People often give instructions whose meaning is ambiguous without further context, expecting that their actions or goals will disambiguate their intentions. How can we build assistive agents that follow such instructions in a flexible, context-sensitive manner? This paper introduces cooperative language-guided inverse plan search (CLIPS), a Bayesian agent architecture for pragmatic instruction following and goal assistance. Our agent assists a human by modeling them as a cooperative planner who communicates joint plans to the assistant, then performs multimodal Bayesian inference over the human's goal from actions and language, using large language models (LLMs) to evaluate the likelihood of an instruction given a hypothesized plan. Given this posterior, our assistant acts to minimize expected goal achievement cost, enabling it to pragmatically follow ambiguous instructions and provide effective assistance even when uncertain about the goal. We evaluate these capabilities in two cooperative planning domains (Doors, Keys & Gems and VirtualHome), finding that CLIPS significantly outperforms GPT-4V, LLM-based literal instruction following and unimodal inverse planning in both accuracy and helpfulness, while closely matching the inferences and assistive judgments provided by human raters.

Extracting information efficiently from quantum systems is a major component of quantum information processing tasks. Randomized measurements, or classical shadows, enable predicting many properties of arbitrary quantum states using few measurements. While random single qubit measurements are experimentally friendly and suitable for learning low-weight Pauli observables, they perform poorly for nonlocal observables. Prepending a shallow random quantum circuit before measurements maintains this experimental friendliness, but also has favorable sample complexities for observables beyond low-weight Paulis, including high-weight Paulis and global low-rank properties such as fidelity. However, in realistic scenarios, quantum noise accumulated with each additional layer of the shallow circuit biases the results. To address these challenges, we propose the robust shallow shadows protocol. Our protocol uses Bayesian inference to learn the experimentally relevant noise model and mitigate it in postprocessing. This mitigation introduces a bias-variance trade-off: correcting for noise-induced bias comes at the cost of a larger estimator variance. Despite this increased variance, as we demonstrate on a superconducting quantum processor, our protocol correctly recovers state properties such as expectation values, fidelity, and entanglement entropy, while maintaining a lower sample complexity compared to the random single qubit measurement scheme. We also theoretically analyze the effects of noise on sample complexity and show how the optimal choice of the shallow shadow depth varies with noise strength. This combined theoretical and experimental analysis positions the robust shallow shadow protocol as a scalable, robust, and sample-efficient protocol for characterizing quantum states on current quantum computing platforms.

The expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is a widespread method for empirical Bayesian inference, but its expectation step (E-step) is often intractable. Employing a stochastic approximation scheme with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can circumvent this issue, resulting in an algorithm known as MCMC-SAEM. While theoretical guarantees for MCMC-SAEM have previously been established, these results are restricted to the case where asymptotically unbiased MCMC algorithms are used. In practice, MCMC-SAEM is often run with asymptotically biased MCMC, for which the consequences are theoretically less understood. In this work, we fill this gap by analyzing the asymptotics and non-asymptotics of SAEM with biased MCMC steps, particularly the effect of bias. We also provide numerical experiments comparing the Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA), which is asymptotically unbiased, and the unadjusted Langevin algorithm (ULA), which is asymptotically biased, on synthetic and real datasets. Experimental results show that ULA is more stable with respect to the choice of Langevin stepsize and can sometimes result in faster convergence.

Parameter estimation is one of the most important tasks in statistics, and is key to helping people understand the distribution behind a sample of observations. Traditionally parameter estimation is done either by closed-form solutions (e.g., maximum likelihood estimation for Gaussian distribution), or by iterative numerical methods such as Newton-Raphson method when closed-form solution does not exist (e.g., for Beta distribution). In this paper we propose a transformer-based approach to parameter estimation. Compared with existing solutions, our approach does not require a closed-form solution or any mathematical derivations. It does not even require knowing the probability density function, which is needed by numerical methods. After the transformer model is trained, only a single inference is needed to estimate the parameters of the underlying distribution based on a sample of observations. In the empirical study we compared our approach with maximum likelihood estimation on commonly used distributions such as normal distribution, exponential distribution and beta distribution. It is shown that our approach achieves similar or better accuracy as measured by mean-square-errors.

