Although theoretically compelling, Bayesian learning with modern machine learning models is computationally challenging since it requires approximating a high dimensional posterior distribution. In this work, we (i) introduce posteriors, an easily extensible PyTorch library hosting general-purpose implementations making Bayesian learning accessible and scalable to large data and parameter regimes; (ii) present a tempered framing of stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo, as implemented in posteriors, that transitions seamlessly into optimization and unveils a minor modification to deep ensembles to ensure they are asymptotically unbiased for the Bayesian posterior, and (iii) demonstrate and compare the utility of Bayesian approximations through experiments including an investigation into the cold posterior effect and applications with large language models.

Networked datasets are often enriched by different types of information about individual nodes or edges. However, most existing methods for analyzing such datasets struggle to handle the complexity of heterogeneous data, often requiring substantial model-specific analysis. In this paper, we develop a probabilistic generative model to perform inference in multilayer networks with arbitrary types of information. Our approach employs a Bayesian framework combined with the Laplace matching technique to ease interpretation of inferred parameters. Furthermore, the algorithmic implementation relies on automatic differentiation, avoiding the need for explicit derivations. This makes our model scalable and flexible to adapt to any combination of input data. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in detecting overlapping community structures and performing various prediction tasks on heterogeneous multilayer data, where nodes and edges have different types of attributes. Additionally, we showcase its ability to unveil a variety of patterns in a social support network among villagers in rural India by effectively utilizing all input information in a meaningful way.

A complete and statistically consistent uncertainty quantification for deep learning is provided, including the sources of uncertainty arising from (1) the new input data, (2) the training and testing data (3) the weight vectors of the neural network, and (4) the neural network because it is not a perfect predictor. Using Bayes Theorem and conditional probability densities, we demonstrate how each uncertainty source can be systematically quantified. We also introduce a fast and practical way to incorporate and combine all sources of errors for the first time. For illustration, the new method is applied to quantify errors in cloud autoconversion rates, predicted from an artificial neural network that was trained by aircraft cloud probe measurements in the Azores and the stochastic collection equation formulated as a two-moment bin model. For this specific example, the output uncertainty arising from uncertainty in the training and testing data is dominant, followed by uncertainty in the input data, in the trained neural network, and uncertainty in the weights. We discuss the usefulness of the methodology for machine learning practice, and how, through inclusion of uncertainty in the training data, the new methodology is less sensitive to input data that falls outside of the training data set.

Species subject to predation and environmental threats commonly exhibit variable periods of population boom and bust over long timescales. Understanding and predicting such behavior, especially given the inherent heterogeneity and stochasticity of exogenous driving factors over short timescales, is an ongoing challenge. A modeling paradigm gaining popularity in the ecological sciences for such multi-scale effects is to couple short-term continuous dynamics to long-term discrete updates. We develop a data-driven method utilizing weak-form equation learning to extract such hybrid governing equations for population dynamics and to estimate the requisite parameters using sparse intermittent measurements of the discrete and continuous variables. The method produces a set of short-term continuous dynamical system equations parametrized by long-term variables, and long-term discrete equations parametrized by short-term variables, allowing direct assessment of interdependencies between the two time scales. We demonstrate the utility of the method on a variety of ecological scenarios and provide extensive tests using models previously derived for epizootics experienced by the North American spongy moth (Lymantria dispar dispar).

Federated Semi-Supervised Learning (FSSL) leverages both labeled and unlabeled data on clients to collaboratively train a model.In FSSL, the heterogeneous data can introduce prediction bias into the model, causing the model's prediction to skew towards some certain classes. Existing FSSL methods primarily tackle this issue by enhancing consistency in model parameters or outputs. However, as the models themselves are biased, merely constraining their consistency is not sufficient to alleviate prediction bias. In this paper, we explore this bias from a Bayesian perspective and demonstrate that it principally originates from label prior bias within the training data. Building upon this insight, we propose a debiasing method for FSSL named FedDB. FedDB utilizes the Average Prediction Probability of Unlabeled Data (APP-U) to approximate the biased prior.During local training, FedDB employs APP-U to refine pseudo-labeling through Bayes' theorem, thereby significantly reducing the label prior bias. Concurrently, during the model aggregation, FedDB uses APP-U from participating clients to formulate unbiased aggregate weights, thereby effectively diminishing bias in the global model. Experimental results show that FedDB can surpass existing FSSL methods. The code is available at https://github.com/GuogangZhu/FedDB.

