Meta-learning has demonstrated promising results in few-shot classification (FSC) by learning to solve new problems using prior knowledge. Bayesian methods are effective at characterizing uncertainty in FSC, which is crucial in high-risk fields. In this context, the logistic-softmax likelihood is often employed as an alternative to the softmax likelihood in multi-class Gaussian process classification due to its conditional conjugacy property. However, the theoretical property of logistic-softmax is not clear and previous research indicated that the inherent uncertainty of logistic-softmax leads to suboptimal performance. To mitigate these issues, we revisit and redesign the logistic-softmax likelihood, which enables control of the \textit{a priori} confidence level through a temperature parameter. Furthermore, we theoretically and empirically show that softmax can be viewed as a special case of logistic-softmax and logistic-softmax induces a larger family of data distribution than softmax. Utilizing modified logistic-softmax, we integrate the data augmentation technique into the deep kernel based Gaussian process meta-learning framework, and derive an analytical mean-field approximation for task-specific updates. Our approach yields well-calibrated uncertainty estimates and achieves comparable or superior results on standard benchmark datasets. Code is publicly available at \url{https://github.com/keanson/revisit-logistic-softmax}.

Mutual information quantifies the dependence between two random variables and remains invariant under diffeomorphisms. In this paper, we explore the pointwise mutual information profile, an extension of mutual information that maintains this invariance. We analytically describe the profiles of multivariate normal distributions and introduce the family of fine distributions, for which the profile can be accurately approximated using Monte Carlo methods. We then show how fine distributions can be used to study the limitations of existing mutual information estimators, investigate the behavior of neural critics used in variational estimators, and understand the effect of experimental outliers on mutual information estimation. Finally, we show how fine distributions can be used to obtain model-based Bayesian estimates of mutual information, suitable for problems with available domain expertise in which uncertainty quantification is necessary.

The elusive nature of gradient-based optimization in neural networks is tied to their loss landscape geometry, which is poorly understood. However recent work has brought solid evidence that there is essentially no loss barrier between the local solutions of gradient descent, once accounting for weight-permutations that leave the network's computation unchanged. This raises questions for approximate inference in Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), where we are interested in marginalizing over multiple points in the loss landscape. In this work, we first extend the formalism of marginalized loss barrier and solution interpolation to BNNs, before proposing a matching algorithm to search for linearly connected solutions. This is achieved by aligning the distributions of two independent approximate Bayesian solutions with respect to permutation matrices. We build on the results of Ainsworth et al. (2023), reframing the problem as a combinatorial optimization one, using an approximation to the sum of bilinear assignment problem. We then experiment on a variety of architectures and datasets, finding nearly zero marginalized loss barriers for linearly connected solutions.

The core principle of Variational Inference (VI) is to convert the statistical inference problem of computing complex posterior probability densities into a tractable optimization problem. This property enables VI to be faster than several sampling-based techniques. However, the traditional VI algorithm is not scalable to large data sets and is unable to readily infer out-of-bounds data points without re-running the optimization process. Recent developments in the field, like stochastic-, black box-, and amortized-VI, have helped address these issues. Generative modeling tasks nowadays widely make use of amortized VI for its efficiency and scalability, as it utilizes a parameterized function to learn the approximate posterior density parameters. In this paper, we review the mathematical foundations of various VI techniques to form the basis for understanding amortized VI. Additionally, we provide an overview of the recent trends that address several issues of amortized VI, such as the amortization gap, generalization issues, inconsistent representation learning, and posterior collapse. Finally, we analyze alternate divergence measures that improve VI optimization.

The worst-case resource usage of a program can provide useful information for many software-engineering tasks, such as performance optimization and algorithmic-complexity-vulnerability discovery. This paper presents a generic, adaptive, and sound fuzzing framework, called DSE-SMC, for estimating worst-case resource usage. DSE-SMC is generic because it is black-box as long as the user provides an interface for retrieving resource-usage information on a given input; adaptive because it automatically balances between exploration and exploitation of candidate inputs; and sound because it is guaranteed to converge to the true resource-usage distribution of the analyzed program. DSE-SMC is built upon a key observation: resource accumulation in a program is isomorphic to the soft-conditioning mechanism in Bayesian probabilistic programming; thus, worst-case resource analysis is isomorphic to the maximum-a-posteriori-estimation problem of Bayesian statistics. DSE-SMC incorporates sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) -- a generic framework for Bayesian inference -- with adaptive evolutionary fuzzing algorithms, in a sound manner, i.e., DSE-SMC asymptotically converges to the posterior distribution induced by resource-usage behavior of the analyzed program. Experimental evaluation on Java applications demonstrates that DSE-SMC is significantly more effective than existing black-box fuzzing methods for worst-case analysis.