Experimental (design) optimization is a key driver in designing and discovering new products and processes. Bayesian Optimization (BO) is an effective tool for optimizing expensive and black-box experimental design processes. While Bayesian optimization is a principled data-driven approach to experimental optimization, it learns everything from scratch and could greatly benefit from the expertise of its human (domain) experts who often reason about systems at different abstraction levels using physical properties that are not necessarily directly measured (or measurable). In this paper, we propose a human-AI collaborative Bayesian framework to incorporate expert preferences about unmeasured abstract properties into the surrogate modeling to further boost the performance of BO. We provide an efficient strategy that can also handle any incorrect/misleading expert bias in preferential judgments. We discuss the convergence behavior of our proposed framework. Our experimental results involving synthetic functions and real-world datasets show the superiority of our method against the baselines.

Particle filters are a frequent choice for inference tasks in nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models. They can either be used for state inference by approximating the filtering distribution or for parameter inference by approximating the marginal data (observation) likelihood. A good proposal distribution and a good resampling scheme are crucial to obtain low variance estimates. However, traditional methods like multinomial resampling introduce nondifferentiability in PF-based loss functions for parameter estimation, prohibiting gradient-based learning tasks. This work proposes a differentiable resampling scheme by deterministic sampling from an empirical cumulative distribution function. We evaluate our method on parameter inference tasks and proposal learning.

We characterise the likelihood function computed from a Bayesian network with latent variables as root nodes. We show that the marginal distribution over the remaining, manifest, variables also factorises as a Bayesian network, which we call empirical. A dataset of observations of the manifest variables allows us to quantify the parameters of the empirical Bayesian net. We prove that (i) the likelihood of such a dataset from the original Bayesian network is dominated by the global maximum of the likelihood from the empirical one; and that (ii) such a maximum is attained if and only if the parameters of the Bayesian network are consistent with those of the empirical model.

Data assimilation (DA) methods use priors arising from differential equations to robustly interpolate and extrapolate data. Popular techniques such as ensemble methods that handle high-dimensional, nonlinear PDE priors focus mostly on state estimation, however can have difficulty learning the parameters accurately. On the other hand, machine learning based approaches can naturally learn the state and parameters, but their applicability can be limited, or produce uncertainties that are hard to interpret. Inspired by the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) method in spatial statistics, we propose an alternative approach to DA based on iteratively linearising the dynamical model. This produces a Gaussian Markov random field at each iteration, enabling one to use INLA to infer the state and parameters. Our approach can be used for arbitrary nonlinear systems, while retaining interpretability, and is furthermore demonstrated to outperform existing methods on the DA task. By providing a more nuanced approach to handling nonlinear PDE priors, our methodology offers improved accuracy and robustness in predictions, especially where data sparsity is prevalent.

Noise-contrastive estimation (NCE) is a popular method for estimating unnormalised probabilistic models, such as energy-based models, which are effective for modelling complex data distributions. Unlike classical maximum likelihood (ML) estimation that relies on importance sampling (resulting in ML-IS) or MCMC (resulting in contrastive divergence, CD), NCE uses a proxy criterion to avoid the need for evaluating an often intractable normalisation constant. Despite apparent conceptual differences, we show that two NCE criteria, ranking NCE (RNCE) and conditional NCE (CNCE), can be viewed as ML estimation methods. Specifically, RNCE is equivalent to ML estimation combined with conditional importance sampling, and both RNCE and CNCE are special cases of CD. These findings bridge the gap between the two method classes and allow us to apply techniques from the ML-IS and CD literature to NCE, offering several advantageous extensions.

Imaging is the process of transforming noisy, incomplete data into a space that humans can interpret. NIFTy is a Bayesian framework for imaging and has already successfully been applied to many fields in astrophysics. Previous design decisions held the performance and the development of methods in NIFTy back. We present a rewrite of NIFTy, coined NIFTy.re, which reworks the modeling principle, extends the inference strategies, and outsources much of the heavy lifting to JAX. The rewrite dramatically accelerates models written in NIFTy, lays the foundation for new types of inference machineries, improves maintainability, and enables interoperability between NIFTy and the JAX machine learning ecosystem.