Bayesian inference is often utilized for uncertainty quantification tasks. A recent analysis by Xu and Raginsky 2022 rigorously decomposed the predictive uncertainty in Bayesian inference into two uncertainties, called aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, which represent the inherent randomness in the data-generating process and the variability due to insufficient data, respectively. They analyzed those uncertainties in an information-theoretic way, assuming that the model is well-specified and treating the model's parameters as latent variables. However, the existing information-theoretic analysis of uncertainty cannot explain the widely believed property of uncertainty, known as the sensitivity between the test and training data. It implies that when test data are similar to training data in some sense, the epistemic uncertainty should become small. In this work, we study such uncertainty sensitivity using our novel decomposition method for the predictive uncertainty. Our analysis successfully defines such sensitivity using information-theoretic quantities. Furthermore, we extend the existing analysis of Bayesian meta-learning and show the novel sensitivities among tasks for the first time.

Forgetting refers to the loss or deterioration of previously acquired information or knowledge. While the existing surveys on forgetting have primarily focused on continual learning, forgetting is a prevalent phenomenon observed in various other research domains within deep learning. Forgetting manifests in research fields such as generative models due to generator shifts, and federated learning due to heterogeneous data distributions across clients. Addressing forgetting encompasses several challenges, including balancing the retention of old task knowledge with fast learning of new tasks, managing task interference with conflicting goals, and preventing privacy leakage, etc. Moreover, most existing surveys on continual learning implicitly assume that forgetting is always harmful. In contrast, our survey argues that forgetting is a double-edged sword and can be beneficial and desirable in certain cases, such as privacy-preserving scenarios. By exploring forgetting in a broader context, we aim to present a more nuanced understanding of this phenomenon and highlight its potential advantages. Through this comprehensive survey, we aspire to uncover potential solutions by drawing upon ideas and approaches from various fields that have dealt with forgetting. By examining forgetting beyond its conventional boundaries, in future work, we hope to encourage the development of novel strategies for mitigating, harnessing, or even embracing forgetting in real applications. A comprehensive list of papers about forgetting in various research fields is available at \url{https://github.com/EnnengYang/Awesome-Forgetting-in-Deep-Learning}.

Robot learning is often difficult due to the expense of gathering data. The need for large amounts of data can, and should, be tackled with effective algorithms and leveraging expert information on robot dynamics. Bayesian reinforcement learning (BRL), thanks to its sample efficiency and ability to exploit prior knowledge, is uniquely positioned as such a solution method. Unfortunately, the application of BRL has been limited due to the difficulties of representing expert knowledge as well as solving the subsequent inference problem. This paper advances BRL for robotics by proposing a specialized framework for physical systems. In particular, we capture this knowledge in a factored representation, then demonstrate the posterior factorizes in a similar shape, and ultimately formalize the model in a Bayesian framework. We then introduce a sample-based online solution method, based on Monte-Carlo tree search and particle filtering, specialized to solve the resulting model. This approach can, for example, utilize typical low-level robot simulators and handle uncertainty over unknown dynamics of the environment. We empirically demonstrate its efficiency by performing on-robot learning in two human-robot interaction tasks with uncertainty about human behavior, achieving near-optimal performance after only a handful of real-world episodes. A video of learned policies is at https://youtu.be/H9xp60ngOes.

Large-dimensional empirical data in science and engineering frequently has low-rank structure and can be represented as a combination of just a few eigenmodes. Because of this structure, we can use just a few spatially localized sensor measurements to reconstruct the full state of a complex system. The quality of this reconstruction, especially in the presence of sensor noise, depends significantly on the spatial configuration of the sensors. Multiple algorithms based on gappy interpolation and QR factorization have been proposed to optimize sensor placement. Here, instead of an algorithm that outputs a singular "optimal" sensor configuration, we take a thermodynamic view to compute the full landscape of sensor interactions induced by the training data. The landscape takes the form of the Ising model in statistical physics, and accounts for both the data variance captured at each sensor location and the crosstalk between sensors. Mapping out these data-induced sensor interactions allows combining them with external selection criteria and anticipating sensor replacement impacts.

Intrusion detection systems (IDSs) are essential elements of IT systems. Their key component is a classification module that continuously evaluates some features of the network traffic and identifies possible threats. Its efficiency is greatly affected by the right selection of the features to be monitored. Therefore, the identification of a minimal set of features that are necessary to safely distinguish malicious traffic from benign traffic is indispensable in the course of the development of an IDS. This paper presents the preprocessing and feature selection workflow as well as its results in the case of the CSE-CIC-IDS2018 on AWS dataset, focusing on five attack types. To identify the relevant features, six feature selection methods were applied, and the final ranking of the features was elaborated based on their average score. Next, several subsets of the features were formed based on different ranking threshold values, and each subset was tried with five classification algorithms to determine the optimal feature set for each attack type. During the evaluation, four widely used metrics were taken into consideration.

