In this paper we present the probabilistic typed natural deduction calculus TPTND, designed to reason about and derive trustworthiness properties of probabilistic computational processes, like those underlying current AI applications. Derivability in TPTND is interpreted as the process of extracting $n$ samples of possibly complex outputs with a certain frequency from a given categorical distribution. We formalize trust for such outputs as a form of hypothesis testing on the distance between such frequency and the intended probability. The main advantage of the calculus is to render such notion of trustworthiness checkable. We present a computational semantics for the terms over which we reason and then the semantics of TPTND, where logical operators as well as a Trust operator are defined through introduction and elimination rules. We illustrate structural and metatheoretical properties, with particular focus on the ability to establish under which term evolutions and logical rules applications the notion of trustworhtiness can be preserved.

Most machine learning methods assume that the input data distribution is the same in the training and testing phases. However, in practice, this stationarity is usually not met and the distribution of inputs differs, leading to unexpected performance of the learned model in deployment. The issue in which the training and test data inputs follow different probability distributions while the input-output relationship remains unchanged is referred to as covariate shift. In this paper, the performance of conventional machine learning models was experimentally evaluated in the presence of covariate shift. Furthermore, a region-based evaluation was performed by decomposing the domain of probability density function of the input data to assess the classifier's performance per domain region. Distributional changes were simulated in a two-dimensional classification problem. Subsequently, a higher four-dimensional experiments were conducted. Based on the experimental analysis, the Random Forests algorithm is the most robust classifier in the two-dimensional case, showing the lowest degradation rate for accuracy and F1-score metrics, with a range between 0.1% and 2.08%. Moreover, the results reveal that in higher-dimensional experiments, the performance of the models is predominantly influenced by the complexity of the classification function, leading to degradation rates exceeding 25% in most cases. It is also concluded that the models exhibit high bias towards the region with high density in the input space domain of the training samples.

We introduce two synthetic likelihood methods for Simulation-Based Inference (SBI), to conduct either amortized or targeted inference from experimental observations when a high-fidelity simulator is available. Both methods learn a conditional energy-based model (EBM) of the likelihood using synthetic data generated by the simulator, conditioned on parameters drawn from a proposal distribution. The learned likelihood can then be combined with any prior to obtain a posterior estimate, from which samples can be drawn using MCMC. Our methods uniquely combine a flexible Energy-Based Model and the minimization of a KL loss: this is in contrast to other synthetic likelihood methods, which either rely on normalizing flows, or minimize score-based objectives; choices that come with known pitfalls. We demonstrate the properties of both methods on a range of synthetic datasets, and apply them to a neuroscience model of the pyloric network in the crab, where our method outperforms prior art for a fraction of the simulation budget.

Learning a privacy-preserving model from sensitive data which are distributed across multiple devices is an increasingly important problem. The problem is often formulated in the federated learning context, with the aim of learning a single global model while keeping the data distributed. Moreover, Bayesian learning is a popular approach for modelling, since it naturally supports reliable uncertainty estimates. However, Bayesian learning is generally intractable even with centralised non-private data and so approximation techniques such as variational inference are a necessity. Variational inference has recently been extended to the non-private federated learning setting via the partitioned variational inference algorithm. For privacy protection, the current gold standard is called differential privacy. Differential privacy guarantees privacy in a strong, mathematically clearly defined sense. In this paper, we present differentially private partitioned variational inference, the first general framework for learning a variational approximation to a Bayesian posterior distribution in the federated learning setting while minimising the number of communication rounds and providing differential privacy guarantees for data subjects. We propose three alternative implementations in the general framework, one based on perturbing local optimisation runs done by individual parties, and two based on perturbing updates to the global model (one using a version of federated averaging, the second one adding virtual parties to the protocol), and compare their properties both theoretically and empirically.

Deep-unfolding neural networks (NNs) have received great attention since they achieve satisfactory performance with relatively low complexity. Typically, these deep-unfolding NNs are restricted to a fixed-depth for all inputs. However, the optimal number of layers required for convergence changes with different inputs. In this paper, we first develop a framework of deep deterministic policy gradient (DDPG)-driven deep-unfolding with adaptive depth for different inputs, where the trainable parameters of deep-unfolding NN are learned by DDPG, rather than updated by the stochastic gradient descent algorithm directly. Specifically, the optimization variables, trainable parameters, and architecture of deep-unfolding NN are designed as the state, action, and state transition of DDPG, respectively. Then, this framework is employed to deal with the channel estimation problem in massive multiple-input multiple-output systems. Specifically, first of all we formulate the channel estimation problem with an off-grid basis and develop a sparse Bayesian learning (SBL)-based algorithm to solve it. Secondly, the SBL-based algorithm is unfolded into a layer-wise structure with a set of introduced trainable parameters. Thirdly, the proposed DDPG-driven deep-unfolding framework is employed to solve this channel estimation problem based on the unfolded structure of the SBL-based algorithm. To realize adaptive depth, we design the halting score to indicate when to stop, which is a function of the channel reconstruction error. Furthermore, the proposed framework is extended to realize the adaptive depth of the general deep neural networks (DNNs). Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the conventional optimization algorithms and DNNs with fixed depth with much reduced number of layers.

