Diffusion models have impressive image generation capability, but low-quality generations still exist, and their identification remains challenging due to the lack of a proper sample-wise metric. To address this, we propose BayesDiff, a pixel-wise uncertainty estimator for generations from diffusion models based on Bayesian inference. In particular, we derive a novel uncertainty iteration principle to characterize the uncertainty dynamics in diffusion, and leverage the last-layer Laplace approximation for efficient Bayesian inference. The estimated pixel-wise uncertainty can not only be aggregated into a sample-wise metric to filter out low-fidelity images but also aids in augmenting successful generations and rectifying artifacts in failed generations in text-to-image tasks. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of BayesDiff and its promise for practical applications.

End-to-end spoken language understanding (SLU) remains elusive even with current large pretrained language models on text and speech, especially in multilingual cases. Machine translation has been established as a powerful pretraining objective on text as it enables the model to capture high-level semantics of the input utterance and associations between different languages, which is desired for speech models that work on lower-level acoustic frames. Motivated particularly by the task of cross-lingual SLU, we demonstrate that the task of speech translation (ST) is a good means of pretraining speech models for end-to-end SLU on both intra- and cross-lingual scenarios. By introducing ST, our models reach higher performance over baselines on monolingual and multilingual intent classification as well as spoken question answering using SLURP, MINDS-14, and NMSQA benchmarks. To verify the effectiveness of our methods, we also create new benchmark datasets from both synthetic and real sources, for speech summarization and low-resource/zero-shot transfer from English to French or Spanish. We further show the value of preserving knowledge for the ST pretraining task for better downstream performance, possibly using Bayesian transfer regularizers.

In this paper, we study the problem of efficient online reinforcement learning in the infinite horizon setting when there is an offline dataset to start with. We assume that the offline dataset is generated by an expert but with unknown level of competence, i.e., it is not perfect and not necessarily using the optimal policy. We show that if the learning agent models the behavioral policy (parameterized by a competence parameter) used by the expert, it can do substantially better in terms of minimizing cumulative regret, than if it doesn't do that. We establish an upper bound on regret of the exact informed PSRL algorithm that scales as $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$. This requires a novel prior-dependent regret analysis of Bayesian online learning algorithms for the infinite horizon setting. We then propose an approximate Informed RLSVI algorithm that we can interpret as performing imitation learning with the offline dataset, and then performing online learning.

We introduce a novel strategy to train randomised predictors in federated learning, where each node of the network aims at preserving its privacy by releasing a local predictor but keeping secret its training dataset with respect to the other nodes. We then build a global randomised predictor which inherits the properties of the local private predictors in the sense of a PAC-Bayesian generalisation bound. We consider the synchronous case where all nodes share the same training objective (derived from a generalisation bound), and the asynchronous case where each node may have its own personalised training objective. We show through a series of numerical experiments that our approach achieves a comparable predictive performance to that of the batch approach where all datasets are shared across nodes. Moreover the predictors are supported by numerically nonvacuous generalisation bounds while preserving privacy for each node. We explicitly compute the increment on predictive performance and generalisation bounds between batch and federated settings, highlighting the price to pay to preserve privacy.

Quantifying the uncertainty of quantities of interest (QoIs) from physical systems is a primary objective in model validation. However, achieving this goal entails balancing the need for computational efficiency with the requirement for numerical accuracy. To address this trade-off, we propose a novel bi-fidelity formulation of variational auto-encoders (BF-VAE) designed to estimate the uncertainty associated with a QoI from low-fidelity (LF) and high-fidelity (HF) samples of the QoI. This model allows for the approximation of the statistics of the HF QoI by leveraging information derived from its LF counterpart. Specifically, we design a bi-fidelity auto-regressive model in the latent space that is integrated within the VAE's probabilistic encoder-decoder structure. An effective algorithm is proposed to maximize the variational lower bound of the HF log-likelihood in the presence of limited HF data, resulting in the synthesis of HF realizations with a reduced computational cost. Additionally, we introduce the concept of the bi-fidelity information bottleneck (BF-IB) to provide an information-theoretic interpretation of the proposed BF-VAE model. Our numerical results demonstrate that BF-VAE leads to considerably improved accuracy, as compared to a VAE trained using only HF data, when limited HF data is available.

The stochastic block model (SBM) is a widely used framework for community detection in networks, where the network structure is typically represented by an adjacency matrix. However, conventional SBMs are not directly applicable to an adjacency matrix that consists of non-negative zero-inflated continuous edge weights. To model the international trading network, where edge weights represent trading values between countries, we propose an innovative SBM based on a restricted Tweedie distribution. Additionally, we incorporate nodal information, such as the geographical distance between countries, and account for its dynamic effect on edge weights. Notably, we show that given a sufficiently large number of nodes, estimating this covariate effect becomes independent of community labels of each node when computing the maximum likelihood estimator of parameters in our model. This result enables the development of an efficient two-step algorithm that separates the estimation of covariate effects from other parameters. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method through extensive simulation studies and an application to real-world international trading data.

