How do people understand and evaluate claims about others' beliefs, even though these beliefs cannot be directly observed? In this paper, we introduce a cognitive model of epistemic language interpretation, grounded in Bayesian inferences about other agents' goals, beliefs, and intentions: a language-augmented Bayesian theory-of-mind (LaBToM). By translating natural language into an epistemic ``language-of-thought'', then evaluating these translations against the inferences produced by inverting a probabilistic generative model of rational action and perception, LaBToM captures graded plausibility judgments about epistemic claims. We validate our model in an experiment where participants watch an agent navigate a maze to find keys hidden in boxes needed to reach their goal, then rate sentences about the agent's beliefs. In contrast with multimodal LLMs (GPT-4o, Gemini Pro) and ablated models, our model correlates highly with human judgments for a wide range of expressions, including modal language, uncertainty expressions, knowledge claims, likelihood comparisons, and attributions of false belief.

Advanced probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) use hybrid inference systems to combine symbolic exact inference and Monte Carlo methods to improve inference performance. These systems use heuristics to partition random variables within the program into variables that are encoded symbolically and variables that are encoded with sampled values, and the heuristics are not necessarily aligned with the performance evaluation metrics used by the developer. In this work, we present inference plans, a programming interface that enables developers to control the partitioning of random variables during hybrid particle filtering. We further present Siren, a new PPL that enables developers to use annotations to specify inference plans the inference system must implement. To assist developers with statically reasoning about whether an inference plan can be implemented, we present an abstract-interpretation-based static analysis for Siren for determining inference plan satisfiability. We prove the analysis is sound with respect to Siren's semantics. Our evaluation applies inference plans to three different hybrid particle filtering algorithms on a suite of benchmarks and shows that the control provided by inference plans enables speed ups of 1.76x on average and up to 206x to reach target accuracy, compared to the inference plans implemented by default heuristics; the results also show that inference plans improve accuracy by 1.83x on average and up to 595x with less or equal runtime, compared to the default inference plans. We further show that the static analysis is precise in practice, identifying all satisfiable inference plans in 27 out of the 33 benchmark-algorithm combinations.

We investigate the in-distribution generalization of machine learning algorithms. We depart from traditional complexity-based approaches by analyzing information-theoretic bounds that quantify the dependence between a learning algorithm and the training data. We consider two categories of generalization guarantees: 1) Guarantees in expectation: These bounds measure performance in the average case. Here, the dependence between the algorithm and the data is often captured by information measures. While these measures offer an intuitive interpretation, they overlook the geometry of the algorithm's hypothesis class. Here, we introduce bounds using the Wasserstein distance to incorporate geometry, and a structured, systematic method to derive bounds capturing the dependence between the algorithm and an individual datum, and between the algorithm and subsets of the training data. 2) PAC-Bayesian guarantees: These bounds measure the performance level with high probability. Here, the dependence between the algorithm and the data is often measured by the relative entropy. We establish connections between the Seeger--Langford and Catoni's bounds, revealing that the former is optimized by the Gibbs posterior. We introduce novel, tighter bounds for various types of loss functions. To achieve this, we introduce a new technique to optimize parameters in probabilistic statements. To study the limitations of these approaches, we present a counter-example where most of the information-theoretic bounds fail while traditional approaches do not. Finally, we explore the relationship between privacy and generalization. We show that algorithms with a bounded maximal leakage generalize. For discrete data, we derive new bounds for differentially private algorithms that guarantee generalization even with a constant privacy parameter, which is in contrast to previous bounds in the literature.

There is a wide variety of methods, tools and resources for processing text in the English language. However this is not the case for the Greek language even though it has a long documented history spanning at least 3,400 years of written records (including texts in syllabic script), and 28 centuries (Archaic period - new) of written text with alphabet [1, 2]. The over 2500 years literary tradition of Greek is also notable. To aid those that are interested in using, developing or advancing the techniques for Greek processing, in this paper we survey related works and resources organized in categories. We hope this collection and categorization of works to be useful for students and researchers interested in NLP tasks, Information Retrieval and Knowledge Management for the Greek language.

Institute for Solid State Physics, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8581, Japan (Dated: Augest 20, 2024) Based on the tensor tree network with the Born machine framework, we propose a general method for constructing a generative model by expressing the target distribution function as the quantum wave function amplitude represented by a tensor tree. The key idea is dynamically optimizing the tree structure that minimizes the bond mutual information. The proposed method offers enhanced performance and uncovers hidden relational structures in the target data. We illustrate potential practical applications with four examples: (i) random patterns, (ii) QMNIST hand-written digits, (iii) Bayesian networks, and (iv) the stock price fluctuation pattern in S&P500. In (i) and (ii), strongly correlated variables were concentrated near the center of the network; in (iii), the causality pattern was identified; and, in (iv), a structure corresponding to the eleven sectors emerged. Generative models thrive on the adaptability of architectures the performance of resulting generative models suggest tailored to the data's characteristics. However, is often chosen manually, such as using RNNs for how we can choose the best network structure for a time series and sequential data.

