These approximate inference strategies can scale well in many cases, but they Distributions on integers are ubiquitous in probabilistic struggle to find valid sampling regions in the presence of modeling but remain challenging for many low-probability observations and non-differentiability (e.g., of today's probabilistic programming languages observing the sum of two large random integers to be a (PPLs). The core challenge comes from discrete constant) [Gelman et al., 2015, Bingham et al., 2019, Dillon structure: many of today's PPL inference strategies et al., 2017]. Exact inference strategies work by preserving rely on enumeration, sampling, or differentiation the global structure of the distribution, but here there is a in order to scale, which fail for high-dimensional challenge: what is the right strategy for efficiently representing complex discrete distributions involving integers.

We study the problem of inferring sparse time-varying Markov random fields (MRFs) with different discrete and temporal regularizations on the parameters. Due to the intractability of discrete regularization, most approaches for solving this problem rely on the so-called maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) with relaxed regularization, which neither results in ideal statistical properties nor scale to the dimensions encountered in realistic settings. In this paper, we address these challenges by departing from the MLE paradigm and resorting to a new class of constrained optimization problems with exact, discrete regularization to promote sparsity in the estimated parameters. Despite the nonconvex and discrete nature of our formulation, we show that it can be solved efficiently and parametrically for all sparsity levels. More specifically, we show that the entire solution path of the time-varying MRF for all sparsity levels can be obtained in $\mathcal{O}(pT^3)$, where $T$ is the number of time steps and $p$ is the number of unknown parameters at any given time. The efficient and parametric characterization of the solution path renders our approach highly suitable for cross-validation, where parameter estimation is required for varying regularization values. Despite its simplicity and efficiency, we show that our proposed approach achieves provably small estimation error for different classes of time-varying MRFs, namely Gaussian and discrete MRFs, with as few as one sample per time. Utilizing our algorithm, we can recover the complete solution path for instances of time-varying MRFs featuring over 30 million variables in less than 12 minutes on a standard laptop computer. Our code is available at \url{https://sites.google.com/usc.edu/gomez/data}.

Despite their importance for assessing reliability of predictions, uncertainty quantification (UQ) measures for machine learning models have only recently begun to be rigorously characterized. One prominent issue is the curse of dimensionality: it is commonly believed that the marginal likelihood should be reminiscent of cross-validation metrics and that both should deteriorate with larger input dimensions. We prove that by tuning hyperparameters to maximize marginal likelihood (the empirical Bayes procedure), the performance, as measured by the marginal likelihood, improves monotonically} with the input dimension. On the other hand, we prove that cross-validation metrics exhibit qualitatively different behavior that is characteristic of double descent. Cold posteriors, which have recently attracted interest due to their improved performance in certain settings, appear to exacerbate these phenomena. We verify empirically that our results hold for real data, beyond our considered assumptions, and we explore consequences involving synthetic covariates.

The availability of both structured and unstructured databases, such as electronic health data, social media data, patent data, and surveys that are often updated in real time, among others, has grown rapidly over the past decade. With this expansion, the statistical and methodological questions around data integration, or rather merging multiple data sources, has also grown. Specifically, the science of the "data cleaning pipeline" contains four stages that allow an analyst to perform downstream tasks, predictive analyses, or statistical analyses on "cleaned data." This article provides a review of this emerging field, introducing technical terminology and commonly used methods. Statement of Significance: The article reviews the data cleaning pipeline, introducing technical terminology and commonly used methods.

We consider the problem of selecting a small subset of representative variables from a large dataset. In the computer science literature, this dimensionality reduction problem is typically formalized as Column Subset Selection (CSS). Meanwhile, the typical statistical formalization is to find an information-maximizing set of Principal Variables. This paper shows that these two approaches are equivalent, and moreover, both can be viewed as maximum likelihood estimation within a certain semi-parametric model. Using these connections, we show how to efficiently (1) perform CSS using only summary statistics from the original dataset; (2) perform CSS in the presence of missing and/or censored data; and (3) select the subset size for CSS in a hypothesis testing framework.

