In-Context Learning (ICL) empowers Large Language Models (LLMs) with the capacity to learn in context, achieving downstream generalization without gradient updates but with a few in-context examples. Despite the encouraging empirical success, the underlying mechanism of ICL remains unclear, and existing research offers various viewpoints of understanding. These studies propose intuition-driven and ad-hoc technical solutions for interpreting ICL, illustrating an ambiguous road map. In this paper, we leverage a data generation perspective to reinterpret recent efforts and demonstrate the potential broader usage of popular technical solutions, approaching a systematic angle. For a conceptual definition, we rigorously adopt the terms of skill learning and skill recognition. The difference between them is skill learning can learn new data generation functions from in-context data. We also provide a comprehensive study on the merits and weaknesses of different solutions, and highlight the uniformity among them given the perspective of data generation, establishing a technical foundation for future research to incorporate the strengths of different lines of research.

In longitudinal observational studies with a time-to-event outcome, a common objective in causal analysis is to estimate the causal survival curve under hypothetical intervention scenarios within the study cohort. The g-formula is a particularly useful tool for this analysis. To enhance the traditional parametric g-formula approach, we developed a more adaptable Bayesian g-formula estimator. This estimator facilitates both longitudinal predictive and causal inference. It incorporates Bayesian additive regression trees in the modeling of the time-evolving generative components, aiming to mitigate bias due to model misspecification. Specifically, we introduce a more general class of g-formulas for discrete survival data. These formulas can incorporate the longitudinal balancing scores, which serve as an effective method for dimension reduction and are vital when dealing with an expanding array of time-varying confounders. The minimum sufficient formulation of these longitudinal balancing scores is linked to the nature of treatment regimes, whether static or dynamic. For each type of treatment regime, we provide posterior sampling algorithms, which are grounded in the Bayesian additive regression trees framework. We have conducted simulation studies to illustrate the empirical performance of our proposed Bayesian g-formula estimators, and to compare them with existing parametric estimators. We further demonstrate the practical utility of our methods in real-world scenarios using data from the Yale New Haven Health System's electronic health records.

Recent diffusion models provide a promising zero-shot solution to noisy linear inverse problems without retraining for specific inverse problems. In this paper, we propose the first unified interpretation for existing zero-shot methods from the perspective of approximating the conditional posterior mean for the reverse diffusion process of conditional sampling. We reveal that recent methods are equivalent to making isotropic Gaussian approximations to intractable posterior distributions over clean images given diffused noisy images, with the only difference in the handcrafted design of isotropic posterior covariances. Inspired by this finding, we propose a general plug-and-play posterior covariance optimization based on maximum likelihood estimation to improve recent methods. To achieve optimal posterior covariance without retraining, we provide general solutions based on two approaches specifically designed to leverage pre-trained models with and without reverse covariances. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed methods significantly enhance the overall performance or robustness to hyperparameters of recent methods. Code is available at https://github.com/xypeng9903/k-diffusion-inverse-problems

This paper introduces Bayesian Flow Networks (BFNs), a new class of generative model in which the parameters of a set of independent distributions are modified with Bayesian inference in the light of noisy data samples, then passed as input to a neural network that outputs a second, interdependent distribution. Starting from a simple prior and iteratively updating the two distributions yields a generative procedure similar to the reverse process of diffusion models; however it is conceptually simpler in that no forward process is required. Discrete and continuous-time loss functions are derived for continuous, discretised and discrete data, along with sample generation procedures. Notably, the network inputs for discrete data lie on the probability simplex, and are therefore natively differentiable, paving the way for gradient-based sample guidance and few-step generation in discrete domains such as language modelling. The loss function directly optimises data compression and places no restrictions on the network architecture. In our experiments BFNs achieve competitive log-likelihoods for image modelling on dynamically binarized MNIST and CIFAR-10, and outperform all known discrete diffusion models on the text8 character-level language modelling task.

Pervasive across diverse domains, stochastic systems exhibit fluctuations in processes ranging from molecular dynamics to climate phenomena. The Langevin equation has served as a common mathematical model for studying such systems, enabling predictions of their temporal evolution and analyses of thermodynamic quantities, including absorbed heat, work done on the system, and entropy production. However, inferring the Langevin equation from observed trajectories remains challenging, particularly for nonlinear and high-dimensional systems. In this study, we present a comprehensive framework that employs Bayesian neural networks for inferring Langevin equations in both overdamped and underdamped regimes. Our framework first provides the drift force and diffusion matrix separately and then combines them to construct the Langevin equation. By providing a distribution of predictions instead of a single value, our approach allows us to assess prediction uncertainties, which can prevent potential misunderstandings and erroneous decisions about the system. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework in inferring Langevin equations for various scenarios including a neuron model and microscopic engine, highlighting its versatility and potential impact.

