Practical Bayesian learning often requires (1) online inference, (2) dynamic models, and (3) ensembling over multiple different models. Recent advances have shown how to use random feature approximations to achieve scalable, online ensembling of Gaussian processes with desirable theoretical properties and fruitful applications. One key to these methods' success is the inclusion of a random walk on the model parameters, which makes models dynamic. We show that these methods can be generalized easily to any basis expansion model and that using alternative basis expansions, such as Hilbert space Gaussian processes, often results in better performance. To simplify the process of choosing a specific basis expansion, our method's generality also allows the ensembling of several entirely different models, for example, a Gaussian process and polynomial regression. Finally, we propose a novel method to ensemble static and dynamic models together.

Consider numerical observations; it is common to calculate their mean and refer to it as central tendency. There are, however, different measures of mean [4]. These measurements are sometimes grouped into families, like Lehmer and Hölder. Distinguishing these measures and better understanding their use involves identifying the link between them and probability density functions (PDFs). For example, the arithmetic mean is the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the position parameter for the normal PDF and the scale parameter for the exponential PDF. For the families of Lehmer and Hölder means, such an interpretation has only recently been proposed for the case of PDFs in the case of the univariate exponential family Let's consider digital observations; it is often common to calculate their mean and designate it as a central tendency. However, there are various measures of the average [2]. These measures are sometimes grouped into families, such as Lehmer and Hölder.

Designing preference elicitation (PE) methodologies that can quickly ascertain a user's top item preferences in a cold-start setting is a key challenge for building effective and personalized conversational recommendation (ConvRec) systems. While large language models (LLMs) constitute a novel technology that enables fully natural language (NL) PE dialogues, we hypothesize that monolithic LLM NL-PE approaches lack the multi-turn, decision-theoretic reasoning required to effectively balance the NL exploration and exploitation of user preferences towards an arbitrary item set. In contrast, traditional Bayesian optimization PE methods define theoretically optimal PE strategies, but fail to use NL item descriptions or generate NL queries, unrealistically assuming users can express preferences with direct item ratings and comparisons. To overcome the limitations of both approaches, we formulate NL-PE in a Bayesian Optimization (BO) framework that seeks to generate NL queries which actively elicit natural language feedback to reduce uncertainty over item utilities to identify the best recommendation. We demonstrate our framework in a novel NL-PE algorithm, PEBOL, which uses Natural Language Inference (NLI) between user preference utterances and NL item descriptions to maintain preference beliefs and BO strategies such as Thompson Sampling (TS) and Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) to guide LLM query generation. We numerically evaluate our methods in controlled experiments, finding that PEBOL achieves up to 131% improvement in MAP@10 after 10 turns of cold start NL-PE dialogue compared to monolithic GPT-3.5, despite relying on a much smaller 400M parameter NLI model for preference inference.

Questions combine our mastery of language with our remarkable facility for reasoning about uncertainty. How do people navigate vast hypothesis spaces to pose informative questions given limited cognitive resources? We study these tradeoffs in a classic grounded question-asking task based on the board game Battleship. Our language-informed program sampling (LIPS) model uses large language models (LLMs) to generate natural language questions, translate them into symbolic programs, and evaluate their expected information gain. We find that with a surprisingly modest resource budget, this simple Monte Carlo optimization strategy yields informative questions that mirror human performance across varied Battleship board scenarios. In contrast, LLM-only baselines struggle to ground questions in the board state; notably, GPT-4V provides no improvement over non-visual baselines. Our results illustrate how Bayesian models of question-asking can leverage the statistics of language to capture human priors, while highlighting some shortcomings of pure LLMs as grounded reasoners.

In the era of noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ), variational quantum circuits (VQCs) have been widely applied in various domains, advancing the superiority of quantum circuits against classic models. Similar to classic models, regular VQCs can be optimized by various gradient-based methods. However, the optimization may be initially trapped in barren plateaus or eventually entangled in saddle points during training. These gradient issues can significantly undermine the trainability of VQC. In this work, we propose a strategy that regularizes model parameters with prior knowledge of the train data and Gaussian noise diffusion. We conduct ablation studies to verify the effectiveness of our strategy across four public datasets and demonstrate that our method can improve the trainability of VQCs against the above-mentioned gradient issues.

