Humans use semantic concepts such as spatial relations between objects to describe scenes and communicate tasks such as "Put the tea to the right of the cup" or "Move the plate between the fork and the spoon." Just as children, assistive robots must be able to learn the sub-symbolic meaning of such concepts from human demonstrations and instructions. We address the problem of incrementally learning geometric models of spatial relations from few demonstrations collected online during interaction with a human. Such models enable a robot to manipulate objects in order to fulfill desired spatial relations specified by verbal instructions. At the start, we assume the robot has no geometric model of spatial relations. Given a task as above, the robot requests the user to demonstrate the task once in order to create a model from a single demonstration, leveraging cylindrical probability distribution as generative representation of spatial relations. We show how this model can be updated incrementally with each new demonstration without access to past examples in a sample-efficient way using incremental maximum likelihood estimation, and demonstrate the approach on a real humanoid robot.

Data from populations of systems are prevalent in many industrial applications. Machines and infrastructure are increasingly instrumented with sensing systems, emitting streams of telemetry data with complex interdependencies. In practice, data-centric monitoring procedures tend to consider these assets (and respective models) as distinct -- operating in isolation and associated with independent data. In contrast, this work captures the statistical correlations and interdependencies between models of a group of systems. Utilising a Bayesian multilevel approach, the value of data can be extended, since the population can be considered as a whole, rather than constituent parts. Most interestingly, domain expertise and knowledge of the underlying physics can be encoded in the model at the system, subgroup, or population level. We present an example of acoustic emission (time-of-arrival) mapping for source location, to illustrate how multilevel models naturally lend themselves to representing aggregate systems in engineering. In particular, we focus on constraining the combined models with domain knowledge to enhance transfer learning and enable further insights at the population level.

Data-driven approaches achieve remarkable results for the modeling of complex dynamics based on collected data. However, these models often neglect basic physical principles which determine the behavior of any real-world system. This omission is unfavorable in two ways: The models are not as data-efficient as they could be by incorporating physical prior knowledge, and the model itself might not be physically correct. We propose Gaussian Process Port-Hamiltonian systems (GP-PHS) as a physics-informed Bayesian learning approach with uncertainty quantification. The Bayesian nature of GP-PHS uses collected data to form a distribution over all possible Hamiltonians instead of a single point estimate. Due to the underlying physics model, a GP-PHS generates passive systems with respect to designated inputs and outputs. Further, the proposed approach preserves the compositional nature of Port-Hamiltonian systems.

Switching physical systems are ubiquitous in modern control applications, for instance, locomotion behavior of robots and animals, power converters with switches and diodes. The dynamics and switching conditions are often hard to obtain or even inaccessible in case of a-priori unknown environments and nonlinear components. Black-box neural networks can learn to approximately represent switching dynamics, but typically require a large amount of data, neglect the underlying axioms of physics, and lack of uncertainty quantification. We propose a Gaussian process based learning approach enhanced by switching Port-Hamiltonian systems (GP-SPHS) to learn physical plausible system dynamics and identify the switching condition. The Bayesian nature of Gaussian processes uses collected data to form a distribution over all possible switching policies and dynamics that allows for uncertainty quantification. Furthermore, the proposed approach preserves the compositional nature of Port-Hamiltonian systems. A simulation with a hopping robot validates the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Combining Gaussian processes with the expressive power of deep neural networks is commonly done nowadays through deep kernel learning (DKL). Unfortunately, due to the kernel optimization process, this often results in losing their Bayesian benefits. In this study, we present a novel approach for learning deep kernels by utilizing infinite-width neural networks. We propose to use the Neural Network Gaussian Process (NNGP) model as a guide to the DKL model in the optimization process. Our approach harnesses the reliable uncertainty estimation of the NNGPs to adapt the DKL target confidence when it encounters novel data points. As a result, we get the best of both worlds, we leverage the Bayesian behavior of the NNGP, namely its robustness to overfitting, and accurate uncertainty estimation, while maintaining the generalization abilities, scalability, and flexibility of deep kernels. Empirically, we show on multiple benchmark datasets of varying sizes and dimensionality, that our method is robust to overfitting, has good predictive performance, and provides reliable uncertainty estimations.

