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 Bayesian Inference


Interventions, Where and How? Experimental Design for Causal Models at Scale

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Causal discovery from observational and interventional data is challenging due to limited data and non-identifiability: factors that introduce uncertainty in estimating the underlying structural causal model (SCM). Selecting experiments (interventions) based on the uncertainty arising from both factors can expedite the identification of the SCM. Existing methods in experimental design for causal discovery from limited data either rely on linear assumptions for the SCM or select only the intervention target. This work incorporates recent advances in Bayesian causal discovery into the Bayesian optimal experimental design framework, allowing for active causal discovery of large, nonlinear SCMs while selecting both the interventional target and the value. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed method on synthetic graphs (Erdos-R\`enyi, Scale Free) for both linear and nonlinear SCMs as well as on the \emph{in-silico} single-cell gene regulatory network dataset, DREAM.


A Survey of Machine Unlearning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Today, computer systems hold large amounts of personal data. Yet while such an abundance of data allows breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, and especially machine learning (ML), its existence can be a threat to user privacy, and it can weaken the bonds of trust between humans and AI. Recent regulations now require that, on request, private information about a user must be removed from both computer systems and from ML models, i.e. ``the right to be forgotten''). While removing data from back-end databases should be straightforward, it is not sufficient in the AI context as ML models often `remember' the old data. Contemporary adversarial attacks on trained models have proven that we can learn whether an instance or an attribute belonged to the training data. This phenomenon calls for a new paradigm, namely machine unlearning, to make ML models forget about particular data. It turns out that recent works on machine unlearning have not been able to completely solve the problem due to the lack of common frameworks and resources. Therefore, this paper aspires to present a comprehensive examination of machine unlearning's concepts, scenarios, methods, and applications. Specifically, as a category collection of cutting-edge studies, the intention behind this article is to serve as a comprehensive resource for researchers and practitioners seeking an introduction to machine unlearning and its formulations, design criteria, removal requests, algorithms, and applications. In addition, we aim to highlight the key findings, current trends, and new research areas that have not yet featured the use of machine unlearning but could benefit greatly from it. We hope this survey serves as a valuable resource for ML researchers and those seeking to innovate privacy technologies. Our resources are publicly available at https://github.com/tamlhp/awesome-machine-unlearning.


Cox-Hawkes: doubly stochastic spatiotemporal Poisson processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Hawkes processes are a class of point processes that can model self or mutual excitation between events, in which the occurrence of one event triggers additional events, for example: a violent event in one geographical area on a given day encourages another violent event in an area nearby the next day. A unique feature of Hawkes processes is their ability to model exogenous and endogenous "causes" of events. An exogenous cause happens by the external addition of a event, while endogenous events are self-excited from previous events by a triggering kernel. An example of the difference between these two mechanisms is in disease transmission - an exogenous event could be a zoonosis event such as the transmission of Influenza from birds, while endogenous events are subsequent human to human transmission. Due to their flexibility and mathematical tractability, Hawkes processes have been extensively used in the literature in a series of applications. They have modelled among others, neural activity (Linderman et al. 2014), earthquakes (Ogata 1988), violence (Loeffler & Flaxman 2018, Holbrook et al. 2021) and social interactions (Miscouridou et al. 2018). The majority of applied research on Hawkes processes focuses on the purely temporal settings where events occur and are subsequently triggered only in time. However, many practical problems require the inclusion of a spatial dimension. This inclusion is motivated by several factors, first, natural phenomena that self-excite tend to do so both spatial and temporally e.g.


RL with KL penalties is better viewed as Bayesian inference

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement learning (RL) is frequently employed in fine-tuning large language models (LMs), such as GPT-3, to penalize them for undesirable features of generated sequences, such as offensiveness, social bias, harmfulness or falsehood. The RL formulation involves treating the LM as a policy and updating it to maximise the expected value of a reward function which captures human preferences, such as non-offensiveness. In this paper, we analyze challenges associated with treating a language model as an RL policy and show how avoiding those challenges requires moving beyond the RL paradigm. We start by observing that the standard RL approach is flawed as an objective for fine-tuning LMs because it leads to distribution collapse: turning the LM into a degenerate distribution. Then, we analyze KL-regularised RL, a widely used recipe for fine-tuning LMs, which additionally constrains the fine-tuned LM to stay close to its original distribution in terms of Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. We show that KL-regularised RL is equivalent to variational inference: approximating a Bayesian posterior which specifies how to update a prior LM to conform with evidence provided by the reward function. We argue that this Bayesian inference view of KL-regularised RL is more insightful than the typically employed RL perspective. The Bayesian inference view explains how KL-regularised RL avoids the distribution collapse problem and offers a first-principles derivation for its objective. While this objective happens to be equivalent to RL (with a particular choice of parametric reward), there exist other objectives for fine-tuning LMs which are no longer equivalent to RL. That observation leads to a more general point: RL is not an adequate formal framework for problems such as fine-tuning language models. These problems are best viewed as Bayesian inference: approximating a pre-defined target distribution.


