In modern and personalised education, there is a growing interest in developing learners' competencies and accurately assessing them. In a previous work, we proposed a procedure for deriving a learner model for automatic skill assessment from a task-specific competence rubric, thus simplifying the implementation of automated assessment tools. The previous approach, however, suffered two main limitations: (i) the ordering between competencies defined by the assessment rubric was only indirectly modelled; (ii) supplementary skills, not under assessment but necessary for accomplishing the task, were not included in the model. In this work, we address issue (i) by introducing dummy observed nodes, strictly enforcing the skills ordering without changing the network's structure. In contrast, for point (ii), we design a network with two layers of gates, one performing disjunctive operations by noisy-OR gates and the other conjunctive operations through logical ANDs. Such changes improve the model outcomes' coherence and the modelling tool's flexibility without compromising the model's compact parametrisation, interpretability and simple experts' elicitation. We used this approach to develop a learner model for Computational Thinking (CT) skills assessment. The CT-cube skills assessment framework and the Cross Array Task (CAT) are used to exemplify it and demonstrate its feasibility.

Estimating treatment effects from observational data is of central interest across numerous application domains. Individual treatment effect offers the most granular measure of treatment effect on an individual level, and is the most useful to facilitate personalized care. However, its estimation and inference remain underdeveloped due to several challenges. In this article, we propose a novel conformal diffusion model-based approach that addresses those intricate challenges. We integrate the highly flexible diffusion modeling, the model-free statistical inference paradigm of conformal inference, along with propensity score and covariate local approximation that tackle distributional shifts. We unbiasedly estimate the distributions of potential outcomes for individual treatment effect, construct an informative confidence interval, and establish rigorous theoretical guarantees. We demonstrate the competitive performance of the proposed method over existing solutions through extensive numerical studies.

We present two new approaches for point prediction with streaming data. One is based on the Count-Min sketch (CMS) and the other is based on Gaussian process priors with a random bias. These methods are intended for the most general predictive problems where no true model can be usefully formulated for the data stream. In statistical contexts, this is often called the $\mathcal{M}$-open problem class. Under the assumption that the data consists of i.i.d samples from a fixed distribution function $F$, we show that the CMS-based estimates of the distribution function are consistent. We compare our new methods with two established predictors in terms of cumulative $L^1$ error. One is based on the Shtarkov solution (often called the normalized maximum likelihood) in the normal experts setting and the other is based on Dirichlet process priors. These comparisons are for two cases. The first is one-pass meaning that the updating of the predictors is done using the fact that the CMS is a sketch. For predictors that are not one-pass, we use streaming $K$-means to give a representative subset of fixed size that can be updated as data accumulate. Preliminary computational work suggests that the one-pass median version of the CMS method is rarely outperformed by the other methods for sufficiently complex data. We also find that predictors based on Gaussian process priors with random biases perform well. The Shtarkov predictors we use here did not perform as well probably because we were only using the simplest example. The other predictors seemed to perform well mainly when the data did not look like they came from an M-open data generator.

The upcoming high-luminosity runs of the LHC will push the quantitative frontier of data taking to over 25-times its current rates. To ensure precision gains from such high statistics, this increase in experimental data needs to be met by an equal amount of simulation. The required computational power is predicted to outgrow the increase in budget in the coming years [1, 2]. One solution to this predicament is the augmentation of the expensive, Monte Carlo-based, simulation chain with generative machine learning. A special focus is often put on the costly detector simulation [3, 4]. This approach is only viable under the assumption that the generated data is not statistically limited to the size of the simulated training data. Previous studies have shown, for both toy data [5] and calorimeter images [6], that samples generated with generative neural networks can surpass the training statistics due to powerful interpolation abilities of the network in data space. These studies rely on comparing a distance measure between histograms of generated data and true hold-out data to the distance between smaller, statistically limited sets of Monte Carlo data and the hold-out set. The phenomenon of a generative model surpassing the precision of its training set is also known as amplification.

Bayesian estimation is a vital tool in robotics as it allows systems to update the belief of the robot state using incomplete information from noisy sensors. To render the state estimation problem tractable, many systems assume that the motion and measurement noise, as well as the state distribution, are all unimodal and Gaussian. However, there are numerous scenarios and systems that do not comply with these assumptions. Existing non-parametric filters that are used to model multimodal distributions have drawbacks that limit their ability to represent a diverse set of distributions. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to nonparametric Bayesian filtering to cope with multimodal distributions using harmonic exponential distributions. This approach leverages two key insights of harmonic exponential distributions: a) the product of two distributions can be expressed as the element-wise addition of their log-likelihood Fourier coefficients, and b) the convolution of two distributions can be efficiently computed as the tensor product of their Fourier coefficients. These observations enable the development of an efficient and exact solution to the Bayes filter up to the band limit of a Fourier transform. We demonstrate our filter's superior performance compared with established nonparametric filtering methods across a range of simulated and real-world localization tasks.