Characterizing how neural network depth, width, and dataset size jointly impact model quality is a central problem in deep learning theory. We give here a complete solution in the special case of linear networks with output dimension one trained using zero noise Bayesian inference with Gaussian weight priors and mean squared error as a negative log-likelihood. For any training dataset, network depth, and hidden layer widths, we find non-asymptotic expressions for the predictive posterior and Bayesian model evidence in terms of Meijer-G functions, a class of meromorphic special functions of a single complex variable. Through novel asymptotic expansions of these Meijer-G functions, a rich new picture of the joint role of depth, width, and dataset size emerges. We show that linear networks make provably optimal predictions at infinite depth: the posterior of infinitely deep linear networks with data-agnostic priors is the same as that of shallow networks with evidence-maximizing data-dependent priors. This yields a principled reason to prefer deeper networks when priors are forced to be data-agnostic. Moreover, we show that with data-agnostic priors, Bayesian model evidence in wide linear networks is maximized at infinite depth, elucidating the salutary role of increased depth for model selection. Underpinning our results is a novel emergent notion of effective depth, given by the number of hidden layers times the number of data points divided by the network width; this determines the structure of the posterior in the large-data limit.

We study parameterized MDPs (PMDPs) in which the key parameters of interest are unknown and must be learned using Bayesian inference. One key defining feature of such models is the presence of "uninformative" actions that provide no information about the unknown parameters. We contribute a set of assumptions for PMDPs under which Thompson sampling guarantees an asymptotically optimal expected regret bound of $O(T^{-1})$, which are easily verified for many classes of problems such as queuing, inventory control, and dynamic pricing.

Deep learning models, including modern systems like large language models, are well known to offer unreliable estimates of the uncertainty of their decisions. In order to improve the quality of the confidence levels, also known as calibration, of a model, common approaches entail the addition of either data-dependent or data-independent regularization terms to the training loss. Data-dependent regularizers have been recently introduced in the context of conventional frequentist learning to penalize deviations between confidence and accuracy. In contrast, data-independent regularizers are at the core of Bayesian learning, enforcing adherence of the variational distribution in the model parameter space to a prior density. The former approach is unable to quantify epistemic uncertainty, while the latter is severely affected by model misspecification. In light of the limitations of both methods, this paper proposes an integrated framework, referred to as calibration-aware Bayesian neural networks (CA-BNNs), that applies both regularizers while optimizing over a variational distribution as in Bayesian learning. Numerical results validate the advantages of the proposed approach in terms of expected calibration error (ECE) and reliability diagrams.

A population-level analysis is proposed to address data sparsity when building predictive models for engineering infrastructure. Utilising an interpretable hierarchical Bayesian approach and operational fleet data, domain expertise is naturally encoded (and appropriately shared) between different sub-groups, representing (i) use-type, (ii) component, or (iii) operating condition. Specifically, domain expertise is exploited to constrain the model via assumptions (and prior distributions) allowing the methodology to automatically share information between similar assets, improving the survival analysis of a truck fleet and power prediction in a wind farm. In each asset management example, a set of correlated functions is learnt over the fleet, in a combined inference, to learn a population model. Parameter estimation is improved when sub-fleets share correlated information at different levels of the hierarchy. In turn, groups with incomplete data automatically borrow statistical strength from those that are data-rich. The statistical correlations enable knowledge transfer via Bayesian transfer learning, and the correlations can be inspected to inform which assets share information for which effect (i.e. parameter). Both case studies demonstrate the wide applicability to practical infrastructure monitoring, since the approach is naturally adapted between interpretable fleet models of different in situ examples.

This paper proposes an online, provably robust, and scalable Bayesian approach for changepoint detection. The resulting algorithm has key advantages over previous work: it provides provable robustness by leveraging the generalised Bayesian perspective, and also addresses the scalability issues of previous attempts. Specifically, the proposed generalised Bayesian formalism leads to conjugate posteriors whose parameters are available in closed form by leveraging diffusion score matching. The resulting algorithm is exact, can be updated through simple algebra, and is more than 10 times faster than its closest competitor.