Variational inference is an approximation framework for Bayesian inference that seeks to improve quantified uncertainty in predictions by optimizing a simplified distribution over parameters to stand in for the full posterior. Capturing model variations that remain consistent with training data enables more robust predictions by reducing parameter sensitivity. This work introduces a fixed-point optimization for variational inference that is applicable when every feasible log density can be expressed as a linear combination of functions from a given basis. In such cases, the optimizer becomes a fixed-point of projective integral updates. When the basis spans univariate quadratics in each parameter, feasible densities are Gaussian and the projective integral updates yield quasi-Newton variational Bayes (QNVB). Other bases and updates are also possible. As these updates require high-dimensional integration, this work first proposes an efficient quasirandom quadrature sequence for mean-field distributions. Each iterate of the sequence contains two evaluation points that combine to correctly integrate all univariate quadratics and, if the mean-field factors are symmetric, all univariate cubics. More importantly, averaging results over short subsequences achieves periodic exactness on a much larger space of multivariate quadratics. The corresponding variational updates require 4 loss evaluations with standard (not second-order) backpropagation to eliminate error terms from over half of all multivariate quadratic basis functions. This integration technique is motivated by first proposing stochastic blocked mean-field quadratures, which may be useful in other contexts. A PyTorch implementation of QNVB allows for better control over model uncertainty during training than competing methods. Experiments demonstrate superior generalizability for multiple learning problems and architectures.

One of the core problems of modern Bayesian inference is to compute the posterior distribution, a joint probability measure over unknown quantities, such as model parameters and unobserved latent variables, obtained by combining data information with prior knowledge in a principled manner. Modern statistics often rely on complex models for which the posterior distribution is analytically intractable and requires approximate computation. As a common alternative strategy to conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling approach for approximating the posterior, variational inference (VI, [10]), or variational Bayes [27], finds the closest member in a user specified class of analytically tractable distributions, referred to as the variational (distribution) family, to approximate the target posterior. Although MCMC is asymptotically exact, VI is usually orders of magnitude faster [12, 62] since it turns the sampling or integration into an optimization problem. VI has successfully demonstrated its power in a wide variety of applications, including clustering [11, 23], semi-supervised learning [38], neural-network training [5, 52], and probabilistic modeling [13, 36]. Among various approximating schemes, the mean-field (MF) approximation, which originates from statistical mechanics and uses the approximating family consisting of all fully factorized density functions over (blocks of) the unknown quantities, is the most widely used and representative instance of VI that is conceptually simple yet practically powerful. On the downside, VI still requires certain conditional conjugacy structure to facilitate efficient computation (c.f.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have gained an increasing amount of popularity due to their superior capability in learning node embeddings for various graph inference tasks, but training them can raise privacy concerns. To address this, we propose using link local differential privacy over decentralized nodes, enabling collaboration with an untrusted server to train GNNs without revealing the existence of any link. Our approach spends the privacy budget separately on links and degrees of the graph for the server to better denoise the graph topology using Bayesian estimation, alleviating the negative impact of LDP on the accuracy of the trained GNNs. We bound the mean absolute error of the inferred link probabilities against the ground truth graph topology. We then propose two variants of our LDP mechanism complementing each other in different privacy settings, one of which estimates fewer links under lower privacy budgets to avoid false positive link estimates when the uncertainty is high, while the other utilizes more information and performs better given relatively higher privacy budgets. Furthermore, we propose a hybrid variant that combines both strategies and is able to perform better across different privacy budgets. Extensive experiments show that our approach outperforms existing methods in terms of accuracy under varying privacy budgets.

Employing a forward diffusion chain to gradually map the data to a noise distribution, diffusion-based generative models learn how to generate the data by inferring a reverse diffusion chain. However, this approach is slow and costly because it needs many forward and reverse steps. We propose a faster and cheaper approach that adds noise not until the data become pure random noise, but until they reach a hidden noisy-data distribution that we can confidently learn. Then, we use fewer reverse steps to generate data by starting from this hidden distribution that is made similar to the noisy data. We reveal that the proposed model can be cast as an adversarial auto-encoder empowered by both the diffusion process and a learnable implicit prior. Experimental results show even with a significantly smaller number of reverse diffusion steps, the proposed truncated diffusion probabilistic models can provide consistent improvements over the non-truncated ones in terms of performance in both unconditional and text-guided image generations. Generating photo-realistic images with probabilistic models is a challenging and important task in machine learning and computer vision, with many potential applications in data augmentation, image editing, style transfer, etc. This new modeling class, which includes both score-based and diffusion-based generative models, uses noise injection to gradually corrupt the data distribution into a simple noise distribution that can be easily sampled from, and then uses a denoising network to reverse the noise injection to generate photo-realistic images. From the perspective of score matching (Hyvärinen & Dayan, 2005; Vincent, 2011) and Langevin dynamics (Neal, 2011; Welling & Teh, 2011), the denoising network is trained by matching the score function, which is the gradient of the log-density of the data, of the corrupted data distribution and that of the generator distribution at different noise levels (Song & Ermon, 2019). This training objective can also be formulated under diffusion-based generative models (Sohl-Dickstein et al., 2015; Ho et al., 2020). These two types of models have been further unified by Song et al. (2021b) under the framework of discretized stochastic differential equations.