Predictive posterior densities (PPDs) are of interest in approximate Bayesian inference. Typically, these are estimated by simple Monte Carlo (MC) averages using samples from the approximate posterior. We observe that the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of such estimators can be extremely low. An analysis for exact inference reveals SNR decays exponentially as there is an increase in (a) the mismatch between training and test data, (b) the dimensionality of the latent space, or (c) the size of the test data relative to the training data. Further analysis extends these results to approximate inference. To remedy the low SNR problem, we propose replacing simple MC sampling with importance sampling using a proposal distribution optimized at test time on a variational proxy for the SNR and demonstrate that this yields greatly improved estimates.

We propose a novel approach to sequential Bayesian inference based on variational Bayes. The key insight is that, in the online setting, we do not need to add the KL term to regularize to the prior (which comes from the posterior at the previous timestep); instead we can optimize just the expected log-likelihood, performing a single step of natural gradient descent starting at the prior predictive. We prove this method recovers exact Bayesian inference if the model is conjugate, and empirically outperforms other online VB methods in the non-conjugate setting, such as online learning for neural networks, especially when controlling for computational costs.

Despite their benefits in terms of simplicity, low computational cost and data requirement, parametric machine learning algorithms, such as linear discriminant analysis, quadratic discriminant analysis or logistic regression, suffer from serious drawbacks including linearity, poor fit of features to the usually imposed normal distribution and high dimensionality. Batch kernel-based nonparametric classifier, which overcomes the linearity and normality of features constraints, represent an interesting alternative for supervised classification problem. However, it suffers from the ``curse of dimension". The problem can be alleviated by the explosive sample size in the era of big data, while large-scale data size presents some challenges in the storage of data and the calculation of the classifier. These challenges make the classical batch nonparametric classifier no longer applicable. This motivates us to develop a fast algorithm adapted to the real-time calculation of the nonparametric classifier in massive as well as streaming data frameworks. This online classifier includes two steps. First, we consider an online principle components analysis to reduce the dimension of the features with a very low computation cost. Then, a stochastic approximation algorithm is deployed to obtain a real-time calculation of the nonparametric classifier. The proposed methods are evaluated and compared to some commonly used machine learning algorithms for real-time fetal well-being monitoring. The study revealed that, in terms of accuracy, the offline (or Batch), as well as, the online classifiers are good competitors to the random forest algorithm. Moreover, we show that the online classifier gives the best trade-off accuracy/computation cost compared to the offline classifier.

A cornerstone of geometric reconstruction, rotation averaging seeks the set of absolute rotations that optimally explains a set of measured relative orientations between them. In addition to being an integral part of bundle adjustment and structure-from-motion, the problem of synchronizing rotations also finds applications in visual simultaneous localization and mapping, where it is used as an initialization for iterative solvers, and camera network calibration. Nevertheless, this optimization problem is both non-convex and high-dimensional. In this paper, we address it from a maximum likelihood estimation standpoint and make a twofold contribution. Firstly, we set forth a novel primal-dual method, motivated by the widely accepted spectral initialization. Further, we characterize stationary points of rotation averaging in cycle graphs topologies and contextualize this result within spectral graph theory. We benchmark the proposed method in multiple settings and certify our solution via duality theory, achieving a significant gain in precision and performance.

Generative models based on flow matching have attracted significant attention for their simplicity and superior performance in high-resolution image synthesis. By leveraging the instantaneous change-of-variables formula, one can directly compute image likelihoods from a learned flow, making them enticing candidates as priors for downstream tasks such as inverse problems. In particular, a natural approach would be to incorporate such image probabilities in a maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) estimation problem. A major obstacle, however, lies in the slow computation of the log-likelihood, as it requires backpropagating through an ODE solver, which can be prohibitively slow for high-dimensional problems. In this work, we propose an iterative algorithm to approximate the MAP estimator efficiently to solve a variety of linear inverse problems. Our algorithm is mathematically justified by the observation that the MAP objective can be approximated by a sum of $N$ ``local MAP'' objectives, where $N$ is the number of function evaluations. By leveraging Tweedie's formula, we show that we can perform gradient steps to sequentially optimize these objectives. We validate our approach for various linear inverse problems, such as super-resolution, deblurring, inpainting, and compressed sensing, and demonstrate that we can outperform other methods based on flow matching.