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 Bayesian Inference


AIOps Solutions for Incident Management: Technical Guidelines and A Comprehensive Literature Review

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The management of modern IT systems poses unique challenges, necessitating scalability, reliability, and efficiency in handling extensive data streams. Traditional methods, reliant on manual tasks and rule-based approaches, prove inefficient for the substantial data volumes and alerts generated by IT systems. Artificial Intelligence for Operating Systems (AIOps) has emerged as a solution, leveraging advanced analytics like machine learning and big data to enhance incident management. AIOps detects and predicts incidents, identifies root causes, and automates healing actions, improving quality and reducing operational costs. However, despite its potential, the AIOps domain is still in its early stages, decentralized across multiple sectors, and lacking standardized conventions. Research and industrial contributions are distributed without consistent frameworks for data management, target problems, implementation details, requirements, and capabilities. This study proposes an AIOps terminology and taxonomy, establishing a structured incident management procedure and providing guidelines for constructing an AIOps framework. The research also categorizes contributions based on criteria such as incident management tasks, application areas, data sources, and technical approaches. The goal is to provide a comprehensive review of technical and research aspects in AIOps for incident management, aiming to structure knowledge, identify gaps, and establish a foundation for future developments in the field.


Privacy Re-identification Attacks on Tabular GANs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Generative models are subject to overfitting and thus may potentially leak sensitive information from the training data. In this work. we investigate the privacy risks that can potentially arise from the use of generative adversarial networks (GANs) for creating tabular synthetic datasets. For the purpose, we analyse the effects of re-identification attacks on synthetic data, i.e., attacks which aim at selecting samples that are predicted to correspond to memorised training samples based on their proximity to the nearest synthetic records. We thus consider multiple settings where different attackers might have different access levels or knowledge of the generative model and predictive, and assess which information is potentially most useful for launching more successful re-identification attacks. In doing so we also consider the situation for which re-identification attacks are formulated as reconstruction attacks, i.e., the situation where an attacker uses evolutionary multi-objective optimisation for perturbing synthetic samples closer to the training space. The results indicate that attackers can indeed pose major privacy risks by selecting synthetic samples that are likely representative of memorised training samples. In addition, we notice that privacy threats considerably increase when the attacker either has knowledge or has black-box access to the generative models. We also find that reconstruction attacks through multi-objective optimisation even increase the risk of identifying confidential samples.


Adversarially-Robust Inference on Trees via Belief Propagation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce and study the problem of posterior inference on tree-structured graphical models in the presence of a malicious adversary who can corrupt some observed nodes. In the well-studied broadcasting on trees model, corresponding to the ferromagnetic Ising model on a $d$-regular tree with zero external field, when a natural signal-to-noise ratio exceeds one (the celebrated Kesten-Stigum threshold), the posterior distribution of the root given the leaves is bounded away from $\mathrm{Ber}(1/2)$, and carries nontrivial information about the sign of the root. This posterior distribution can be computed exactly via dynamic programming, also known as belief propagation. We first confirm a folklore belief that a malicious adversary who can corrupt an inverse-polynomial fraction of the leaves of their choosing makes this inference impossible. Our main result is that accurate posterior inference about the root vertex given the leaves is possible when the adversary is constrained to make corruptions at a $\rho$-fraction of randomly-chosen leaf vertices, so long as the signal-to-noise ratio exceeds $O(\log d)$ and $\rho \leq c \varepsilon$ for some universal $c > 0$. Since inference becomes information-theoretically impossible when $\rho \gg \varepsilon$, this amounts to an information-theoretically optimal fraction of corruptions, up to a constant multiplicative factor. Furthermore, we show that the canonical belief propagation algorithm performs this inference.


Bayesian Exploration of Pre-trained Models for Low-shot Image Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Low-shot image classification is a fundamental task in computer vision, and the emergence of large-scale vision-language models such as CLIP has greatly advanced the forefront of research in this field. However, most existing CLIP-based methods lack the flexibility to effectively incorporate other pre-trained models that encompass knowledge distinct from CLIP. To bridge the gap, this work proposes a simple and effective probabilistic model ensemble framework based on Gaussian processes, which have previously demonstrated remarkable efficacy in processing small data. We achieve the integration of prior knowledge by specifying the mean function with CLIP and the kernel function with an ensemble of deep kernels built upon various pre-trained models. By regressing the classification label directly, our framework enables analytical inference, straightforward uncertainty quantification, and principled hyper-parameter tuning. Through extensive experiments on standard benchmarks, we demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms competitive ensemble baselines regarding predictive performance. Additionally, we assess the robustness of our method and the quality of the yielded uncertainty estimates on out-of-distribution datasets. We also illustrate that our method, despite relying on label regression, still enjoys superior model calibration compared to most deterministic baselines.


CONCERT: Covariate-Elaborated Robust Local Information Transfer with Conditional Spike-and-Slab Prior

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The popularity of transfer learning stems from the fact that it can borrow information from useful auxiliary datasets. Existing statistical transfer learning methods usually adopt a global similarity measure between the source data and the target data, which may lead to inefficiency when only local information is shared. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian transfer learning method named "CONCERT" to allow robust local information transfer for high-dimensional data analysis. A novel conditional spike-and-slab prior is introduced in the joint distribution of target and source parameters for information transfer. By incorporating covariate-specific priors, we can characterize the local similarities and make the sources work collaboratively to help improve the performance on the target. Distinguished from existing work, CONCERT is a one-step procedure, which achieves variable selection and information transfer simultaneously. Variable selection consistency is established for our CONCERT. To make our algorithm scalable, we adopt the variational Bayes framework to facilitate implementation. Extensive experiments and a genetic data analysis demonstrate the validity and the advantage of CONCERT over existing cutting-edge transfer learning methods. We also extend our CONCERT to the logistical models with numerical studies showing its superiority over other methods.


