Regression is a fundamental prediction task common in data-centric engineering applications that involves learning mappings between continuous variables. In many engineering applications (e.g.\ structural health monitoring), feature-label pairs used to learn such mappings are of limited availability which hinders the effectiveness of traditional supervised machine learning approaches. The current paper proposes a methodology for overcoming the issue of data scarcity by combining active learning with hierarchical Bayesian modelling. Active learning is an approach for preferentially acquiring feature-label pairs in a resource-efficient manner. In particular, the current work adopts a risk-informed approach that leverages contextual information associated with regression-based engineering decision-making tasks (e.g.\ inspection and maintenance). Hierarchical Bayesian modelling allow multiple related regression tasks to be learned over a population, capturing local and global effects. The information sharing facilitated by this modelling approach means that information acquired for one engineering system can improve predictive performance across the population. The proposed methodology is demonstrated using an experimental case study. Specifically, multiple regressions are performed over a population of machining tools, where the quantity of interest is the surface roughness of the workpieces. An inspection and maintenance decision process is defined using these regression tasks which is in turn used to construct the active-learning algorithm. The novel methodology proposed is benchmarked against an uninformed approach to label acquisition and independent modelling of the regression tasks. It is shown that the proposed approach has superior performance in terms of expected cost -- maintaining predictive performance while reducing the number of inspections required.

Value at Risk (VaR) and stress testing are two of the most widely used approaches in portfolio risk management to estimate potential market value losses under adverse market moves. VaR quantifies potential loss in value over a specified horizon (such as one day or ten days) at a desired confidence level (such as 95'th percentile). In scenario design and stress testing, the goal is to construct extreme market scenarios such as those involving severe recession or a specific event of concern (such as a rapid increase in rates or a geopolitical event), and quantify potential impact of such scenarios on the portfolio. The goal of this paper is to propose an approach for incorporating prevailing market conditions in stress scenario design and estimation of VaR so that they provide more accurate and realistic insights about portfolio risk over the near term. The proposed approach is based on historical data where historical observations of market changes are given more weight if a certain period in history is "more similar" to the prevailing market conditions. Clusters of market conditions are identified using a Machine Learning approach called Variational Inference (VI) where for each cluster future changes in portfolio value are similar. VI based algorithm uses optimization techniques to obtain analytical approximations of the posterior probability density of cluster assignments (market regimes) and probabilities of different outcomes for changes in portfolio value. Covid related volatile period around the year 2020 is used to illustrate the performance of the proposed approach and in particular show how VaR and stress scenarios adapt quickly to changing market conditions. Another advantage of the proposed approach is that classification of market conditions into clusters can provide useful insights about portfolio performance under different market conditions.

Inverse Constrained Reinforcement Learning (ICRL) is the task of inferring the implicit constraints followed by expert agents from their demonstration data. As an emerging research topic, ICRL has received considerable attention in recent years. This article presents a categorical survey of the latest advances in ICRL. It serves as a comprehensive reference for machine learning researchers and practitioners, as well as starters seeking to comprehend the definitions, advancements, and important challenges in ICRL. We begin by formally defining the problem and outlining the algorithmic framework that facilitates constraint inference across various scenarios. These include deterministic or stochastic environments, environments with limited demonstrations, and multiple agents. For each context, we illustrate the critical challenges and introduce a series of fundamental methods to tackle these issues. This survey encompasses discrete, virtual, and realistic environments for evaluating ICRL agents. We also delve into the most pertinent applications of ICRL, such as autonomous driving, robot control, and sports analytics. To stimulate continuing research, we conclude the survey with a discussion of key unresolved questions in ICRL that can effectively foster a bridge between theoretical understanding and practical industrial applications.

Uncertainty quantification plays a key role in the development of autonomous systems, decision-making, and tracking over wireless sensor networks (WSNs). However, there is a need of providing uncertainty confidence bounds, especially for distributed machine learning-based tracking, dealing with different volumes of data collected by sensors. This paper aims to fill in this gap and proposes a distributed Gaussian process (DGP) approach for point target tracking and derives upper confidence bounds (UCBs) of the state estimates. A unique contribution of this paper includes the derived theoretical guarantees on the proposed approach and its maximum accuracy for tracking with and without clutter measurements. Particularly, the developed approaches with uncertainty bounds are generic and can provide trustworthy solutions with an increased level of reliability. A novel hybrid Bayesian filtering method is proposed to enhance the DGP approach by adopting a Poisson measurement likelihood model. The proposed approaches are validated over a WSN case study, where sensors have limited sensing ranges. Numerical results demonstrate the tracking accuracy and robustness of the proposed approaches. The derived UCBs constitute a tool for trustworthiness evaluation of DGP approaches. The simulation results reveal that the proposed UCBs successfully encompass the true target states with 88% and 42% higher probability in X and Y coordinates, respectively, when compared to the confidence interval-based method.