The majority of data assimilation (DA) methods in the geosciences are based on Gaussian assumptions. While these assumptions facilitate efficient algorithms, they cause analysis biases and subsequent forecast degradations. Non-parametric, particle-based DA algorithms have superior accuracy, but their application to high-dimensional models still poses operational challenges. Drawing inspiration from recent advances in the field of generative artificial intelligence (AI), this article introduces a new nonlinear estimation theory which attempts to bridge the existing gap in DA methodology. Specifically, a Conjugate Transform Filter (CTF) is derived and shown to generalize the celebrated Kalman filter to arbitrarily non-Gaussian distributions. The new filter has several desirable properties, such as its ability to preserve statistical relationships in the prior state and convergence to highly accurate observations. An ensemble approximation of the new theory (ECTF) is also presented and validated using idealized statistical experiments that feature bounded quantities with non-Gaussian distributions, a prevalent challenge in Earth system models. Results from these experiments indicate that the greatest benefits from ECTF occur when observation errors are small relative to the forecast uncertainty and when state variables exhibit strong nonlinear dependencies. Ultimately, the new filtering theory offers exciting avenues for improving conventional DA algorithms through their principled integration with AI techniques.

In this work, we consider a classification problem in unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA). UDA aims to transfer knowledge from a source domain with ample labeled data to enhance the performance in a target domain where labeled data is unavailable. In UDA, the source and target domains have different data generating distributions, so the core challenge is to transfer knowledge contained in the labeled dataset in the source domain to the target domain under the distribution shifts. Over the decades, significant improvements in the transferability from source to target domains have been made, resulting in areas like domain alignment (Ben-David et al., 2010; Ganin et al., 2016; Long et al., 2018; Zhang et al., 2019) and self-training (Cai et al., 2021; Chen et al., 2020; Liu et al., 2021). Improving calibration performance, which is about matching predictions regarding a random event to the long-term occurrence of the event (Dawid, 1982), is of central interest in the machine learning community due to its significance to safe and trustworthy deployment of machine learning models in critical real-world decision-making systems (Amodei et al., 2016; Lee and See, 2004). In independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) settings, calibration performance has been significantly improved by various approaches (Gal and Ghahramani, 2016; Guo et al., 2017; Lakshminarayanan et al., 2017). However, producing well-calibrated predictions in UDA remains challenging due to the distribution shifts. Specifically, Wang et al. (2020) show the discernible compromise in calibration performance as an offset against the enhancement of target accuracy. A further observation reveals that state-of-the-art calibrated classifiers in the i.i.d.

Meta-learning has demonstrated promising results in few-shot classification (FSC) by learning to solve new problems using prior knowledge. Bayesian methods are effective at characterizing uncertainty in FSC, which is crucial in high-risk fields. In this context, the logistic-softmax likelihood is often employed as an alternative to the softmax likelihood in multi-class Gaussian process classification due to its conditional conjugacy property. However, the theoretical property of logistic-softmax is not clear and previous research indicated that the inherent uncertainty of logistic-softmax leads to suboptimal performance. To mitigate these issues, we revisit and redesign the logistic-softmax likelihood, which enables control of the \textit{a priori} confidence level through a temperature parameter. Furthermore, we theoretically and empirically show that softmax can be viewed as a special case of logistic-softmax and logistic-softmax induces a larger family of data distribution than softmax. Utilizing modified logistic-softmax, we integrate the data augmentation technique into the deep kernel based Gaussian process meta-learning framework, and derive an analytical mean-field approximation for task-specific updates. Our approach yields well-calibrated uncertainty estimates and achieves comparable or superior results on standard benchmark datasets. Code is publicly available at \url{https://github.com/keanson/revisit-logistic-softmax}.

Mutual information quantifies the dependence between two random variables and remains invariant under diffeomorphisms. In this paper, we explore the pointwise mutual information profile, an extension of mutual information that maintains this invariance. We analytically describe the profiles of multivariate normal distributions and introduce the family of fine distributions, for which the profile can be accurately approximated using Monte Carlo methods. We then show how fine distributions can be used to study the limitations of existing mutual information estimators, investigate the behavior of neural critics used in variational estimators, and understand the effect of experimental outliers on mutual information estimation. Finally, we show how fine distributions can be used to obtain model-based Bayesian estimates of mutual information, suitable for problems with available domain expertise in which uncertainty quantification is necessary.