broader perspective, our work suggests that SAM-like updates can be used as a drop-in replacement for the reparametrisation trick.

Despite the impressive performance of Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems, their robustness remains elusive and constitutes a key issue that impedes large-scale adoption. Robustness has been studied in many domains of AI, yet with different interpretations across domains and contexts. In this work, we systematically survey the recent progress to provide a reconciled terminology of concepts around AI robustness. We introduce three taxonomies to organize and describe the literature both from a fundamental and applied point of view: 1) robustness by methods and approaches in different phases of the machine learning pipeline; 2) robustness for specific model architectures, tasks, and systems; and in addition, 3) robustness assessment methodologies and insights, particularly the trade-offs with other trustworthiness properties. Finally, we identify and discuss research gaps and opportunities and give an outlook on the field. We highlight the central role of humans in evaluating and enhancing AI robustness, considering the necessary knowledge humans can provide, and discuss the need for better understanding practices and developing supportive tools in the future.

We introduce a simple modification to the standard maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) framework. Rather than maximizing a single unconditional likelihood of the data under the model, we maximize a family of noise conditional likelihoods consisting of the data perturbed by a continuum of noise levels. We find that models trained this way are more robust to noise, obtain higher test likelihoods, and generate higher quality images. They can also be sampled from via a novel score-based sampling scheme which combats the classical covariate shift problem that occurs during sample generation in autoregressive models. Applying this augmentation to autoregressive image models, we obtain 3.32 bits per dimension on the ImageNet 64x64 dataset, and substantially improve the quality of generated samples in terms of the Frechet Inception distance (FID) -- from 37.50 to 12.09 on the CIFAR-10 dataset. Likelihood maximization models, i.e., models trained by maximizing log-likelihood, are a leading class of modern generative models. Of these, autoregressive models boast state-of-the-art performance in many domains, including images Child et al. (2019), text Vaswani et al. (2017), and audio Oord et al. (2016). However, while log-likelihood is broadly agreed upon as one of the most rigorous metrics for goodness-of-fit in statistical and generative modeling, models with high likelihoods do not necessarily produce samples of high visual quality.

Applications of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) combined with Machine Learning (ML) techniques enhance real-time performance tracking and increase structural integrity awareness of civil, aerospace and automotive infrastructures. This SHM-ML synergy has gained popularity in the last years thanks to the anticipation of maintenance provided by arising ML algorithms and their ability of handling large quantities of data and considering their influence in the problem. In this paper we develop a novel ML nearest-neighbors-alike algorithm based on the principle of maximum entropy to predict fatigue damage (Palmgren-Miner index) in composite materials by processing the signals of Lamb Waves -- a non-destructive SHM technique -- with other meaningful features such as layup parameters and stiffness matrices calculated from the Classical Laminate Theory (CLT). The full data analysis cycle is applied to a dataset of delamination experiments in composites. The predictions achieve a good level of accuracy, similar to other ML algorithms, e.g. Neural Networks or Gradient-Boosted Trees, and computation times are of the same order of magnitude. The key advantages of our proposal are: (1) The automatic determination of all the parameters involved in the prediction, so no hyperparameters have to be set beforehand, which saves time devoted to hypertuning the model and also represents an advantage for autonomous, self-supervised SHM. (2) No training is required, which, in an \textit{online learning} context where streams of data are fed continuously to the model, avoids repeated training -- essential for reliable real-time, continuous monitoring.

We aim for source-free domain adaptation, where the task is to deploy a model pre-trained on source domains to target domains. The challenges stem from the distribution shift from the source to the target domain, coupled with the unavailability of any source data and labeled target data for optimization. Rather than fine-tuning the model by updating the parameters, we propose to perturb the source model to achieve adaptation to target domains. We introduce perturbations into the model parameters by variational Bayesian inference in a probabilistic framework. By doing so, we can effectively adapt the model to the target domain while largely preserving the discriminative ability. Importantly, we demonstrate the theoretical connection to learning Bayesian neural networks, which proves the generalizability of the perturbed model to target domains. To enable more efficient optimization, we further employ a parameter sharing strategy, which substantially reduces the learnable parameters compared to a fully Bayesian neural network. Our model perturbation provides a new probabilistic way for domain adaptation which enables efficient adaptation to target domains while maximally preserving knowledge in source models. Experiments on several source-free benchmarks under three different evaluation settings verify the effectiveness of the proposed variational model perturbation for source-free domain adaptation.

The Bayesian transformed Gaussian process (BTG) model, proposed by Kedem and Oliviera, is a fully Bayesian counterpart to the warped Gaussian process (WGP) and marginalizes out a joint prior over input warping and kernel hyperparameters. This fully Bayesian treatment of hyperparameters often provides more accurate regression estimates and superior uncertainty propagation, but is prohibitively expensive. The BTG posterior predictive distribution, itself estimated through high-dimensional integration, must be inverted in order to perform model prediction. To make the Bayesian approach practical and comparable in speed to maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE), we propose principled and fast techniques for computing with BTG. Our framework uses doubly sparse quadrature rules, tight quantile bounds, and rank-one matrix algebra to enable both fast model prediction and model selection. These scalable methods allow us to regress over higher-dimensional datasets and apply BTG with layered transformations that greatly improve its expressibility. We demonstrate that BTG achieves superior empirical performance over MLE-based models.

We present Sequential Neural Variational Inference (SNVI), an approach to perform Bayesian inference in models with intractable likelihoods. SNVI combines likelihood-estimation (or likelihood-ratio-estimation) with variational inference to achieve a scalable simulation-based inference approach. SNVI maintains the flexibility of likelihood(-ratio) estimation to allow arbitrary proposals for simulations, while simultaneously providing a functional estimate of the posterior distribution without requiring MCMC sampling. We present several variants of SNVI and demonstrate that they are substantially more computationally efficient than previous algorithms, without loss of accuracy on benchmark tasks. We apply SNVI to a neuroscience model of the pyloric network in the crab and demonstrate that it can infer the posterior distribution with one order of magnitude fewer simulations than previously reported. SNVI vastly reduces the computational cost of simulation-based inference while maintaining accuracy and flexibility, making it possible to tackle problems that were previously inaccessible.