This paper surveys the recent advances in machine learning method for economic forecasting. The survey covers the following topics: nowcasting, textual data, panel and tensor data, high-dimensional Granger causality tests, time series cross-validation, classification with economic losses.

Interacting systems of events may exhibit cascading behavior where events tend to be temporally clustered. While the cascades themselves may be obvious from the data, it is important to understand which states of the system trigger them. For this purpose, we propose a modeling framework based on continuous-time Bayesian networks (CTBNs) to analyze cascading behavior in complex systems. This framework allows us to describe how events propagate through the system and to identify likely sentry states, that is, system states that may lead to imminent cascading behavior. Moreover, CTBNs have a simple graphical representation and provide interpretable outputs, both of which are important when communicating with domain experts. We also develop new methods for knowledge extraction from CTBNs and we apply the proposed methodology to a data set of alarms in a large industrial system.

The current definition of a Bayesian credible set cannot, in general, achieve an arbitrarily preassigned credible level. This drawback is particularly acute for classification problems, where there are only a finite number of achievable credible levels. As a result, there is as of today no general way to construct an exact credible set for classification. In this paper, we introduce a generalized credible set that can achieve any preassigned credible level. The key insight is a simple connection between the Bayesian highest posterior density credible set and the Neyman--Pearson lemma, which, as far as we know, hasn't been noticed before. Using this connection, we introduce a randomized decision rule to fill the gaps among the discrete credible levels. Accompanying this methodology, we also develop the Steering Wheel Plot to represent the credible set, which is useful in visualizing the uncertainty in classification. By developing the exact credible set for discrete parameters, we make the theory of Bayesian inference more complete.

In this paper, we present a methodology that uses an optical tactile sensor for efficient tactile exploration of embedded objects within soft materials. The methodology consists of an exploration phase, where a probabilistic estimate of the location of the embedded objects is built using a Bayesian approach. The exploration phase is then followed by a mapping phase which exploits the probabilistic map to reconstruct the underlying topography of the workspace by sampling in more detail regions where there is expected to be embedded objects. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the method, we tested our approach on an experimental setup that consists of a series of quartz beads located underneath a polyethylene foam that prevents direct observation of the configuration and requires the use of tactile exploration to recover the location of the beads. We show the performance of our methodology using ten different configurations of the beads where the proposed approach is able to approximate the underlying configuration. We benchmark our results against a random sampling policy.

The growing sophistication of Business Email Compromise (BEC) and spear phishing attacks poses significant challenges to organizations worldwide. The techniques featured in traditional spam and phishing detection are insufficient due to the tailored nature of modern BEC attacks as they often blend in with the regular benign traffic. Recent advances in machine learning, particularly in Natural Language Understanding (NLU), offer a promising avenue for combating such attacks but in a practical system, due to limitations such as data availability, operational costs, verdict explainability requirements or a need to robustly evolve the system, it is essential to combine multiple approaches together. We present CAPE, a comprehensive and efficient system for BEC detection that has been proven in a production environment for a period of over two years. Rather than being a single model, CAPE is a system that combines independent ML models and algorithms detecting BEC-related behaviors across various email modalities such as text, images, metadata and the email's communication context. This decomposition makes CAPE's verdicts naturally explainable. In the paper, we describe the design principles and constraints behind its architecture, as well as the challenges of model design, evaluation and adapting the system continuously through a Bayesian approach that combines limited data with domain knowledge. Furthermore, we elaborate on several specific behavioral detectors, such as those based on Transformer neural architectures.

It is desirable to have accurate uncertainty estimation from a single deterministic forward-pass model, as traditional methods for uncertainty quantification are computationally expensive. However, this is difficult because single forward-pass models do not sample weights during inference and often make assumptions about the target distribution, such as assuming it is Gaussian. This can be restrictive in regression tasks, where the mean and standard deviation are inadequate to model the target distribution accurately. This paper proposes a deep Bayesian quantile regression model that can estimate the quantiles of a continuous target distribution without the Gaussian assumption. The proposed method is based on evidential learning, which allows the model to capture aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty with a single deterministic forward-pass model. This makes the method efficient and scalable to large models and datasets. We demonstrate that the proposed method achieves calibrated uncertainties on non-Gaussian distributions, disentanglement of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, and robustness to out-of-distribution samples.

Language change is a cultural evolutionary process in which variants of linguistic variables change in frequency through processes analogous to mutation, selection and genetic drift. In this work, we apply a recently-introduced method to corpus data to quantify the strength of selection in specific instances of historical language change. We first demonstrate, in the context of English irregular verbs, that this method is more reliable and interpretable than similar methods that have previously been applied. We further extend this study to demonstrate that a bias towards phonological simplicity overrides that favouring grammatical simplicity when these are in conflict. Finally, with reference to Spanish spelling reforms, we show that the method can also detect points in time at which selection strengths change, a feature that is generically expected for socially-motivated language change. Together, these results indicate how hypotheses for mechanisms of language change can be tested quantitatively using historical corpus data.

Quantum State Tomography (QST) is a fundamental technique in Quantum Information Processing (QIP) for reconstructing unknown quantum states. However, the conventional QST methods are limited by the number of measurements required, which makes them impractical for large-scale quantum systems. To overcome this challenge, we propose the integration of Quantum Machine Learning (QML) techniques to enhance the efficiency of QST. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive investigation into various approaches for QST, encompassing both classical and quantum methodologies; We also implement different QML approaches for QST and demonstrate their effectiveness on various simulated and experimental quantum systems, including multi-qubit networks. Our results show that our QML-based QST approach can achieve high fidelity (98%) with significantly fewer measurements than conventional methods, making it a promising tool for practical QIP applications.

Discriminative learning effectively predicts true object class for image classification. However, it often results in false positives for outliers, posing critical concerns in applications like autonomous driving and video surveillance systems. Previous attempts to address this challenge involved training image classifiers through contrastive learning using actual outlier data or synthesizing outliers for self-supervised learning. Furthermore, unsupervised generative modeling of inliers in pixel space has shown limited success for outlier detection. In this work, we introduce a quantile-based maximum likelihood objective for learning the inlier distribution to improve the outlier separation during inference. Our approach fits a normalizing flow to pre-trained discriminative features and detects the outliers according to the evaluated log-likelihood. The experimental evaluation demonstrates the effectiveness of our method as it surpasses the performance of the state-of-the-art unsupervised methods for outlier detection. The results are also competitive compared with a recent self-supervised approach for outlier detection. Our work allows to reduce dependency on well-sampled negative training data, which is especially important for domains like medical diagnostics or remote sensing.

Complex decision-making systems rarely have direct access to the current state of the world and they instead rely on opinions to form an understanding of what the ground truth could be. Even in problems where experts provide opinions without any intention to manipulate the decision maker, it is challenging to decide which expert's opinion is more reliable -- a challenge that is further amplified when decision-maker has limited, delayed, or no access to the ground truth after the fact. This paper explores a statistical approach to infer the competence of each expert based on their opinions without any need for the ground truth. Echoing the logic behind what is commonly referred to as \textit{the wisdom of crowds}, we propose measuring the competence of each expert by their likeliness to agree with their peers. We further show that the more reliable an expert is the more likely it is that they agree with their peers. We leverage this fact to propose a completely unsupervised version of the na\"{i}ve Bayes classifier and show that the proposed technique is asymptotically optimal for a large class of problems. In addition to aggregating a large block of opinions, we further apply our technique for online opinion aggregation and for decision-making based on a limited the number of opinions.