In advancing the understanding of decision-making processes, Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) have proven instrumental in reconstructing animal's multiple intentions amidst complex behaviors. Given the recent development of a continuous-time multi-intention IRL framework, there has been persistent inquiry into inferring discrete time-varying rewards with IRL. To tackle the challenge, we introduce Latent (Markov) Variable Inverse Q-learning (L(M)V-IQL), a novel class of IRL algorthms tailored for accommodating discrete intrinsic reward functions. Leveraging an Expectation-Maximization approach, we cluster observed expert trajectories into distinct intentions and independently solve the IRL problem for each. Demonstrating the efficacy of L(M)V-IQL through simulated experiments and its application to different real mouse behavior datasets, our approach surpasses current benchmarks in animal behavior prediction, producing interpretable reward functions. This advancement holds promise for neuroscience and cognitive science, contributing to a deeper understanding of decision-making and uncovering underlying brain mechanisms.

Ecological rationality refers to the notion that humans are rational agents adapted to their environment. However, testing this theory remains challenging due to two reasons: the difficulty in defining what tasks are ecologically valid and building rational models for these tasks. In this work, we demonstrate that large language models can generate cognitive tasks, specifically category learning tasks, that match the statistics of real-world tasks, thereby addressing the first challenge. We tackle the second challenge by deriving rational agents adapted to these tasks using the framework of meta-learning, leading to a class of models called ecologically rational meta-learned inference (ERMI). ERMI quantitatively explains human data better than seven other cognitive models in two different experiments. It additionally matches human behavior on a qualitative level: (1) it finds the same tasks difficult that humans find difficult, (2) it becomes more reliant on an exemplar-based strategy for assigning categories with learning, and (3) it generalizes to unseen stimuli in a human-like way. Furthermore, we show that ERMI's ecologically valid priors allow it to achieve state-of-the-art performance on the OpenML-CC18 classification benchmark.

The expected loss is an upper bound to the model generalization error which admits robust PAC-Bayes bounds for learning. However, loss minimization is known to ignore misspecification, where models cannot exactly reproduce observations. This leads to significant underestimates of parameter uncertainties in the large data, or underparameterized, limit. We analyze the generalization error of near-deterministic, misspecified and underparametrized surrogate models, a regime of broad relevance in science and engineering. We show posterior distributions must cover every training point to avoid a divergent generalization error and derive an ensemble {ansatz} that respects this constraint, which for linear models incurs minimal overhead. The efficient approach is demonstrated on model problems before application to high dimensional datasets in atomistic machine learning. Parameter uncertainties from misspecification survive in the underparametrized limit, giving accurate prediction and bounding of test errors.

Bayesian optimisation requires fitting a Gaussian process model, which in turn requires specifying hyperparameters - most of the theoretical literature assumes those hyperparameters are known. The commonly used maximum likelihood estimator for hyperparameters of the Gaussian process is consistent only if the data fills the space uniformly, which does not have to be the case in Bayesian optimisation. Since no guarantees exist regarding the correctness of hyperparameter estimation, and those hyperparameters can significantly affect the Gaussian process fit, theoretical analysis of Bayesian optimisation with unknown hyperparameters is very challenging. Previously proposed algorithms with the no-regret property were only able to handle the special case of unknown lengthscales, reproducing kernel Hilbert space norm and applied only to the frequentist case. We propose a novel algorithm, HE-GP-UCB, which is the first algorithm enjoying the no-regret property in the case of unknown hyperparameters of arbitrary form, and which supports both Bayesian and frequentist settings. Our proof idea is novel and can easily be extended to other variants of Bayesian optimisation. We show this by extending our algorithm to the adversarially robust optimisation setting under unknown hyperparameters. Finally, we empirically evaluate our algorithm on a set of toy problems and show that it can outperform the maximum likelihood estimator.

A major challenge in sample-based inference (SBI) for Bayesian neural networks is the size and structure of the networks' parameter space. Our work shows that successful SBI is possible by embracing the characteristic relationship between weight and function space, uncovering a systematic link between overparameterization and the difficulty of the sampling problem. Through extensive experiments, we establish practical guidelines for sampling and convergence diagnosis. As a result, we present a Bayesian deep ensemble approach as an effective solution with competitive performance and uncertainty quantification.