For many decades, experimental solid mechanics has played a crucial role in characterizing and understanding the mechanical properties of natural and novel materials. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) provide new opportunities for the field, including experimental design, data analysis, uncertainty quantification, and inverse problems. As the number of papers published in recent years in this emerging field is exploding, it is timely to conduct a comprehensive and up-to-date review of recent ML applications in experimental solid mechanics. Here, we first provide an overview of common ML algorithms and terminologies that are pertinent to this review, with emphasis placed on physics-informed and physics-based ML methods. Then, we provide thorough coverage of recent ML applications in traditional and emerging areas of experimental mechanics, including fracture mechanics, biomechanics, nano- and micro-mechanics, architected materials, and 2D material. Finally, we highlight some current challenges of applying ML to multi-modality and multi-fidelity experimental datasets and propose several future research directions. This review aims to provide valuable insights into the use of ML methods as well as a variety of examples for researchers in solid mechanics to integrate into their experiments.

Causal machine learning (ML) algorithms recover graphical structures that tell us something about cause-and-effect relationships. The causal representation praovided by these algorithms enables transparency and explainability, which is necessary for decision making in critical real-world problems. Yet, causal ML has had limited impact in practice compared to associational ML. This paper investigates the challenges of causal ML with application to COVID-19 UK pandemic data. We collate data from various public sources and investigate what the various structure learning algorithms learn from these data. We explore the impact of different data formats on algorithms spanning different classes of learning, and assess the results produced by each algorithm, and groups of algorithms, in terms of graphical structure, model dimensionality, sensitivity analysis, confounding variables, predictive and interventional inference. We use these results to highlight open problems in causal structure learning and directions for future research. To facilitate future work, we make all graphs, models, data sets, and source code publicly available online.

This paper introduces Bayesian frameworks for tackling various aspects of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems, leveraging a probabilistic interpretation of MCDM methods and challenges. By harnessing the flexibility of Bayesian models, the proposed frameworks offer statistically elegant solutions to key challenges in MCDM, such as group decision-making problems and criteria correlation. Additionally, these models can accommodate diverse forms of uncertainty in decision makers' (DMs) preferences, including normal and triangular distributions, as well as interval preferences. To address large-scale group MCDM scenarios, a probabilistic mixture model is developed, enabling the identification of homogeneous subgroups of DMs. Furthermore, a probabilistic ranking scheme is devised to assess the relative importance of criteria and alternatives based on DM(s) preferences. Through experimentation on various numerical examples, the proposed frameworks are validated, demonstrating their effectiveness and highlighting their distinguishing features in comparison to alternative methods.

Bayesian inference for neural networks, or Bayesian deep learning, has the potential to provide well-calibrated predictions with quantified uncertainty and robustness. However, the main hurdle for Bayesian deep learning is its computational complexity due to the high dimensionality of the parameter space. In this work, we propose a novel scheme that addresses this limitation by constructing a low-dimensional subspace of the neural network parameters-referred to as an active subspace-by identifying the parameter directions that have the most significant influence on the output of the neural network. We demonstrate that the significantly reduced active subspace enables effective and scalable Bayesian inference via either Monte Carlo (MC) sampling methods, otherwise computationally intractable, or variational inference. Empirically, our approach provides reliable predictions with robust uncertainty estimates for various regression tasks.

Meta-learning is a framework in which machine learning models train over a set of datasets in order to produce predictions on new datasets at test time. Probabilistic meta-learning has received an abundance of attention from the research community in recent years, but a problem shared by many existing probabilistic meta-models is that they require a very large number of datasets in order to produce high-quality predictions with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. In many applications, however, such quantities of data are simply not available. In this dissertation we present a significantly more data-efficient approach to probabilistic meta-learning through per-datapoint amortisation of inference in Bayesian neural networks, introducing the Amortised Pseudo-Observation Variational Inference Bayesian Neural Network (APOVI-BNN). First, we show that the approximate posteriors obtained under our amortised scheme are of similar or better quality to those obtained through traditional variational inference, despite the fact that the amortised inference is performed in a single forward pass. We then discuss how the APOVI-BNN may be viewed as a new member of the neural process family, motivating the use of neural process training objectives for potentially better predictive performance on complex problems as a result. Finally, we assess the predictive performance of the APOVI-BNN against other probabilistic meta-models in both a one-dimensional regression problem and in a significantly more complex image completion setting. In both cases, when the amount of training data is limited, our model is the best in its class.

Score-based approaches in the structure learning task are thriving because of their scalability. Continuous relaxation has been the key reason for this advancement. Despite achieving promising outcomes, most of these methods are still struggling to ensure that the graphs generated from the latent space are acyclic by minimizing a defined score. There has also been another trend of permutation-based approaches, which concern the search for the topological ordering of the variables in the directed acyclic graph in order to limit the search space of the graph. In this study, we propose an alternative approach for strictly constraining the acyclicty of the graphs with an integration of the knowledge from the topological orderings. Our approach can reduce inference complexity while ensuring the structures of the generated graphs to be acyclic. Our empirical experiments with simulated and real-world data show that our approach can outperform related Bayesian score-based approaches.