We present a Bayesian nonparametric model that discovers implicit social structure from interaction time-series data. Social groups are often formed implicitly, through actions among members of groups. Yet many models of social networks use explicitly declared relationships to infer social structure. We consider a particular class of Hawkes processes, a doubly stochastic point process, that is able to model reciprocity between groups of individuals. We then extend the Infinite Relational Model by using these reciprocating Hawkes processes to parameterise its edges, making events associated with edges co-dependent through time. Our model outperforms general, unstructured Hawkes processes as well as structured Poisson process-based models at predicting verbal and email turn-taking, and military conflicts among nations.

Sampling and variational inference techniques are two standard methods for inference in probabilistic models, but for many problems, neither approach scales effectively to large-scale data. An alternative is to relax the probabilistic model into a non-probabilistic formulation which has a scalable associated algorithm. This can often be fulfilled by performing small-variance asymptotics, i.e., letting the variance of particular distributions in the model go to zero. For instance, in the context of clustering, such an approach yields connections between the k-means and EM algorithms. In this paper, we explore small-variance asymptotics for exponential family Dirichlet process (DP) and hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) mixture models. Utilizing connections between exponential family distributions and Bregman divergences, we derive novel clustering algorithms from the asymptotic limit of the DP and HDP mixtures that features the scalability of existing hard clustering methods as well as the flexibility of Bayesian nonparametric models. We focus on special cases of our analysis for discrete-data problems, including topic modeling, and we demonstrate the utility of our results by applying variants of our algorithms to problems arising in vision and document analysis.

Sparse linear (or generalized linear) models combine a standard likelihood function with a sparse prior on the unknown coefficients. These priors can conveniently be expressed as a maximization over zero-mean Gaussians with different variance hyperparameters. Standard MAP estimation (Type I) involves maximizing over both the hyperparameters and coefficients, while an empirical Bayesian alternative (Type II) first marginalizes the coefficients and then maximizes over the hyperparameters, leading to a tractable posterior approximation. The underlying cost functions can be related via a dual-space framework from [22], which allows both the Type I or Type II objectives to be expressed in either coefficient or hyperparmeter space. This perspective is useful because some analyses or extensions are more conducive to development in one space or the other. Herein we consider the estimation of a trade-off parameter balancing sparsity and data fit. As this parameter is effectively a variance, natural estimators exist by assessing the problem in hyperparameter (variance) space, transitioning natural ideas from Type II to solve what is much less intuitive for Type I. In contrast, for analyses of update rules and sparsity properties of local and global solutions, as well as extensions to more general likelihood models, we can leverage coefficient-space techniques developed for Type I and apply them to Type II.

Bayesian model-based reinforcement learning is a formally elegant approach to learning optimal behaviour under model uncertainty, trading off exploration and exploitation in an ideal way. Unfortunately, finding the resulting Bayes-optimal policies is notoriously taxing, since the search space becomes enormous. In this paper we introduce a tractable, sample-based method for approximate Bayesoptimal planning which exploits Monte-Carlo tree search. Our approach outperformed prior Bayesian model-based RL algorithms by a significant margin on several well-known benchmark problems - because it avoids expensive applications of Bayes rule within the search tree by lazily sampling models from the current beliefs. We illustrate the advantages of our approach by showing it working in an infinite state space domain which is qualitatively out of reach of almost all previous work in Bayesian exploration.

The variational Bayesian (VB) approach is one of the best tractable approximations to the Bayesian estimation, and it was demonstrated to perform well in many applications. However, its good performance was not fully understood theoretically. For example, VB sometimes produces a sparse solution, which is regarded as a practical advantage of VB, but such sparsity is hardly observed in the rigorous Bayesian estimation. In this paper, we focus on probabilistic PCA and give more theoretical insight into the empirical success of VB. More specifically, for the situation where the noise variance is unknown, we derive a sufficient condition for perfect recovery of the true PCA dimensionality in the large-scale limit when the size of an observed matrix goes to infinity. In our analysis, we obtain bounds for a noise variance estimator and simple closed-form solutions for other parameters, which themselves are actually very useful for better implementation of VB-PCA.

Mixture distributions are often used to model complex data. In this paper, we develop a new method that jointly estimates mixture models over multiple data sets by exploiting the statistical dependencies between them. Specifically, we introduce a set of latent Dirichlet processes as sources of component models (atoms), and for each data set, we construct a nonparametric mixture model by combining sub-sampled versions of the latent DPs. Each mixture model may acquire atoms from different latent DPs, while each atom may be shared by multiple mixtures. This multi-to-multi association distinguishes the proposed method from previous ones that require the model structure to be a tree or a chain, allowing more flexible designs. We also derive a sampling algorithm that jointly infers the model parameters and present experiments on both document analysis and image modeling.

We develop a probabilistic model of legislative data that uses the text of the bills to uncover lawmakers' positions on specific political issues. Our model can be used to explore how a lawmaker's voting patterns deviate from what is expected and how that deviation depends on what is being voted on. We derive approximate posterior inference algorithms based on variational methods. Across 12 years of legislative data, we demonstrate both improvement in heldout predictive performance and the model's utility in interpreting an inherently multi-dimensional space.

We consider the problem of learning control policies via trajectory preference queries to an expert. In particular, the agent presents an expert with short runs of a pair of policies originating from the same state and the expert indicates which trajectory is preferred. The agent's goal is to elicit a latent target policy from the expert with as few queries as possible. To tackle this problem we propose a novel Bayesian model of the querying process and introduce two methods that exploit this model to actively select expert queries. Experimental results on four benchmark problems indicate that our model can effectively learn policies from trajectory preference queries and that active query selection can be substantially more efficient than random selection.

We present a nonparametric Bayesian approach to inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) for multiple reward functions. Most previous IRL algorithms assume that the behaviour data is obtained from an agent who is optimizing a single reward function, but this assumption is hard to guarantee in practice. Our approach is based on integrating the Dirichlet process mixture model into Bayesian IRL. We provide an efficient Metropolis-Hastings sampling algorithm utilizing the gradient of the posterior to estimate the underlying reward functions, and demonstrate that our approach outperforms previous ones via experiments on a number of problem domains.

Recent spiking network models of Bayesian inference and unsupervised learning frequently assume either inputs to arrive in a special format or employ complex computations in neuronal activation functions and synaptic plasticity rules. Here we show in a rigorous mathematical treatment how homeostatic processes, which have previously received little attention in this context, can overcome common theoretical limitations and facilitate the neural implementation and performance of existing models. In particular, we show that homeostatic plasticity can be understood as the enforcement of a'balancing' posterior constraint during probabilistic inference and learning with Expectation Maximization. We link homeostatic dynamics to the theory of variational inference, and show that nontrivial terms, which typically appear during probabilistic inference in a large class of models, drop out. We demonstrate the feasibility of our approach in a spiking Winner-Take-All architecture of Bayesian inference and learning. Finally, we sketch how the mathematical framework can be extended to richer recurrent network architectures. Altogether, our theory provides a novel perspective on the interplay of homeostatic processes and synaptic plasticity in cortical microcircuits, and points to an essential role of homeostasis during inference and learning in spiking networks.