Online rating systems are often used in numerous web or mobile applications, e.g., Amazon and TripAdvisor, to assess the ground-truth quality of products. Due to herding effects, the aggregation of historical ratings (or historical collective opinion) can significantly influence subsequent ratings, leading to misleading and erroneous assessments. We study how to manage product ratings via rating aggregation rules and shortlisted representative reviews, for the purpose of correcting the assessment error. We first develop a mathematical model to characterize important factors of herding effects in product ratings. We then identify sufficient conditions (via the stochastic approximation theory), under which the historical collective opinion converges to the ground-truth collective opinion of the whole user population. These conditions identify a class of rating aggregation rules and review selection mechanisms that can reveal the ground-truth product quality. We also quantify the speed of convergence (via the martingale theory), which reflects the efficiency of rating aggregation rules and review selection mechanisms. We prove that the herding effects slow down the speed of convergence while an accurate review selection mechanism can speed it up. We also study the speed of convergence numerically and reveal trade-offs in selecting rating aggregation rules and review selection mechanisms. To show the utility of our framework, we design a maximum likelihood algorithm to infer model parameters from ratings, and conduct experiments on rating datasets from Amazon and TripAdvisor. We show that proper recency aware rating aggregation rules can improve the speed of convergence in Amazon and TripAdvisor by 41% and 62% respectively.

An obstetric goal for a laboring mother is to achieve a vaginal delivery as it reduces the risks inherent in major abdominal surgery (i.e., a Cesarean section). Various medical interventions may be used by a physician to increase the likelihood of this occurring while minimizing maternal and fetal morbidity. However, patients with prelabor rupture of membranes (PROM) have only two commonly used options for cervical ripening, Pitocin and misoprostol. Little research exists on the benefits/risks for these two key drugs for PROM patients. A major limitation with most induction-of-labor related research is the inability to account for differences in \textit{Bishop scores} that are commonly used in obstetrical practice to determine the next induction agent offered to the patient. This creates a confounding factor, which biases the results, but has not been realized in the literature. In this work, we use a Bayesian model of the relationships between the relevant factors, informed by expert physicians, to separate the confounding variable from its actual impact. In doing so, we provide strong evidence that pitocin and buccal misoprostol are equally effective and safe; thus, physicians have more choice in clinical care than previously realized. This is particularly important for developing countries where neither medication may be readily available, and prior guidelines may create an artificial barrier to needed medication.

Causal Bayesian networks (CBN) are popular graphical probabilistic models that encode causal relations among variables. Learning their graphical structure from observational data has received a lot of attention in the literature. When there exists no latent (unobserved) confounder, i.e., no unobserved direct common cause of some observed variables, learning algorithms can be divided essentially into two classes: constraint-based and score-based approaches. The latter are often thought to be more robust than the former and to produce better results. However, to the best of our knowledge, when variables are discrete, no score-based algorithm is capable of dealing with latent confounders. This paper introduces the first fully score-based structure learning algorithm searching the space of DAGs (directed acyclic graphs) that is capable of identifying the presence of some latent confounders. It is justified mathematically and experiments highlight its effectiveness.

Labeling visual data is expensive and time-consuming. Crowdsourcing systems promise to enable highly parallelizable annotations through the participation of monetarily or otherwise motivated workers, but even this approach has its limits. The solution: replace manual work with machine work. But how reliable are machine annotators? Sacrificing data quality for high throughput cannot be acceptable, especially in safety-critical applications such as autonomous driving. In this paper, we present a framework that enables quality checking of visual data at large scales without sacrificing the reliability of the results. We ask annotators simple questions with discrete answers, which can be highly automated using a convolutional neural network trained to predict crowd responses. Unlike the methods of previous work, which aim to directly predict soft labels to address human uncertainty, we use per-task posterior distributions over soft labels as our training objective, leveraging a Dirichlet prior for analytical accessibility. We demonstrate our approach on two challenging real-world automotive datasets, showing that our model can fully automate a significant portion of tasks, saving costs in the high double-digit percentage range. Our model reliably predicts human uncertainty, allowing for more accurate inspection and filtering of difficult examples. Additionally, we show that the posterior distributions over soft labels predicted by our model can be used as priors in further inference processes, reducing the need for numerous human labelers to approximate true soft labels accurately. This results in further cost reductions and more efficient use of human resources in the annotation process.

In many real-world continuous action domains, human agents must decide which actions to attempt and then execute those actions to the best of their ability. However, humans cannot execute actions without error. Human performance in these domains can potentially be improved by the use of AI to aid in decision-making. One requirement for an AI to correctly reason about what actions a human agent should attempt is a correct model of that human's execution error, or skill. Recent work has demonstrated successful techniques for estimating this execution error with various types of agents across different domains. However, this previous work made several assumptions that limit the application of these ideas to real-world settings. First, previous work assumed that the error distributions were symmetric normal, which meant that only a single parameter had to be estimated. In reality, agent error distributions might exhibit arbitrary shapes and should be modeled more flexibly. Second, it was assumed that the execution error of the agent remained constant across all observations. Especially for human agents, execution error changes over time, and this must be taken into account to obtain effective estimates. To overcome both of these shortcomings, we propose a novel particle-filter-based estimator for this problem. After describing the details of this approximate estimator, we experimentally explore various design decisions and compare performance with previous skill estimators in a variety of settings to showcase the improvements. The outcome is an estimator capable of generating more realistic, time-varying execution skill estimates of agents, which can then be used to assist agents in making better decisions and improve their overall performance.