Effective clustering of biomedical data is crucial in precision medicine, enabling accurate stratifiction of patients or samples. However, the growth in availability of high-dimensional categorical data, including `omics data, necessitates computationally efficient clustering algorithms. We present VICatMix, a variational Bayesian finite mixture model designed for the clustering of categorical data. The use of variational inference (VI) in its training allows the model to outperform competitors in term of efficiency, while maintaining high accuracy. VICatMix furthermore performs variable selection, enhancing its performance on high-dimensional, noisy data. The proposed model incorporates summarisation and model averaging to mitigate poor local optima in VI, allowing for improved estimation of the true number of clusters simultaneously with feature saliency. We demonstrate the performance of VICatMix with both simulated and real-world data, including applications to datasets from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), showing its use in cancer subtyping and driver gene discovery. We demonstrate VICatMix's utility in integrative cluster analysis with different `omics datasets, enabling the discovery of novel subtypes. \textbf{Availability:} VICatMix is freely available as an R package, incorporating C++ for faster computation, at \url{https://github.com/j-ackierao/VICatMix}.

Causal discovery aims to uncover cause-and-effect relationships encoded in causal graphs by leveraging observational, interventional data, or their combination. The majority of existing causal discovery methods are developed assuming infinite interventional data. We focus on data interventional efficiency and formalize causal discovery from the perspective of online learning, inspired by pure exploration in bandit problems. A graph separating system, consisting of interventions that cut every edge of the graph at least once, is sufficient for learning causal graphs when infinite interventional data is available, even in the worst case. We propose a track-and-stop causal discovery algorithm that adaptively selects interventions from the graph separating system via allocation matching and learns the causal graph based on sampling history. Given any desired confidence value, the algorithm determines a termination condition and runs until it is met. We analyze the algorithm to establish a problem-dependent upper bound on the expected number of required interventional samples. Our proposed algorithm outperforms existing methods in simulations across various randomly generated causal graphs. It achieves higher accuracy, measured by the structural hamming distance (SHD) between the learned causal graph and the ground truth, with significantly fewer samples.

The large-scale pre-trained neural network has achieved notable success in enhancing performance for downstream tasks. Another promising approach for generalization is Bayesian Neural Network (BNN), which integrates Bayesian methods into neural network architectures, offering advantages such as Bayesian Model averaging (BMA) and uncertainty quantification. Despite these benefits, transfer learning for BNNs has not been widely investigated and shows limited improvement. We hypothesize that this issue arises from the inability to find flat minima, which is crucial for generalization performance. To address this, we evaluate the sharpness of BNNs in various settings, revealing their insufficiency in seeking flat minima and the influence of flatness on BMA performance. Therefore, we propose Sharpness-aware Bayesian Model Averaging (SA-BMA), a Bayesian-fitting flat posterior seeking optimizer integrated with Bayesian transfer learning. SA-BMA calculates the divergence between posteriors in the parameter space, aligning with the nature of BNNs, and serves as a generalized version of existing sharpness-aware optimizers. We validate that SA-BMA improves generalization performance in few-shot classification and distribution shift scenarios by ensuring flatness.

With the growing use of voice-activated systems and speech recognition technologies, the danger of backdoor attacks on audio data has grown significantly. This research looks at a specific type of attack, known as a Stochastic investment-based backdoor attack (MarketBack), in which adversaries strategically manipulate the stylistic properties of audio to fool speech recognition systems. The security and integrity of machine learning models are seriously threatened by backdoor attacks, in order to maintain the reliability of audio applications and systems, the identification of such attacks becomes crucial in the context of audio data. Experimental results demonstrated that MarketBack is feasible to achieve an average attack success rate close to 100% in seven victim models when poisoning less than 1% of the training data.

Building prediction intervals for time series forecasting problems presents a complex challenge, particularly when relying solely on point predictors, a common scenario for practitioners in the industry. While research has primarily focused on achieving increasingly efficient valid intervals, we argue that, when evaluating a set of intervals, traditional measures alone are insufficient. There are additional crucial characteristics: the intervals must vary in length, with this variation directly linked to the difficulty of the prediction, and the coverage of the interval must remain independent of the difficulty of the prediction for practical utility. We propose the Heteroscedastic Quantile Regression (HQR) model and the Width-Adaptive Conformal Inference (WACI) method, providing theoretical coverage guarantees, to overcome those issues, respectively. The methodologies are evaluated in the context of Electricity Price Forecasting and Wind Power Forecasting, representing complex scenarios in time series forecasting. The results demonstrate that HQR and WACI not only improve or achieve typical measures of validity and efficiency but also successfully fulfil the commonly ignored mentioned characteristics.