The number of modes in a probability density function is representative of the model's complexity and can also be viewed as the number of existing subpopulations. Despite its relevance, little research has been devoted to its estimation. Focusing on the univariate setting, we propose a novel approach targeting prediction accuracy inspired by some overlooked aspects of the problem. We argue for the need for structure in the solutions, the subjective and uncertain nature of modes, and the convenience of a holistic view blending global and local density properties. Our method builds upon a combination of flexible kernel estimators and parsimonious compositional splines. Feature exploration, model selection and mode testing are implemented in the Bayesian inference paradigm, providing soft solutions and allowing to incorporate expert judgement in the process. The usefulness of our proposal is illustrated through a case study in sports analytics, showcasing multiple companion visualisation tools. A thorough simulation study demonstrates that traditional modality-driven approaches paradoxically struggle to provide accurate results. In this context, our method emerges as a top-tier alternative offering innovative solutions for analysts.

In high dimensional variable selection problems, statisticians often seek to design multiple testing procedures that control the False Discovery Rate (FDR), while concurrently identifying a greater number of relevant variables. Model-X methods, such as Knockoffs and conditional randomization tests, achieve the primary goal of finite-sample FDR control, assuming a known distribution of covariates. However, whether these methods can also achieve the secondary goal of maximizing discoveries remains uncertain. In fact, designing procedures to discover more relevant variables with finite-sample FDR control is a largely open question, even within the arguably simplest linear models. In this paper, we develop near-optimal multiple testing procedures for high dimensional Bayesian linear models with isotropic covariates. We introduce Model-X procedures that provably control the frequentist FDR from finite samples, even when the model is misspecified, and conjecturally achieve near-optimal power when the data follow the Bayesian linear model. Our proposed procedure, PoEdCe, incorporates three key ingredients: Posterior Expectation, distilled Conditional randomization test (dCRT), and the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure with e-values (eBH). The optimality conjecture of PoEdCe is based on a heuristic calculation of its asymptotic true positive proportion (TPP) and false discovery proportion (FDP), which is supported by methods from statistical physics as well as extensive numerical simulations. Our result establishes the Bayesian linear model as a benchmark for comparing the power of various multiple testing procedures.

Differential privacy is the state-of-the-art definition for privacy, guaranteeing that any analysis performed on a sensitive dataset leaks no information about the individuals whose data are contained therein. In this thesis, we develop differentially private algorithms to analyze distributed and streaming data. In the distributed model, we consider the particular problem of learning -- in a distributed fashion -- a global model of the data, that can subsequently be used for arbitrary analyses. We build upon PrivBayes, a differentially private method that approximates the high-dimensional distribution of a centralized dataset as a product of low-order distributions, utilizing a Bayesian Network model. We examine three novel approaches to learning a global Bayesian Network from distributed data, while offering the differential privacy guarantee to all local datasets. Our work includes a detailed theoretical analysis of the distributed, differentially private entropy estimator which we use in one of our algorithms, as well as a detailed experimental evaluation, using both synthetic and real-world data. In the streaming model, we focus on the problem of estimating the density of a stream of users, which expresses the fraction of all users that actually appear in the stream. We offer one of the strongest privacy guarantees for the streaming model, user-level pan-privacy, which ensures that the privacy of any user is protected, even against an adversary that observes the internal state of the algorithm. We provide a detailed analysis of an existing, sampling-based algorithm for the problem and propose two novel modifications that significantly improve it, both theoretically and experimentally, by optimally using all the allocated "privacy budget."

Our work bridges ABC with deep neural implicit samplers based on generative adversarial networks (GANs) and adversarial variational Bayes. Both ABC and GANs compare aspects of observed and fake data to simulate from posteriors and likelihoods, respectively. We develop a Bayesian GAN (B-GAN) sampler that directly targets the posterior by solving an adversarial optimization problem. B-GAN is driven by a deterministic mapping learned on the ABC reference by conditional GANs. Once the mapping has been trained, iid posterior samples are obtained by filtering noise at a negligible additional cost. We propose two post-processing local refinements using (1) data-driven proposals with importance reweighting, and (2) variational Bayes. We support our findings with frequentist-Bayesian results, showing that the typical total variation distance between the true and approximate posteriors converges to zero for certain neural network generators and discriminators. Our findings on simulated data show highly competitive performance relative to some of the most recent likelihood-free posterior simulators.

This paper presents a substantial extension of our work published at ICLR. Our ICLR work advocated for enhancing transferability in adversarial examples by incorporating a Bayesian formulation into model parameters, which effectively emulates the ensemble of infinitely many deep neural networks, while, in this paper, we introduce a novel extension by incorporating the Bayesian formulation into the model input as well, enabling the joint diversification of both the model input and model parameters. Our empirical findings demonstrate that: 1) the combination of Bayesian formulations for both the model input and model parameters yields significant improvements in transferability; 2) by introducing advanced approximations of the posterior distribution over the model input, adversarial transferability achieves further enhancement, surpassing all state-of-the-arts when attacking without model fine-tuning. Moreover, we propose a principled approach to fine-tune model parameters in such an extended Bayesian formulation. The derived optimization objective inherently encourages flat minima in the parameter space and input space. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves a new state-of-the-art on transfer-based attacks, improving the average success rate on ImageNet and CIFAR-10 by 19.14% and 2.08%, respectively, when comparing with our ICLR basic Bayesian method. We will make our code publicly available.