Performing inference in Bayesian models requires sampling algorithms to draw samples from the posterior. This becomes prohibitively expensive as the size of data sets increase. Constructing approximations to the posterior which are cheap to evaluate is a popular approach to circumvent this issue. This begs the question of what is an appropriate space to perform approximation of Bayesian posterior measures. This manuscript studies the application of Bayes Hilbert spaces to the posterior approximation problem. Bayes Hilbert spaces are studied in functional data analysis in the context where observed functions are probability density functions and their application to computational Bayesian problems is in its infancy. This manuscript shall outline Bayes Hilbert spaces and their connection to Bayesian computation, in particular novel connections between Bayes Hilbert spaces, Bayesian coreset algorithms and kernel-based distances.

Causal reasoning and game-theoretic reasoning are fundamental topics in artificial intelligence, among many other disciplines: this paper is concerned with their intersection. Despite their importance, a formal framework that supports both these forms of reasoning has, until now, been lacking. We offer a solution in the form of (structural) causal games, which can be seen as extending Pearl's causal hierarchy to the game-theoretic domain, or as extending Koller and Milch's multi-agent influence diagrams to the causal domain. We then consider three key questions: i) How can the (causal) dependencies in games - either between variables, or between strategies - be modelled in a uniform, principled manner? ii) How may causal queries be computed in causal games, and what assumptions does this require? iii) How do causal games compare to existing formalisms? To address question i), we introduce mechanised games, which encode dependencies between agents' decision rules and the distributions governing the game. In response to question ii), we present definitions of predictions, interventions, and counterfactuals, and discuss the assumptions required for each. Regarding question iii), we describe correspondences between causal games and other formalisms, and explain how causal games can be used to answer queries that other causal or game-theoretic models do not support. Finally, we highlight possible applications of causal games, aided by an extensive open-source Python library.

The power and flexibility of Optimal Transport (OT) have pervaded a wide spectrum of problems, including recent Machine Learning challenges such as unsupervised domain adaptation. Its essence of quantitatively relating two probability distributions by some optimal metric, has been creatively exploited and shown to hold promise for many real-world data challenges. In a related theme in the present work, we posit that domain adaptation robustness is rooted in the intrinsic (latent) representations of the respective data, which are inherently lying in a non-linear submanifold embedded in a higher dimensional Euclidean space. We account for the geometric properties by refining the $l^2$ Euclidean metric to better reflect the geodesic distance between two distinct representations. We integrate a metric correction term as well as a prior cluster structure in the source data of the OT-driven adaptation. We show that this is tantamount to an implicit Bayesian framework, which we demonstrate to be viable for a more robust and better-performing approach to domain adaptation. Substantiating experiments are also included for validation purposes.

Argumentation problems are concerned with determining the acceptability of a set of arguments from their relational structure. When the available information is uncertain, probabilistic argumentation frameworks provide modelling tools to account for it. The first contribution of this paper is a novel interpretation of probabilistic argumentation frameworks as probabilistic logic programs. Probabilistic logic programs are logic programs in which some of the facts are annotated with probabilities. We show that the programs representing probabilistic argumentation frameworks do not satisfy a common assumption in probabilistic logic programming (PLP) semantics, which is, that probabilistic facts fully capture the uncertainty in the domain under investigation. The second contribution of this paper is then a novel PLP semantics for programs where a choice of probabilistic facts does not uniquely determine the truth assignment of the logical atoms. The third contribution of this paper is the implementation of a PLP system supporting this semantics: smProbLog. smProbLog is a novel PLP framework based on the probabilistic logic programming language ProbLog. smProbLog supports many inference and learning tasks typical of PLP, which, together with our first contribution, provide novel reasoning tools for probabilistic argumentation. We evaluate our approach with experiments analyzing the computational cost of the proposed algorithms and their application to a dataset of argumentation problems.

Machine learning algorithms have achieved superhuman performance in specific complex domains. Yet learning online from few examples and efficiently generalizing across domains remains elusive. In humans such learning proceeds via declarative memory formation and is closely associated with consciousness. Predictive processing has been advanced as a principled Bayesian inference framework for understanding the cortex as implementing deep generative perceptual models for both sensory data and action control. However, predictive processing offers little direct insight into fast compositional learning or the mystery of consciousness. Here we propose that through implementing online learning by hierarchical binding of unpredicted inferences, a predictive processing system may flexibly generalize in novel situations by forming working memories for perceptions and actions from single examples, which can become short- and long-term declarative memories retrievable by associative recall. We argue that the contents of such working memories are unified yet differentiated, can be maintained by selective attention and are consistent with observations of masking, postdictive perceptual integration, and other paradigm cases of consciousness research. We describe how the brain could have evolved to use perceptual value prediction for reinforcement learning of complex action policies simultaneously implementing multiple survival and reproduction strategies. 'Conscious experience' is how such a learning system perceptually represents its own functioning, suggesting an answer to the meta problem of consciousness. Our proposal naturally unifies feature binding, recurrent processing, and predictive processing with global workspace, and, to a lesser extent, the higher order theories of consciousness.