There are many settings in which we wish to fit a model of the behavior of individuals but where our data consist only of aggregate information (counts or low-dimensional contingency tables). This paper introduces Collective Graphical Models--a framework for modeling and probabilistic inference that operates directly on the sufficient statistics of the individual model. We derive a highlyefficient Gibbs sampling algorithm for sampling from the posterior distribution of the sufficient statistics conditioned on noisy aggregate observations, prove its correctness, and demonstrate its effectiveness experimentally.

State-of-the-art statistical methods in neuroscience have enabled us to fit mathematical models to experimental data and subsequently to infer the dynamics of hidden parameters underlying the observable phenomena. Here, we develop a Bayesian method for inferring the time-varying mean and variance of the synaptic input, along with the dynamics of each ion channel from a single voltage trace of a neuron. An estimation problem may be formulated on the basis of the state-space model with prior distributions that penalize large fluctuations in these parameters. After optimizing the hyperparameters by maximizing the marginal likelihood, the state-space model provides the time-varying parameters of the input signals and the ion channel states. The proposed method is tested not only on the simulated data from the Hodgkin Huxley type models but also on experimental data obtained from a cortical slice in vitro.

We show that the λ-return target used in the TD(λ) family of algorithms is the maximum likelihood estimator for a specific model of how the variance of an n-step return estimate increases with n.

We present a new algorithm for exactly solving decision-making problems represented as an influence diagram. We do not require the usual assumptions of no forgetting and regularity, which allows us to solve problems with limited information.

An important task in exploring and analyzing real-world data sets is to detect unusual and interesting phenomena. In this paper, we study the group anomaly detection problem. Unlike traditional anomaly detection research that focuses on data points, our goal is to discover anomalous aggregated behaviors of groups of points. For this purpose, we propose the Flexible Genre Model (FGM). FGM is designed to characterize data groups at both the point level and the group level so as to detect various types of group anomalies. We evaluate the effectiveness of FGM on both synthetic and real data sets including images and turbulence data, and show that it is superior to existing approaches in detecting group anomalies.

We consider the problem of Bayesian inference for continuous-time multi-stable stochastic systems which can change both their diffusion and drift parameters at discrete times. We propose exact inference and sampling methodologies for two specific cases where the discontinuous dynamics is given by a Poisson process and a two-state Markovian switch. We test the methodology on simulated data, and apply it to two real data sets in finance and systems biology. Our experimental results show that the approach leads to valid inferences and non-trivial insights.

Determining interactions between entities and the overall organization and clustering of nodes in networks is a major challenge when analyzing biological and social network data. Here we extend the Indian Buffet Process (IBP), a nonparametric Bayesian model, to integrate noisy interaction scores with properties of individual entities for inferring interaction networks and clustering nodes within these networks. We present an application of this method to study how microR-NAs regulate mRNAs in cells. Analysis of synthetic and real data indicates that the method improves upon prior methods, correctly recovers interactions and clusters, and provides accurate biological predictions.

We present an asymptotic analysis of Viterbi Training (VT) and contrast it with a more conventional Maximum Likelihood (ML) approach to parameter estimation in Hidden Markov Models. While ML estimator works by (locally) maximizing the likelihood of the observed data, VT seeks to maximize the probability of the most likely hidden state sequence. We develop an analytical framework based on a generating function formalism and illustrate it on an exactly solvable model of HMM with one unambiguous symbol. For this particular model the ML objective function is continuously degenerate. VT objective, in contrast, is shown to have only finite degeneracy.

Is it possible to crowdsource categorization? Amongst the challenges: (a) each worker has only a partial view of the data, (b) different workers may have different clustering criteria and may produce different numbers of categories, (c) the underlying category structure may be hierarchical. We propose a Bayesian model of how workers may approach clustering and show how one may infer clusters / categories, as well as worker parameters, using this model. Our experiments, carried out on large collections of images, suggest that Bayesian crowdclustering works well and may be superior to single-expert annotations.

For many real-world applications, we often need to select correlated variables-- such as genetic variations and imaging features associated with Alzheimer's disease--in a high dimensional space. The correlation between variables presents a challenge to classical variable selection methods. To address this challenge, the elastic net has been developed and successfully applied to many applications. Despite its great success, the elastic net does not exploit the correlation information embedded in the data to select correlated variables. To overcome this limitation, we present a novel hybrid model, EigenNet, that uses the eigenstructures of data to guide variable selection.