In this paper, we develop a decision support system for the hierarchical text classification. We consider text collections with a fixed hierarchical structure of topics given by experts in the form of a tree. The system sorts the topics by relevance to a given document. The experts choose one of the most relevant topics to finish the classification. We propose a weighted hierarchical similarity function to calculate topic relevance. The function calculates the similarity of a document and a tree branch. The weights in this function determine word importance. We use the entropy of words to estimate the weights. The proposed hierarchical similarity function formulates a joint hierarchical thematic classification probability model of the document topics, parameters, and hyperparameters. The variational Bayesian inference gives a closed-form EM algorithm. The EM algorithm estimates the parameters and calculates the probability of a topic for a given document. Compared to hierarchical multiclass SVM, hierarchical PLSA with adaptive regularization, and hierarchical naive Bayes, the weighted hierarchical similarity function has better improvement in ranking accuracy in an abstract collection of a major conference EURO and a website collection of industrial companies.

In recent years there has been significant interest in the effect of different types of adversarial perturbations in data classification problems. Many of these models incorporate the adversarial power, which is an important parameter with an associated trade-off between accuracy and robustness. This work considers a general framework for adversarially-perturbed classification problems, in a large data or population-level limit. In such a regime, we demonstrate that as adversarial strength goes to zero that optimal classifiers converge to the Bayes classifier in the Hausdorff distance. This significantly strengthens previous results, which generally focus on $L^1$-type convergence. The main argument relies upon direct geometric comparisons and is inspired by techniques from geometric measure theory.

Music recommender systems are crucial in music streaming platforms, providing users with music they would enjoy. Recent studies have shown that user emotions can affect users' music mood preferences. However, existing emotion-aware music recommender systems (EMRSs) explicitly or implicitly assume that users' actual emotional states expressed by an identical emotion word are homogeneous. They also assume that users' music mood preferences are homogeneous under an identical emotional state. In this article, we propose four types of heterogeneity that an EMRS should consider: emotion heterogeneity across users, emotion heterogeneity within a user, music mood preference heterogeneity across users, and music mood preference heterogeneity within a user. We further propose a Heterogeneity-aware Deep Bayesian Network (HDBN) to model these assumptions. The HDBN mimics a user's decision process to choose music with four components: personalized prior user emotion distribution modeling, posterior user emotion distribution modeling, user grouping, and Bayesian neural network-based music mood preference prediction. We constructed a large-scale dataset called EmoMusicLJ to validate our method. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms baseline approaches on widely used HR and NDCG recommendation metrics. Ablation experiments and case studies further validate the effectiveness of our HDBN. The source code is available at https://github.com/jingrk/HDBN.

Extracting time-varying latent variables from computational cognitive models is a key step in model-based neural analysis, which aims to understand the neural correlates of cognitive processes. However, existing methods only allow researchers to infer latent variables that explain subjects' behavior in a relatively small class of cognitive models. For example, a broad class of relevant cognitive models with analytically intractable likelihood is currently out of reach from standard techniques, based on Maximum a Posteriori parameter estimation. Here, we present an approach that extends neural Bayes estimation to learn a direct mapping between experimental data and the targeted latent variable space using recurrent neural networks and simulated datasets. We show that our approach achieves competitive performance in inferring latent variable sequences in both tractable and intractable models. Furthermore, the approach is generalizable across different computational models and is adaptable for both continuous and discrete latent spaces. We then demonstrate its applicability in real world datasets. Our work underscores that combining recurrent neural networks and simulation-based inference to identify latent variable sequences can enable researchers to access a wider class of cognitive models for model-based neural analyses, and thus test a broader set of theories.

Stress and material deformation field predictions are among the most important tasks in computational mechanics. These predictions are typically made by solving the governing equations of continuum mechanics using finite element analysis, which can become computationally prohibitive considering complex microstructures and material behaviors. Machine learning (ML) methods offer potentially cost effective surrogates for these applications. However, existing ML surrogates are either limited to low-dimensional problems and/or do not provide uncertainty estimates in the predictions. This work proposes an ML surrogate framework for stress field prediction and uncertainty quantification for diverse materials microstructures. A modified Bayesian U-net architecture is employed to provide a data-driven image-to-image mapping from initial microstructure to stress field with prediction (epistemic) uncertainty estimates. The Bayesian posterior distributions for the U-net parameters are estimated using three state-of-the-art inference algorithms: the posterior sampling-based Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method and two variational approaches, the Monte-Carlo Dropout method and the Bayes by Backprop algorithm. A systematic comparison of the predictive accuracy and uncertainty estimates for these methods is performed for a fiber reinforced composite material and polycrystalline microstructure application. It is shown that the proposed methods yield predictions of high accuracy compared to the FEA solution, while uncertainty estimates depend on the inference approach. Generally, the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and Bayes by Backprop methods provide consistent uncertainty estimates. Uncertainty estimates from Monte Carlo Dropout, on the other hand, are more difficult to interpret and depend strongly on the method's design.