Differential privacy (DP) has been accepted as a rigorous criterion for measuring the privacy protection offered by random mechanisms used to obtain statistics or, as we will study here, synthetic datasets from confidential data. Methods to generate such datasets are increasingly numerous, using varied tools including Bayesian models, deep neural networks and copulas. However, little is still known about how to properly perform statistical inference with these differentially private synthetic (DIPS) datasets. The challenge is for the analyses to take into account the variability from the synthetic data generation in addition to the usual sampling variability. A similar challenge also occurs when missing data is imputed before analysis, and statisticians have developed appropriate inference procedures for this case, which we tend extended to the case of synthetic datasets for privacy. In this work, we study the applicability of these procedures, based on combining rules, to the analysis of DIPS datasets. Our empirical experiments show that the proposed combining rules may offer accurate inference in certain contexts, but not in all cases.

Bayesian few-shot classification has been a focal point in the field of few-shot learning. This paper seamlessly integrates mirror descent-based variational inference into Gaussian process-based few-shot classification, addressing the challenge of non-conjugate inference. By leveraging non-Euclidean geometry, mirror descent achieves accelerated convergence by providing the steepest descent direction along the corresponding manifold. It also exhibits the parameterization invariance property concerning the variational distribution. Experimental results demonstrate competitive classification accuracy, improved uncertainty quantification, and faster convergence compared to baseline models. Additionally, we investigate the impact of hyperparameters and components. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/keanson/MD-BSFC.

A fundamental problem associated with the task of network reconstruction from dynamical or behavioral data consists in determining the most appropriate model complexity in a manner that prevents overfitting, and produces an inferred network with a statistically justifiable number of edges. The status quo in this context is based on $L_{1}$ regularization combined with cross-validation. However, besides its high computational cost, this commonplace approach unnecessarily ties the promotion of sparsity with weight "shrinkage". This combination forces a trade-off between the bias introduced by shrinkage and the network sparsity, which often results in substantial overfitting even after cross-validation. In this work, we propose an alternative nonparametric regularization scheme based on hierarchical Bayesian inference and weight quantization, which does not rely on weight shrinkage to promote sparsity. Our approach follows the minimum description length (MDL) principle, and uncovers the weight distribution that allows for the most compression of the data, thus avoiding overfitting without requiring cross-validation. The latter property renders our approach substantially faster to employ, as it requires a single fit to the complete data. As a result, we have a principled and efficient inference scheme that can be used with a large variety of generative models, without requiring the number of edges to be known in advance. We also demonstrate that our scheme yields systematically increased accuracy in the reconstruction of both artificial and empirical networks. We highlight the use of our method with the reconstruction of interaction networks between microbial communities from large-scale abundance samples involving in the order of $10^{4}$ to $10^{5}$ species, and demonstrate how the inferred model can be used to predict the outcome of interventions in the system.

Vertical federated learning (VFL) has emerged as a paradigm for collaborative model estimation across multiple clients, each holding a distinct set of covariates. This paper introduces the first comprehensive framework for fitting Bayesian models in the VFL setting. We propose a novel approach that leverages data augmentation techniques to transform VFL problems into a form compatible with existing Bayesian federated learning algorithms. We present an innovative model formulation for specific VFL scenarios where the joint likelihood factorizes into a product of client-specific likelihoods. To mitigate the dimensionality challenge posed by data augmentation, which scales with the number of observations and clients, we develop a factorized amortized variational approximation that achieves scalability independent of the number of observations. We showcase the efficacy of our framework through extensive numerical experiments on logistic regression, multilevel regression, and a novel hierarchical Bayesian split neural net model. Our work paves the way for privacy-preserving, decentralized Bayesian inference in vertically partitioned data scenarios, opening up new avenues for research and applications in various domains.

