Current efforts to detect nuclear detonations and correctly categorize explosion sources with ground- and space-collected discriminants presents challenges that remain unaddressed by the Event Categorization Matrix (ECM) model. Smaller events (lower yield explosions) often include only sparse observations among few modalities and can therefore lack a complete set of discriminants. The covariance structures can also vary significantly between such observations of event (source-type) categories. Both obstacles are problematic for ``classic'' ECM. Our work addresses this gap and presents a Bayesian update to the previous ECM model, termed B-ECM, which can be trained on partial observations and does not rely on a pooled covariance structure. We further augment ECM with Bayesian Decision Theory so that false negative or false positive rates of an event categorization can be reduced in an intuitive manner. To demonstrate improved categorization rates with B-ECM, we compare an array of B-ECM and classic ECM models with multiple performance metrics that leverage Monte Carlo experiments. We use both synthetic and real data. Our B-ECM models show consistent gains in overall accuracy and a lower false negative rates relative to the classic ECM model. We propose future avenues to improve B-ECM that expand its decision-making and predictive capability.

Addressing multiagent decision problems in AI, especially those involving collaborative or competitive agents acting concurrently in a partially observable and stochastic environment, remains a formidable challenge. While Interactive Dynamic Influence Diagrams~(I-DIDs) have offered a promising decision framework for such problems, they encounter limitations when the subject agent encounters unknown behaviors exhibited by other agents that are not explicitly modeled within the I-DID. This can lead to sub-optimal responses from the subject agent. In this paper, we propose a novel data-driven approach that utilizes an encoder-decoder architecture, particularly a variational autoencoder, to enhance I-DID solutions. By integrating a perplexity-based tree loss function into the optimization algorithm of the variational autoencoder, coupled with the advantages of Zig-Zag One-Hot encoding and decoding, we generate potential behaviors of other agents within the I-DID that are more likely to contain their true behaviors, even from limited interactions. This new approach enables the subject agent to respond more appropriately to unknown behaviors, thus improving its decision quality. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in two well-established problem domains, highlighting its potential for handling multi-agent decision problems with unknown behaviors. This work is the first time of using neural networks based approaches to deal with the I-DID challenge in agent planning and learning problems.

Predicting human intent is challenging yet essential to achieving seamless Human-Robot Collaboration (HRC). Many existing approaches fail to fully exploit the inherent relationships between objects, tasks, and the human model. Current methods for predicting human intent, such as Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) and Conditional Random Fields (CRFs), often lack interpretability due to their failure to account for causal relationships between variables. To address these challenges, in this paper, we developed a novel Bayesian Intention (BI) framework to predict human intent within a multi-modality information framework in HRC scenarios. This framework captures the complexity of intent prediction by modeling the correlations between human behavior conventions and scene data. Our framework leverages these inferred intent predictions to optimize the robot's response in real-time, enabling smoother and more intuitive collaboration. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through a HRC task involving a UR5 robot, highlighting BI's capability for real-time human intent prediction and collision avoidance using a unique dataset we created. Our evaluations show that the multi-modality BI model predicts human intent within 2.69ms, with a 36% increase in precision, a 60% increase in F1 Score, and an 85% increase in accuracy compared to its best baseline method. The results underscore BI's potential to advance real-time human intent prediction and collision avoidance, making a significant contribution to the field of HRC.

This paper offers a roadmap for the development of scalable aligned artificial intelligence (AI) from first principle descriptions of natural intelligence. In brief, a possible path toward scalable aligned AI rests upon enabling artificial agents to learn a good model of the world that includes a good model of our preferences. For this, the main objective is creating agents that learn to represent the world and other agents' world models; a problem that falls under structure learning (a.k.a. causal representation learning). We expose the structure learning and alignment problems with this goal in mind, as well as principles to guide us forward, synthesizing various ideas across mathematics, statistics, and cognitive science. 1) We discuss the essential role of core knowledge, information geometry and model reduction in structure learning, and suggest core structural modules to learn a wide range of naturalistic worlds. 2) We outline a way toward aligned agents through structure learning and theory of mind. As an illustrative example, we mathematically sketch Asimov's Laws of Robotics, which prescribe agents to act cautiously to minimize the ill-being of other agents. We supplement this example by proposing refined approaches to alignment. These observations may guide the development of artificial intelligence in helping to scale existing -- or design new -- aligned structure learning systems.