On Representations of Mean-Field Variational Inference

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The mean field variational inference (MFVI) formulation restricts the general Bayesian inference problem to the subspace of product measures. We present a framework to analyse MFVI algorithms, which is inspired by a similar development for general variational Bayesian formulations. Our approach enables the MFVI problem to be represented in three different manners: a gradient flow on Wasserstein space, a system of Fokker-Planck-like equations and a diffusion process. Rigorous guarantees are established to show that a time-discretized implementation of the coordinate ascent variational inference algorithm in the product Wasserstein space of measures yields a gradient flow in the limit. A similar result is obtained for their associated densities, with the limit being given by a quasi-linear partial differential equation. A popular class of practical algorithms falls in this framework, which provides tools to establish convergence. We hope this framework could be used to guarantee convergence of algorithms in a variety of approaches, old and new, to solve variational inference problems.


Improving aircraft performance using machine learning: a review

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Climate change and increasing resource scarcity are challenges that Europe needs to face in the coming decades. All this has a direct impact on air transport, which is struggling to maintain its performance and competitiveness while ensuring a development focused on sustainable mobility. Research and innovation are essential to maintain the capabilities of the aviation industry, driven by the rise of new markets and new competitors as a result of globalization. A new longterm vision for the aeronautics sector is essential to ensure its successful advancement. In this line, new requirements for the future aviation industry have been defined by the ACARE Flightpath 2050, a Group of Recognized Personalities in the aeronautic sector, including stakeholders from the aeronautics industry, air traffic management, airports, airlines, energy providers and the research community. Aeronautics and air transport comprises both: air vehicle and system technology.


Understanding Non-linearity in Graph Neural Networks from the Bayesian-Inference Perspective

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown superiority in many prediction tasks over graphs due to their impressive capability of capturing nonlinear relations in graph-structured data. However, for node classification tasks, often, only marginal improvement of GNNs over their linear counterparts has been observed. Previous works provide very few understandings of this phenomenon. In this work, we resort to Bayesian learning to deeply investigate the functions of non-linearity in GNNs for node classification tasks. Given a graph generated from the statistical model CSBM, we observe that the max-a-posterior estimation of a node label given its own and neighbors' attributes consists of two types of non-linearity, a possibly non-linear transformation of node attributes and a ReLU-activated feature aggregation from neighbors. The latter surprisingly matches the type of non-linearity used in many GNN models. By further imposing Gaussian assumption on node attributes, we prove that the superiority of those ReLU activations is only significant when the node attributes are far more informative than the graph structure, which nicely matches many previous empirical observations. A similar argument can be achieved when there is a distribution shift of node attributes between the training and testing datasets. Finally, we verify our theory on both synthetic and real-world networks.


Model-based Lifelong Reinforcement Learning with Bayesian Exploration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a model-based lifelong reinforcement-learning approach that estimates a hierarchical Bayesian posterior distilling the common structure shared across different tasks. The learned posterior combined with a sample-based Bayesian exploration procedure increases the sample efficiency of learning across a family of related tasks. We first derive an analysis of the relationship between the sample complexity and the initialization quality of the posterior in the finite MDP setting. We next scale the approach to continuous-state domains by introducing a Variational Bayesian Lifelong Reinforcement Learning algorithm that can be combined with recent model-based deep RL methods, and that exhibits backward transfer. Experimental results on several challenging domains show that our algorithms achieve both better forward and backward transfer performance than state-of-the-art lifelong RL methods.


On Margins and Generalisation for Voting Classifiers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study the generalisation properties of majority voting on finite ensembles of classifiers, proving margin-based generalisation bounds via the PAC-Bayes theory. These provide state-of-the-art guarantees on a number of classification tasks. Our central results leverage the Dirichlet posteriors studied recently by Zantedeschi et al. [2021] for training voting classifiers; in contrast to that work our bounds apply to non-randomised votes via the use of margins. Our contributions add perspective to the debate on the "margins theory" proposed by Schapire et al. [1998] for the generalisation of ensemble classifiers.


Learning Preferences for Interactive Autonomy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

When robots enter everyday human environments, they need to understand their tasks and how they should perform those tasks. To encode these, reward functions, which specify the objective of a robot, are employed. However, designing reward functions can be extremely challenging for complex tasks and environments. A promising approach is to learn reward functions from humans. Recently, several robot learning works embrace this approach and leverage human demonstrations to learn the reward functions. Known as inverse reinforcement learning, this approach relies on a fundamental assumption: humans can provide near-optimal demonstrations to the robot. Unfortunately, this is rarely the case: human demonstrations to the robot are often suboptimal due to various reasons, e.g., difficulty of teleoperation, robot having high degrees of freedom, or humans' cognitive limitations. This thesis is an attempt towards learning reward functions from human users by using other, more reliable data modalities. Specifically, we study how reward functions can be learned using comparative feedback, in which the human user compares multiple robot trajectories instead of (or in addition to) providing demonstrations. To this end, we first propose various forms of comparative feedback, e.g., pairwise comparisons, best-of-many choices, rankings, scaled comparisons; and describe how a robot can use these various forms of human feedback to infer a reward function, which may be parametric or non-parametric. Next, we propose active learning techniques to enable the robot to ask for comparison feedback that optimizes for the expected information that will be gained from that user feedback. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of our methods in a wide variety of domains, ranging from autonomous driving simulations to home robotics, from standard reinforcement learning benchmarks to lower-body exoskeletons.