Convolutional Bayesian Filtering

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bayesian filtering serves as the mainstream framework of state estimation in dynamic systems. Its standard version utilizes total probability rule and Bayes' law alternatively, where how to define and compute conditional probability is critical to state distribution inference. Previously, the conditional probability is assumed to be exactly known, which represents a measure of the occurrence probability of one event, given the second event. In this paper, we find that by adding an additional event that stipulates an inequality condition, we can transform the conditional probability into a special integration that is analogous to convolution. Based on this transformation, we show that both transition probability and output probability can be generalized to convolutional forms, resulting in a more general filtering framework that we call convolutional Bayesian filtering. This new framework encompasses standard Bayesian filtering as a special case when the distance metric of the inequality condition is selected as Dirac delta function. It also allows for a more nuanced consideration of model mismatch by choosing different types of inequality conditions. For instance, when the distance metric is defined in a distributional sense, the transition probability and output probability can be approximated by simply rescaling them into fractional powers. Under this framework, a robust version of Kalman filter can be constructed by only altering the noise covariance matrix, while maintaining the conjugate nature of Gaussian distributions. Finally, we exemplify the effectiveness of our approach by reshaping classic filtering algorithms into convolutional versions, including Kalman filter, extended Kalman filter, unscented Kalman filter and particle filter.


A Survey of Machine Learning Techniques for Improving Global Navigation Satellite Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS)-based positioning plays a crucial role in various applications, including navigation, transportation, logistics, mapping, and emergency services. Traditional GNSS positioning methods are model-based and they utilize satellite geometry and the known properties of satellite signals. However, model-based methods have limitations in challenging environments and often lack adaptability to uncertain noise models. This paper highlights recent advances in Machine Learning (ML) and its potential to address these limitations. It covers a broad range of ML methods, including supervised learning, unsupervised learning, deep learning, and hybrid approaches. The survey provides insights into positioning applications related to GNSS such as signal analysis, anomaly detection, multi-sensor integration, prediction, and accuracy enhancement using ML. It discusses the strengths, limitations, and challenges of current ML-based approaches for GNSS positioning, providing a comprehensive overview of the field.


Application of Machine Learning Algorithms in Classifying Postoperative Success in Metabolic Bariatric Surgery: A Comprehensive Study

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Objectives: Metabolic Bariatric Surgery (MBS) is a critical intervention for patients living with obesity and related health issues. Accurate classification and prediction of patient outcomes are vital for optimizing treatment strategies. This study presents a novel machine learning approach to classify patients in the context of metabolic bariatric surgery, providing insights into the efficacy of different models and variable types. Methods: Various machine learning models, including GaussianNB, ComplementNB, KNN, Decision Tree, KNN with RandomOverSampler, and KNN with SMOTE, were applied to a dataset of 73 patients. The dataset, comprising psychometric, socioeconomic, and analytical variables, was analyzed to determine the most efficient predictive model. The study also explored the impact of different variable groupings and oversampling techniques. Results: Experimental results indicate average accuracy values as high as 66.7% for the best model. Enhanced versions of KNN and Decision Tree, along with variations of KNN such as RandomOverSampler and SMOTE, yielded the best results. Conclusions: The study unveils a promising avenue for classifying patients in the realm of metabolic bariatric surgery. The results underscore the importance of selecting appropriate variables and employing diverse approaches to achieve optimal performance. The developed system holds potential as a tool to assist healthcare professionals in decision-making, thereby enhancing metabolic bariatric surgery outcomes. These findings lay the groundwork for future collaboration between hospitals and healthcare entities to improve patient care through the utilization of machine learning algorithms. Moreover, the findings suggest room for improvement, potentially achievable with a larger dataset and careful parameter tuning.


Bayesian Nonparametrics: An Alternative to Deep Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bayesian nonparametric models offer a flexible and powerful framework for statistical model selection, enabling the adaptation of model complexity to the intricacies of diverse datasets. This survey intends to delve into the significance of Bayesian nonparametrics, particularly in addressing complex challenges across various domains such as statistics, computer science, and electrical engineering. By elucidating the basic properties and theoretical foundations of these nonparametric models, this survey aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of Bayesian nonparametrics and their relevance in addressing complex problems, particularly in the domain of multi-object tracking. Through this exploration, we uncover the versatility and efficacy of Bayesian nonparametric methodologies, paving the way for innovative solutions to intricate challenges across diverse disciplines.


The State of Lithium-Ion Battery Health Prognostics in the CPS Era

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Lithium-ion batteries (Li-ion) have revolutionized energy storage technology, becoming integral to our daily lives by powering a diverse range of devices and applications. Their high energy density, fast power response, recyclability, and mobility advantages have made them the preferred choice for numerous sectors. This paper explores the seamless integration of Prognostics and Health Management within batteries, presenting a multidisciplinary approach that enhances the reliability, safety, and performance of these powerhouses. Remaining useful life (RUL), a critical concept in prognostics, is examined in depth, emphasizing its role in predicting component failure before it occurs. The paper reviews various RUL prediction methods, from traditional models to cutting-edge data-driven techniques. Furthermore, it highlights the paradigm shift toward deep learning architectures within the field of Li-ion battery health prognostics, elucidating the pivotal role of deep learning in addressing battery system complexities. Practical applications of PHM across industries are also explored, offering readers insights into real-world implementations.This paper serves as a comprehensive guide, catering to both researchers and practitioners in the field of Li-ion battery PHM.