We introduce a univariate signal deconvolution method based on the principles of an approach to Artificial General Intelligence in order to build a general-purpose model of models independent of any arbitrarily assumed prior probability distribution. We investigate how non-random data may encode information about the physical properties, such as dimensions and length scales of the space in which a signal or message may have been originally encoded, embedded, or generated. Our multidimensional space reconstruction method is based on information theory and algorithmic probability, so that it is proven to be agnostic vis-a-vis the arbitrarily chosen encoding-decoding scheme, computable or semi-computable method of approximation to algorithmic complexity, and computational model. The results presented in this paper are useful for applications in coding theory, particularly in zero-knowledge one-way communication channels, such as in deciphering messages from unknown generating sources about which no prior knowledge is available and to which no return message can be sent. We argue that this method has the potential to be of great value in cryptography, signal processing, causal deconvolution, life and technosignature detection.

Federated Learning (FL) is currently one of the most popular technologies in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) due to its collaborative learning and ability to preserve client privacy. However, it faces challenges such as non-identically and non-independently distributed (non-IID) and data with imbalanced labels among local clients. To address these limitations, the research community has explored various approaches such as using local model parameters, federated generative adversarial learning, and federated representation learning. In our study, we propose a novel Clustered FedStack framework based on the previously published Stacked Federated Learning (FedStack) framework. The local clients send their model predictions and output layer weights to a server, which then builds a robust global model. This global model clusters the local clients based on their output layer weights using a clustering mechanism. We adopt three clustering mechanisms, namely K-Means, Agglomerative, and Gaussian Mixture Models, into the framework and evaluate their performance. We use Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) with the maximum likelihood function to determine the number of clusters. The Clustered FedStack models outperform baseline models with clustering mechanisms. To estimate the convergence of our proposed framework, we use Cyclical learning rates.

Recent studies on Graph Neural Networks(GNNs) provide both empirical and theoretical evidence supporting their effectiveness in capturing structural patterns on both homophilic and certain heterophilic graphs. Notably, most real-world homophilic and heterophilic graphs are comprised of a mixture of nodes in both homophilic and heterophilic structural patterns, exhibiting a structural disparity. However, the analysis of GNN performance with respect to nodes exhibiting different structural patterns, e.g., homophilic nodes in heterophilic graphs, remains rather limited. In the present study, we provide evidence that Graph Neural Networks(GNNs) on node classification typically perform admirably on homophilic nodes within homophilic graphs and heterophilic nodes within heterophilic graphs while struggling on the opposite node set, exhibiting a performance disparity. We theoretically and empirically identify effects of GNNs on testing nodes exhibiting distinct structural patterns. We then propose a rigorous, non-i.i.d PAC-Bayesian generalization bound for GNNs, revealing reasons for the performance disparity, namely the aggregated feature distance and homophily ratio difference between training and testing nodes. Furthermore, we demonstrate the practical implications of our new findings via (1) elucidating the effectiveness of deeper GNNs; and (2) revealing an over-looked distribution shift factor on graph out-of-distribution problem and proposing a new scenario accordingly.

Designing flexible probabilistic models over tree topologies is important for developing efficient phylogenetic inference methods. To do that, previous works often leverage the similarity of tree topologies via hand-engineered heuristic features which would require pre-sampled tree topologies and may suffer from limited approximation capability. In this paper, we propose a deep autoregressive model for phylogenetic inference based on graph neural networks (GNNs), called ARTree. By decomposing a tree topology into a sequence of leaf node addition operations and modeling the involved conditional distributions based on learnable topological features via GNNs, ARTree can provide a rich family of distributions over the entire tree topology space that have simple sampling algorithms and density estimation procedures, without using heuristic features. We demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our method on a benchmark of challenging real data tree topology density estimation and variational Bayesian phylogenetic inference problems.

Assessing causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding is a challenging problem. Existing studies leveraged proxy variables or multiple treatments to adjust for the confounding bias. In particular, the latter approach attributes the impact on a single outcome to multiple treatments, allowing estimating latent variables for confounding control. Nevertheless, these methods primarily focus on a single outcome, whereas in many real-world scenarios, there is greater interest in studying the effects on multiple outcomes. Besides, these outcomes are often coupled with multiple treatments. Examples include the intensive care unit (ICU), where health providers evaluate the effectiveness of therapies on multiple health indicators. To accommodate these scenarios, we consider a new setting dubbed as multiple treatments and multiple outcomes. We then show that parallel studies of multiple outcomes involved in this setting can assist each other in causal identification, in the sense that we can exploit other treatments and outcomes as proxies for each treatment effect under study. We proceed with a causal discovery method that can effectively identify such proxies for causal estimation. The utility of our method is demonstrated in synthetic data and sepsis disease.