Generalized Labeled Multi-Bernoulli (GLMB) densities arise in a host of multi-object system applications analogous to Gaussians in single-object filtering. However, computing the GLMB filtering density requires solving NP-hard problems. To alleviate this computational bottleneck, we develop a linear complexity Gibbs sampling framework for GLMB density computation. Specifically, we propose a tempered Gibbs sampler that exploits the structure of the GLMB filtering density to achieve an $\mathcal{O}(T(P+M))$ complexity, where $T$ is the number of iterations of the algorithm, $P$ and $M$ are the number hypothesized objects and measurements. This innovation enables the GLMB filter implementation to be reduced from an $\mathcal{O}(TP^{2}M)$ complexity to $\mathcal{O}(T(P+M+\log T)+PM)$. Moreover, the proposed framework provides the flexibility for trade-offs between tracking performance and computational load. Convergence of the proposed Gibbs sampler is established, and numerical studies are presented to validate the proposed GLMB filter implementation.

We introduce a new empirical Bayes approach for large-scale multiple linear regression. Our approach combines two key ideas: (i) the use of flexible "adaptive shrinkage" priors, which approximate the nonparametric family of scale mixture of normal distributions by a finite mixture of normal distributions; and (ii) the use of variational approximations to efficiently estimate prior hyperparameters and compute approximate posteriors. Combining these two ideas results in fast and flexible methods, with computational speed comparable to fast penalized regression methods such as the Lasso, and with competitive prediction accuracy across a wide range of scenarios. Further, we provide new results that establish conceptual connections between our empirical Bayes methods and penalized methods. Specifically, we show that the posterior mean from our method solves a penalized regression problem, with the form of the penalty function being learned from the data by directly solving an optimization problem (rather than being tuned by cross-validation). Our methods are implemented in an R package, mr.ash.alpha,

We propose a nonparametric and time-varying directed information graph (TV-DIG) framework to estimate the evolving causal structure in time series networks, thereby addressing the limitations of traditional econometric models in capturing high-dimensional, nonlinear, and time-varying interconnections among series. This framework employs an information-theoretic measure rooted in a generalized version of Granger-causality, which is applicable to both linear and nonlinear dynamics. Our framework offers advancements in measuring systemic risk and establishes meaningful connections with established econometric models, including vector autoregression and switching models. We evaluate the efficacy of our proposed model through simulation experiments and empirical analysis, reporting promising results in recovering simulated time-varying networks with nonlinear and multivariate structures. We apply this framework to identify and monitor the evolution of interconnectedness and systemic risk among major assets and industrial sectors within the financial network. We focus on cryptocurrencies' potential systemic risks to financial stability, including spillover effects on other sectors during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Federal Reserve's 2020 emergency response. Our findings reveals significant, previously underrecognized pre-2020 influences of cryptocurrencies on certain financial sectors, highlighting their potential systemic risks and offering a systematic approach in tracking evolving cross-sector interactions within financial networks.

Multi-access Edge Computing (MEC) can be implemented together with Open Radio Access Network (O-RAN) over commodity platforms to offer low-cost deployment and bring the services closer to end-users. In this paper, a joint O-RAN/MEC orchestration using a Bayesian deep reinforcement learning (RL)-based framework is proposed that jointly controls the O-RAN functional splits, the allocated resources and hosting locations of the O-RAN/MEC services across geo-distributed platforms, and the routing for each O-RAN/MEC data flow. The goal is to minimize the long-term overall network operation cost and maximize the MEC performance criterion while adapting possibly time-varying O-RAN/MEC demands and resource availability. This orchestration problem is formulated as Markov decision process (MDP). However, the system consists of multiple BSs that share the same resources and serve heterogeneous demands, where their parameters have non-trivial relations. Consequently, finding the exact model of the underlying system is impractical, and the formulated MDP renders in a large state space with multi-dimensional discrete action. To address such modeling and dimensionality issues, a novel model-free RL agent is proposed for our solution framework. The agent is built from Double Deep Q-network (DDQN) that tackles the large state space and is then incorporated with action branching, an action decomposition method that effectively addresses the multi-dimensional discrete action with linear increase complexity. Further, an efficient exploration-exploitation strategy under a Bayesian framework using Thomson sampling is proposed to improve the learning performance and expedite its convergence. Trace-driven simulations are performed using an O-RAN-compliant model. The results show that our approach is data-efficient (i.e., converges faster) and increases the returned reward by 32\% than its non-Bayesian version.

The challenge of producing accurate statistics while respecting the privacy of the individuals in a sample is an important area of research. We study minimax lower bounds for classes of differentially private estimators. In particular, we show how to characterize the power of a statistical test under differential privacy in a plug-and-play fashion by solving an appropriate transport problem. With specific coupling constructions, this observation allows us to derive Le Cam-type and Fano-type inequalities not only for regular definitions of differential privacy but also for those based on Renyi divergence. We then proceed to illustrate our results on three simple, fully worked out examples. In particular, we show that the problem class has a huge importance on the provable degradation of utility due to privacy. In certain scenarios, we show that maintaining privacy results in a noticeable reduction in performance only when the level of privacy protection is very high. Conversely, for other problems, even a modest level of privacy protection can lead to a significant decrease in performance. Finally, we demonstrate that the DP-SGLD algorithm, a private convex solver, can be employed for maximum likelihood estimation with a high degree of confidence, as it provides near-optimal results with respect to both the size of the sample and the level of privacy protection. This algorithm is applicable to a broad range of parametric estimation procedures, including exponential families.

