Missing data is common in real-world datasets and is a problem for many estimation techniques. We have developed a variational Bayesian method to perform Independent Component Analysis (ICA) on high-dimensional data containing missing entries. Missing data are handled naturally in the Bayesian framework by integrating the generative density model. Mod- eling the distributions of the independent sources with mixture of Gaus- sians allows sources to be estimated with different kurtosis and skewness. The variational Bayesian method automatically determines the dimen- sionality of the data and yields an accurate density model for the ob- served data without overfitting problems.

An essential step in understanding the function of sensory nervous sys- tems is to characterize as accurately as possible the stimulus-response function (SRF) of the neurons that relay and process sensory informa- tion. One increasingly common experimental approach is to present a rapidly varying complex stimulus to the animal while recording the re- sponses of one or more neurons, and then to directly estimate a func- tional transformation of the input that accounts for the neuronal firing. The estimation techniques usually employed, such as Wiener filtering or other correlation-based estimation of the Wiener or Volterra kernels, are equivalent to maximum likelihood estimation in a Gaussian-output-noise regression model. We explore the use of Bayesian evidence-optimization techniques to condition these estimates. We show that by learning hyper- parameters that control the smoothness and sparsity of the transfer func- tion it is possible to improve dramatically the quality of SRF estimates, as measured by their success in predicting responses to novel input.

We present an analysis of concentration-of-expectation phenomena in layered Bayesian networks that use generalized linear models as the local conditional probabilities. This framework encompasses a wide variety of probability distributions, including both discrete and continuous random variables. We utilize ideas from large deviation analysis and the delta method to devise and evaluate a class of approximate inference algo- rithms for layered Bayesian networks that have superior asymptotic error bounds and very fast computation time.

Recent work has examined the estimation of models of stimulus-driven neural activity in which some linear filtering process is followed by a nonlinear, probabilistic spiking stage. We analyze the estimation of one such model for which this nonlinear step is implemented by a noisy, leaky, integrate-and-fire mechanism with a spike-dependent after- current. This model is a biophysically plausible alternative to models with Poisson (memory-less) spiking, and has been shown to effectively reproduce various spiking statistics of neurons in vivo. However, the problem of estimating the model from extracellular spike train data has not been examined in depth. We formulate the problem in terms of max- imum likelihood estimation, and show that the computational problem of maximizing the likelihood is tractable.

We discuss the integration of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for maximum likelihood learning of Bayesian networks with belief propagation algorithms for approximate inference. Specifically we propose to combine the outer-loop step of convergent belief propagation algorithms with the M-step of the EM algorithm. This then yields an approximate EM algorithm that is essentially still double loop, with the important advantage of an inner loop that is guaranteed to converge. Simulations illustrate the merits of such an approach.

We present a novel method for approximate inference in Bayesian mod- els and regularized risk functionals. It is based on the propagation of mean and variance derived from the Laplace approximation of condi- tional probabilities in factorizing distributions, much akin to Minka's Expectation Propagation. In the jointly normal case, it coincides with the latter and belief propagation, whereas in the general case, it provides an optimization strategy containing Support Vector chunking, the Bayes Committee Machine, and Gaussian Process chunking as special cases.

Recently, relevance vector machines (RVM) have been fashioned from a sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) framework to perform supervised learn- ing using a weight prior that encourages sparsity of representation. The methodology incorporates an additional set of hyperparameters govern- ing the prior, one for each weight, and then adopts a specific approxi- mation to the full marginalization over all weights and hyperparameters. Despite its empirical success however, no rigorous motivation for this particular approximation is currently available. To address this issue, we demonstrate that SBL can be recast as the application of a rigorous vari- ational approximation to the full model by expressing the prior in a dual form. This formulation obviates the necessity of assuming any hyperpri- ors and leads to natural, intuitive explanations of why sparsity is achieved in practice.

We consider the situation in semi-supervised learning, where the "label sampling" mechanism stochastically depends on the true response (as well as potentially on the features). We suggest a method of moments for estimating this stochastic dependence using the unlabeled data. This is potentially useful for two distinct purposes: a. As an input to a super- vised learning procedure which can be used to "de-bias" its results using labeled data only and b. We present several examples to illustrate the practical usefulness of our method.

We use to denote the entire set of model parameters {a,b}a,b {S}. An instantiation of our probabilistic model is illustrated in Figure 1(b).

We propose a new interpretation of spiking neurons as Bayesian integra- tors accumulating evidence over time about events in the external world or the body, and communicating to other neurons their certainties about these events. In this model, spikes signal the occurrence of new infor- mation, i.e. what cannot be predicted from the past activity. As a result, firing statistics are close to Poisson, albeit providing a deterministic rep- resentation of probabilities. We proceed to develop a theory of Bayesian inference in spiking neural networks, recurrent interactions implement- ing a variant of belief propagation. Many perceptual and motor tasks performed by the central nervous system are probabilis- tic, and can be described in a Bayesian framework [4, 3].