We introduce a multifidelity estimator of covariance matrices formulated as the solution to a regression problem on the manifold of symmetric positive definite matrices. The estimator is positive definite by construction, and the Mahalanobis distance minimized to obtain it possesses properties which enable practical computation. We show that our manifold regression multifidelity (MRMF) covariance estimator is a maximum likelihood estimator under a certain error model on manifold tangent space. More broadly, we show that our Riemannian regression framework encompasses existing multifidelity covariance estimators constructed from control variates. We demonstrate via numerical examples that our estimator can provide significant decreases, up to one order of magnitude, in squared estimation error relative to both single-fidelity and other multifidelity covariance estimators. Furthermore, preservation of positive definiteness ensures that our estimator is compatible with downstream tasks, such as data assimilation and metric learning, in which this property is essential.

In this work, minibatch MCMC sampling for feedforward neural networks is made more feasible. To this end, it is proposed to sample subgroups of parameters via a blocked Gibbs sampling scheme. By partitioning the parameter space, sampling is possible irrespective of layer width. It is also possible to alleviate vanishing acceptance rates for increasing depth by reducing the proposal variance in deeper layers. Increasing the length of a non-convergent chain increases the predictive accuracy in classification tasks, so avoiding vanishing acceptance rates and consequently enabling longer chain runs have practical benefits. Moreover, non-convergent chain realizations aid in the quantification of predictive uncertainty. An open problem is how to perform minibatch MCMC sampling for feedforward neural networks in the presence of augmented data.

Motivated by the need for the development of safe and reliable methods for uncertainty quantification in machine learning, I propose and develop ideas for a model-free statistical framework for imprecise probabilistic prediction inference. This framework facilitates uncertainty quantification in the form of prediction sets that offer finite sample control of type 1 errors, a property shared with conformal prediction sets, but this new approach also offers more versatile tools for imprecise probabilistic reasoning. Furthermore, I propose and consider the theoretical and empirical properties of a precise probabilistic approximation to the model-free imprecise framework. Approximating a belief/plausibility measure pair by an [optimal in some sense] probability measure in the credal set is a critical resolution needed for the broader adoption of imprecise probabilistic approaches to inference in statistical and machine learning communities. It is largely undetermined in the statistical and machine learning literatures, more generally, how to properly quantify uncertainty in that there is no generally accepted standard of accountability of stated uncertainties. The research I present in this manuscript is aimed at motivating a framework for statistical inference with reliability and accountability as the guiding principles.

Bayesian inference is often utilized for uncertainty quantification tasks. A recent analysis by Xu and Raginsky 2022 rigorously decomposed the predictive uncertainty in Bayesian inference into two uncertainties, called aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, which represent the inherent randomness in the data-generating process and the variability due to insufficient data, respectively. They analyzed those uncertainties in an information-theoretic way, assuming that the model is well-specified and treating the model's parameters as latent variables. However, the existing information-theoretic analysis of uncertainty cannot explain the widely believed property of uncertainty, known as the sensitivity between the test and training data. It implies that when test data are similar to training data in some sense, the epistemic uncertainty should become small. In this work, we study such uncertainty sensitivity using our novel decomposition method for the predictive uncertainty. Our analysis successfully defines such sensitivity using information-theoretic quantities. Furthermore, we extend the existing analysis of Bayesian meta-learning and show the novel sensitivities among tasks for the first time.

Forgetting refers to the loss or deterioration of previously acquired information or knowledge. While the existing surveys on forgetting have primarily focused on continual learning, forgetting is a prevalent phenomenon observed in various other research domains within deep learning. Forgetting manifests in research fields such as generative models due to generator shifts, and federated learning due to heterogeneous data distributions across clients. Addressing forgetting encompasses several challenges, including balancing the retention of old task knowledge with fast learning of new tasks, managing task interference with conflicting goals, and preventing privacy leakage, etc. Moreover, most existing surveys on continual learning implicitly assume that forgetting is always harmful. In contrast, our survey argues that forgetting is a double-edged sword and can be beneficial and desirable in certain cases, such as privacy-preserving scenarios. By exploring forgetting in a broader context, we aim to present a more nuanced understanding of this phenomenon and highlight its potential advantages. Through this comprehensive survey, we aspire to uncover potential solutions by drawing upon ideas and approaches from various fields that have dealt with forgetting. By examining forgetting beyond its conventional boundaries, in future work, we hope to encourage the development of novel strategies for mitigating, harnessing, or even embracing forgetting in real applications. A comprehensive list of papers about forgetting in various research fields is available at \url{https://github.com/EnnengYang/Awesome-Forgetting-in-Deep-Learning}.