The Bayes coding algorithm for context tree source is a successful example of Bayesian tree estimation in text compression in information theory. This algorithm provides an efficient parametric representation of the posterior tree distribution and exact updating of its parameters. We apply this algorithm to a clustering task in machine learning. More specifically, we apply it to Bayesian estimation of the tree-structured stick-breaking process (TS-SBP) mixture models. For TS-SBP mixture models, only Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have been proposed so far, but any variational Bayesian methods have not been proposed yet. In this paper, we propose a variational Bayesian method that has a subroutine similar to the Bayes coding algorithm for context tree sources. We confirm its behavior by a numerical experiment on a toy example.

Network scientists often use complex dynamic processes to describe network contagions, but tools for fitting contagion models typically assume simple dynamics. Here, we address this gap by developing a nonparametric method to reconstruct a network and dynamics from a series of node states, using a model that breaks the dichotomy between simple pairwise and complex neighborhood-based contagions. We then show that a network is more easily reconstructed when observed through the lens of complex contagions if it is dense or the dynamic saturates, and that simple contagions are better otherwise.

Bayes' rule describes how to infer posterior beliefs about latent variables given observations, and inference is a critical step in learning algorithms for latent variable models (LVMs). Although there are exact algorithms for inference and learning for certain LVMs such as linear Gaussian models and mixture models, researchers must typically develop approximate inference and learning algorithms when applying novel LVMs. In this paper we study the line that separates LVMs that rely on approximation schemes from those that do not, and develop a general theory of exponential family, latent variable models for which inference and learning may be implemented exactly. Firstly, under mild assumptions about the exponential family form of a given LVM, we derive necessary and sufficient conditions under which the LVM prior is in the same exponential family as its posterior, such that the prior is conjugate to the posterior. We show that all models that satisfy these conditions are constrained forms of a particular class of exponential family graphical model. We then derive general inference and learning algorithms, and demonstrate them on a variety of example models. Finally, we show how to compose our models into graphical models that retain tractable inference and learning. In addition to our theoretical work, we have implemented our algorithms in a collection of libraries with which we provide numerous demonstrations of our theory, and with which researchers may apply our theory in novel statistical settings.

For nearly three decades, language models derived from the $n$-gram assumption held the state of the art on the task. The key to their success lay in the application of various smoothing techniques that served to combat overfitting. However, when neural language models toppled $n$-gram models as the best performers, $n$-gram smoothing techniques became less relevant. Indeed, it would hardly be an understatement to suggest that the line of inquiry into $n$-gram smoothing techniques became dormant. This paper re-opens the role classical $n$-gram smoothing techniques may play in the age of neural language models. First, we draw a formal equivalence between label smoothing, a popular regularization technique for neural language models, and add-$\lambda$ smoothing. Second, we derive a generalized framework for converting any $n$-gram smoothing technique into a regularizer compatible with neural language models. Our empirical results find that our novel regularizers are comparable to and, indeed, sometimes outperform label smoothing on language modeling and machine translation.

Brain responses related to working memory originate from distinct brain areas and oscillate at different frequencies. EEG signals with high temporal correlation can effectively capture these responses. Therefore, estimating the functional connectivity of EEG for working memory protocols in different frequency bands plays a significant role in analyzing the brain dynamics with increasing memory and cognitive loads, which remains largely unexplored. The present study introduces a Bayesian structure learning algorithm to learn the functional connectivity of EEG in sensor space. Next, the functional connectivity graphs are taken as input to the graph convolutional network to classify the working memory loads. The intrasubject (subject-specific) classification performed on 154 subjects for six different verbal working memory loads produced the highest classification accuracy of 96% and average classification accuracy of 89%, outperforming state-of-the-art classification models proposed in the literature. Furthermore, the proposed Bayesian structure learning algorithm is compared with state-of-the-art functional connectivity estimation methods through intersubject and intrasubject statistical analysis of variance. The results also show that the alpha and theta bands have better classification accuracy than the beta band.