Recent advancements in machine learning have accelerated its widespread adoption across various real-world applications. However, in safety-critical domains, the deployment of machine learning models is riddled with challenges due to their complexity, lack of interpretability, and absence of formal guarantees regarding their behavior. In this paper, we introduce a verification framework tailored for Bayesian networks, designed to address these drawbacks. Our framework comprises two key components: (1) a two-step compilation and encoding scheme that translates Bayesian networks into Boolean logic literals, and (2) formal verification queries that leverage these literals to verify various properties encoded as constraints. Specifically, we introduce two verification queries: if-then rules (ITR) and feature monotonicity (FMO). We benchmark the efficiency of our verification scheme and demonstrate its practical utility in real-world scenarios.

AI has been dealing with uncertainty to have highly accurate results. This becomes even worse with reasonably small data sets or a variation in the data sets. This has far-reaching effects on decision-making, forecasting and learning mechanisms. This study seeks to unpack the nature of uncertainty that exists within AI by drawing ideas from established works, the latest developments and practical applications and provide a novel total uncertainty definition in AI. From inception theories up to current methodologies, this paper provides an integrated view of dealing with better total uncertainty as well as complexities of uncertainty in AI that help us understand its meaning and value across different domains.

We introduce a novel deep operator network (DeepONet) framework that incorporates generalised variational inference (GVI) using R\'enyi's $\alpha$-divergence to learn complex operators while quantifying uncertainty. By incorporating Bayesian neural networks as the building blocks for the branch and trunk networks, our framework endows DeepONet with uncertainty quantification. The use of R\'enyi's $\alpha$-divergence, instead of the Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD), commonly used in standard variational inference, mitigates issues related to prior misspecification that are prevalent in Variational Bayesian DeepONets. This approach offers enhanced flexibility and robustness. We demonstrate that modifying the variational objective function yields superior results in terms of minimising the mean squared error and improving the negative log-likelihood on the test set. Our framework's efficacy is validated across various mechanical systems, where it outperforms both deterministic and standard KLD-based VI DeepONets in predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification. The hyperparameter $\alpha$, which controls the degree of robustness, can be tuned to optimise performance for specific problems. We apply this approach to a range of mechanics problems, including gravity pendulum, advection-diffusion, and diffusion-reaction systems. Our findings underscore the potential of $\alpha$-VI DeepONet to advance the field of data-driven operator learning and its applications in engineering and scientific domains.

Data for several applications in diverse fields can be represented as multiple matrices that are linked across rows or columns. This is particularly common in molecular biomedical research, in which multiple molecular "omics" technologies may capture different feature sets (e.g., corresponding to rows in a matrix) and/or different sample populations (corresponding to columns). This has motivated a large body of work on integrative matrix factorization approaches that identify and decompose low-dimensional signal that is shared across multiple matrices or specific to a given matrix. We propose an empirical variational Bayesian approach to this problem that has several advantages over existing techniques, including the flexibility to accommodate shared signal over any number of row or column sets (i.e., bidimensional integration), an intuitive model-based objective function that yields appropriate shrinkage for the inferred signals, and a relatively efficient estimation algorithm with no tuning parameters. A general result establishes conditions for the uniqueness of the underlying decomposition for a broad family of methods that includes the proposed approach. For scenarios with missing data, we describe an associated iterative imputation approach that is novel for the single-matrix context and a powerful approach for "blockwise" imputation (in which an entire row or column is missing) in various linked matrix contexts. Extensive simulations show that the method performs very well under different scenarios with respect to recovering underlying low-rank signal, accurately decomposing shared and specific signals, and accurately imputing missing data. The approach is applied to gene expression and miRNA data from breast cancer tissue and normal breast tissue, for which it gives an informative decomposition of variation and outperforms alternative strategies for missing data imputation.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used in non-parametric Bayesian modeling, and play an important role in various statistical and machine learning applications. In a variety tasks of uncertainty quantification, generating random sample paths of GPs is of interest. As GP sampling requires generating high-dimensional Gaussian random vectors, it is computationally challenging if a direct method, such as the Cholesky decomposition, is used. In this paper, we propose a scalable algorithm for sampling random realizations of the prior and posterior of GP models. The proposed algorithm leverages inducing points approximation with sparse grids, as well as additive Schwarz preconditioners, which reduce computational complexity, and ensure fast convergence. We demonstrate the efficacy and accuracy of the proposed method through a series of experiments and comparisons with other recent works.