OLITICS and business are considered traditional spheres of human negotiation. The internet and modern goods/service characterised by several, possibly interrelated, means of communication have extended human negotiation attributes (say price of a product and terms of its delivery); ii) to new domains such as social networks, deliberative democracy, limited negotiation time as no agent can deliberate infinitely; e-commerce, cloud-based applications, [1], [2]. Besides, iii) absence of moderator to coordinate the negotiation, so the automatic bargaining and negotiation, being inevitable agents must reach agreement themselves [11]. in modern cyber-physical-social systems [3], have been established The negotiation has been widely addressed in diverse fields in variety of applications, like network negotiation, ranging from economy and sociology to computer science.

This paper introduces a generalized ps-BART model for the estimation of Average Treatment Effect (ATE) and Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) in continuous treatments, addressing limitations of the Bayesian Causal Forest (BCF) model. The ps-BART model's nonparametric nature allows for flexibility in capturing nonlinear relationships between treatment and outcome variables. Across three distinct sets of Data Generating Processes (DGPs), the ps-BART model consistently outperforms the BCF model, particularly in highly nonlinear settings. The ps-BART model's robustness in uncertainty estimation and accuracy in both point-wise and probabilistic estimation demonstrate its utility for real-world applications. This research fills a crucial gap in causal inference literature, providing a tool better suited for nonlinear treatment-outcome relationships and opening avenues for further exploration in the domain of continuous treatment effect estimation.

Estimating a distribution given access to its unnormalized density is pivotal in Bayesian inference, where the posterior is generally known only up to an unknown normalizing constant. Variational inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are the predominant tools for this task; however, both are often challenging to apply reliably, particularly when the posterior has complex geometry. Here, we introduce Soft Contrastive Variational Inference (SoftCVI), which allows a family of variational objectives to be derived through a contrastive estimation framework. The approach parameterizes a classifier in terms of a variational distribution, reframing the inference task as a contrastive estimation problem aiming to identify a single true posterior sample among a set of samples. Despite this framing, we do not require positive or negative samples, but rather learn by sampling the variational distribution and computing ground truth soft classification labels from the unnormalized posterior itself. The objectives have zero variance gradient when the variational approximation is exact, without the need for specialized gradient estimators. We empirically investigate the performance on a variety of Bayesian inference tasks, using both simple (e.g. normal) and expressive (normalizing flow) variational distributions. We find that SoftCVI can be used to form objectives which are stable to train and mass-covering, frequently outperforming inference with other variational approaches.

Variational inference (VI) is a computationally efficient and scalable methodology for approximate Bayesian inference. It strikes a balance between accuracy of uncertainty quantification and practical tractability. It excels at generative modelling and inversion tasks due to its built-in Bayesian regularisation and flexibility, essential qualities for physics related problems. Deriving the central learning objective for VI must often be tailored to new learning tasks where the nature of the problems dictates the conditional dependence between variables of interest, such as arising in physics problems. In this paper, we provide an accessible and thorough technical introduction to VI for forward and inverse problems, guiding the reader through standard derivations of the VI framework and how it can best be realized through deep learning. We then review and unify recent literature exemplifying the creative flexibility allowed by VI. This paper is designed for a general scientific audience looking to solve physics-based problems with an emphasis on uncertainty quantification.

Wind power is one of the fastest-growing renewable energy sectors and a key pillar for the transition to a carbon-free economy. In 2023, energy from wind accounted for 10.2% of all U.S. utility-scale electricity generation [54]. Being intrinsically weather-driven, wind power injects uncertainty into the balancing of power demand and generation. On the daily operational time scale, quantifying the asset-specific and area-wide uncertainty of renewable generation for the next day is an essential ingredient of grid management. Specifically, grid operators need probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting of wind power in order to appropriately set grid reserves, ensure grid stability, and optimize dispatch of grid resources. Our goal is to develop a statistical framework for short-term wind power generation simulations across space and time. This project is motivated by working with a large dataset of wind generation in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region and is geared to the concrete practical concerns faced by electricity grid operators. We refer to our team's related publications [8, 7, 52, 38] that employ similar simulations for various downstream risk management tasks; other use cases are discussed, among others, in [27, 33, 35, 58].

Binary human choice feedback is widely used in interactive preference learning for its simplicity, but it provides limited information about preference strength. To overcome this limitation, we leverage human response times, which inversely correlate with preference strength, as complementary information. Our work integrates the EZ-diffusion model, which jointly models human choices and response times, into preference-based linear bandits. We introduce a computationally efficient utility estimator that reformulates the utility estimation problem using both choices and response times as a linear regression problem. Theoretical and empirical comparisons with traditional choice-only estimators reveal that for queries with strong preferences ("easy" queries), choices alone provide limited information, while response times offer valuable complementary information about preference strength. As a result, incorporating response times makes easy queries more useful. We demonstrate this advantage in the fixed-budget best-arm identification problem, with simulations based on three real-world datasets, consistently showing accelerated learning when response times are incorporated.