Accurate representations of unknown and sub-grid physical processes through parameterizations (or closure) in numerical simulations with quantified uncertainty are critical for resolving the coarse-grained partial differential equations that govern many problems ranging from weather and climate prediction to turbulence simulations. Recent advances have seen machine learning (ML) increasingly applied to model these subgrid processes, resulting in the development of hybrid physics-ML models through the integration with numerical solvers. In this work, we introduce a novel framework for the joint estimation of physical parameters and machine learning parameterizations with uncertainty quantification. Our framework incorporates online training and efficient Bayesian inference within a high-dimensional parameter space, facilitated by differentiable programming. This proof of concept underscores the substantial potential of differentiable programming in synergistically combining machine learning with differential equations, thereby enhancing the capabilities of hybrid physics-ML modeling.

Uncertainty has long been a critical area of study in robotics, particularly when robots are equipped with analytical models. As we move towards the widespread use of deep neural networks in robots, which have demonstrated remarkable performance in research settings, understanding the nuances of uncertainty becomes crucial for their real-world deployment. This guide offers an overview of the importance of uncertainty and provides methods to quantify and evaluate it from an applications perspective.

Fine-tuned Large Language Models (LLMs) often suffer from overconfidence and poor calibration, particularly when fine-tuned on small datasets. To address these challenges, we propose a simple combination of Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) with Gaussian Stochastic Weight Averaging (SWAG), facilitating approximate Bayesian inference in LLMs. Through extensive testing across several Natural Language Processing (NLP) benchmarks, we demonstrate that our straightforward and computationally efficient approach improves model generalization and calibration competitively with comparable, more sophisticated methods for Bayesian inference in LLMs. We further show that our method exhibits greater robustness against distribution shift, as reflected in its performance on out-of-distribution tasks.

Finding low-dimensional interpretable models of complex physical fields such as turbulence remains an open question, 80 years after the pioneer work of Kolmogorov. Estimating high-dimensional probability distributions from data samples suffers from an optimization and an approximation curse of dimensionality. It may be avoided by following a hierarchic probability flow from coarse to fine scales. This inverse renormalization group is defined by conditional probabilities across scales, renormalized in a wavelet basis. For a $\varphi^4$ scalar potential, sampling these hierarchic models avoids the critical slowing down at the phase transition. An outstanding issue is to also approximate non-Gaussian fields having long-range interactions in space and across scales. We introduce low-dimensional models with robust multiscale approximations of high order polynomial energies. They are calculated with a second wavelet transform, which defines interactions over two hierarchies of scales. We estimate and sample these wavelet scattering models to generate 2D vorticity fields of turbulence, and images of dark matter densities.

In this paper, we present a novel approach to accelerate the Bayesian inference process, focusing specifically on the nested sampling algorithms. Bayesian inference plays a crucial role in cosmological parameter estimation, providing a robust framework for extracting theoretical insights from observational data. However, its computational demands can be substantial, primarily due to the need for numerous likelihood function evaluations. Our proposed method utilizes the power of deep learning, employing feedforward neural networks to approximate the likelihood function dynamically during the Bayesian inference process. Unlike traditional approaches, our method trains neural networks on-the-fly using the current set of live points as training data, without the need for pre-training. This flexibility enables adaptation to various theoretical models and datasets. We perform simple hyperparameter optimization using genetic algorithms to suggest initial neural network architectures for learning each likelihood function. Once sufficient accuracy is achieved, the neural network replaces the original likelihood function. The implementation integrates with nested sampling algorithms and has been thoroughly evaluated using both simple cosmological dark energy models and diverse observational datasets. Additionally, we explore the potential of genetic algorithms for generating initial live points within nested sampling inference, opening up new avenues for enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of Bayesian inference methods.

In the mixture of experts model, a common assumption is the linearity between a response variable and covariates. While this assumption has theoretical and computational benefits, it may lead to suboptimal estimates by overlooking potential nonlinear relationships among the variables. To address this limitation, we propose a partially linear structure that incorporates unspecified functions to capture nonlinear relationships. We establish the identifiability of the proposed model under mild conditions and introduce a practical estimation algorithm. We present the performance of our approach through numerical studies, including simulations and real data analysis.