With the significant successes of large language models (LLMs) in many natural language processing tasks, there is growing interest among researchers in exploring LLMs for novel recommender systems. However, we have observed that directly using LLMs as a recommender system is usually unstable due to its inherent position bias. To this end, we introduce exploratory research and find consistent patterns of positional bias in LLMs that influence the performance of recommendation across a range of scenarios. Then, we propose a Bayesian probabilistic framework, STELLA (Stable LLM for Recommendation), which involves a two-stage pipeline. During the first probing stage, we identify patterns in a transition matrix using a probing detection dataset. And in the second recommendation stage, a Bayesian strategy is employed to adjust the biased output of LLMs with an entropy indicator. Therefore, our framework can capitalize on existing pattern information to calibrate instability of LLMs, and enhance recommendation performance. Finally, extensive experiments clearly validate the effectiveness of our framework.

Graph contrastive learning (GCL) aims to align the positive features while differentiating the negative features in the latent space by minimizing a pair-wise contrastive loss. As the embodiment of an outstanding discriminative unsupervised graph representation learning approach, GCL achieves impressive successes in various graph benchmarks. However, such an approach falls short of recognizing the topology isomorphism of graphs, resulting in that graphs with relatively homogeneous node features cannot be sufficiently discriminated. By revisiting classic graph topology recognition works, we disclose that the corresponding expertise intuitively complements GCL methods. To this end, we propose a novel hierarchical topology isomorphism expertise embedded graph contrastive learning, which introduces knowledge distillations to empower GCL models to learn the hierarchical topology isomorphism expertise, including the graph-tier and subgraph-tier. On top of this, the proposed method holds the feature of plug-and-play, and we empirically demonstrate that the proposed method is universal to multiple state-of-the-art GCL models. The solid theoretical analyses are further provided to prove that compared with conventional GCL methods, our method acquires the tighter upper bound of Bayes classification error. We conduct extensive experiments on real-world benchmarks to exhibit the performance superiority of our method over candidate GCL methods, e.g., for the real-world graph representation learning experiments, the proposed method beats the state-of-the-art method by 0.23% on unsupervised representation learning setting, 0.43% on transfer learning setting. Our code is available at https://github.com/jyf123/HTML.

This work studies the learning process over social networks under partial and random information sharing. In traditional social learning models, agents exchange full belief information with each other while trying to infer the true state of nature. We study the case where agents share information about only one hypothesis, namely, the trending topic, which can be randomly changing at every iteration. We show that agents can learn the true hypothesis even if they do not discuss it, at rates comparable to traditional social learning. We also show that using one's own belief as a prior for estimating the neighbors' non-transmitted beliefs might create opinion clusters that prevent learning with full confidence. This phenomenon occurs when a single hypothesis corresponding to the truth is exchanged exclusively during all times. Such a practice, however, avoids the complete rejection of the truth under any information exchange procedure -- something that could happen if priors were uniform.

We propose a physics-informed machine learning method for uncertainty quantification in high-dimensional inverse problems. In this method, the states and parameters of partial differential equations (PDEs) are approximated with truncated conditional Karhunen-Lo\`eve expansions (CKLEs), which, by construction, match the measurements of the respective variables. The maximum a posteriori (MAP) solution of the inverse problem is formulated as a minimization problem over CKLE coefficients where the loss function is the sum of the norm of PDE residuals and the $\ell_2$ regularization term. This MAP formulation is known as the physics-informed CKLE (PICKLE) method. Uncertainty in the inverse solution is quantified in terms of the posterior distribution of CKLE coefficients, and we sample the posterior by solving a randomized PICKLE minimization problem, formulated by adding zero-mean Gaussian perturbations in the PICKLE loss function. We call the proposed approach the randomized PICKLE (rPICKLE) method. For linear and low-dimensional nonlinear problems (15 CKLE parameters), we show analytically and through comparison with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) that the rPICKLE posterior converges to the true posterior given by the Bayes rule. For high-dimensional non-linear problems with 2000 CKLE parameters, we numerically demonstrate that rPICKLE posteriors are highly informative--they provide mean estimates with an accuracy comparable to the estimates given by the MAP solution and the confidence interval that mostly covers the reference solution. We are not able to obtain the HMC posterior to validate rPICKLE's convergence to the true posterior due to the HMC's prohibitive computational cost for the considered high-dimensional problems. Our results demonstrate the advantages of rPICKLE over HMC for approximately sampling high-dimensional posterior distributions subject to physics constraints.

This paper offers a fresh look at the pumping lemma constant as an upper bound for the finite structural information of a Context Free Grammar. An objective function based on indirect negative evidence considers the occurrences, and non-occurrences, of a finite number of trees, encountered after a sufficiently long non-adversial input presentation. This objective function has optimal substructure in the hypotheses space, giving rise to a greedy search learner. With this learner, a range of classes of Context Free Languages is shown to be learnable (identifiable in the limit) on an otherwise intractable hypotheses space.