Diffusion models have become increasingly popular for generative modeling due to their ability to generate high-quality samples. This has unlocked exciting new possibilities for solving inverse problems, especially in image restoration and reconstruction, by treating diffusion models as unsupervised priors. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of methods that utilize pre-trained diffusion models to solve inverse problems without requiring further training. We introduce taxonomies to categorize these methods based on both the problems they address and the techniques they employ. We analyze the connections between different approaches, offering insights into their practical implementation and highlighting important considerations. We further discuss specific challenges and potential solutions associated with using latent diffusion models for inverse problems. This work aims to be a valuable resource for those interested in learning about the intersection of diffusion models and inverse problems.

Although language model scores are often treated as probabilities, their reliability as probability estimators has mainly been studied through calibration, overlooking other aspects. In particular, it is unclear whether language models produce the same value for different ways of assigning joint probabilities to word spans. Our work introduces a novel framework, ConTestS (Consistency Testing over Spans), involving statistical tests to assess score consistency across interchangeable completion and conditioning orders. We conduct experiments on post-release real and synthetic data to eliminate training effects. Our findings reveal that both Masked Language Models (MLMs) and autoregressive models exhibit inconsistent predictions, with autoregressive models showing larger discrepancies. Larger MLMs tend to produce more consistent predictions, while autoregressive models show the opposite trend. Moreover, for both model types, prediction entropies offer insights into the true word span likelihood and therefore can aid in selecting optimal decoding strategies. The inconsistencies revealed by our analysis, as well their connection to prediction entropies and differences between model types, can serve as useful guides for future research on addressing these limitations.

Communication between humans and robots (or virtual agents) is essential for interaction and often inspired by human communication, which uses gestures, facial expressions, gaze direction, and other explicit and implicit means. This work presents an interaction experiment where humans and virtual agents interact through explicit (gestures, manual entries using mouse and keyboard, voice, sound, and information on screen) and implicit (gaze direction, location, facial expressions, and raise of eyebrows) communication to evaluate the effect of mixed explicit-implicit communication against purely explicit communication. Results obtained using Bayesian parameter estimation show that the number of errors and task execution time did not significantly change when mixed explicit and implicit communications were used, and neither the perceived efficiency of the interaction. In contrast, acceptance, sociability, and transparency of the virtual agent increased when using mixed communication modalities (88.3%, 92%, and 92.9% of the effect size posterior distribution of each variable, respectively, were above the upper limit of the region of practical equivalence). This suggests that task-related measures, such as time, number of errors, and perceived efficiency of the interaction, have not been influenced by the communication type in our particular experiment. However, the improvement of subjective measures related to the virtual agent, such as acceptance, sociability, and transparency, suggests that humans are more receptive to mixed explicit and implicit communications.

Neural backdoors represent insidious cybersecurity loopholes that render learning machinery vulnerable to unauthorised manipulations, potentially enabling the weaponisation of artificial intelligence with catastrophic consequences. A backdoor attack involves the clandestine infiltration of a trigger during the learning process, metaphorically analogous to hypnopaedia, where ideas are implanted into a subject's subconscious mind under the state of hypnosis or unconsciousness. When activated by a sensory stimulus, the trigger evokes conditioned reflex that directs a machine to mount a predetermined response. In this study, we propose a cybernetic framework for constant surveillance of backdoors threats, driven by the dynamic nature of untrustworthy data sources. We develop a self-aware unlearning mechanism to autonomously detach a machine's behaviour from the backdoor trigger. Through reverse engineering and statistical inference, we detect deceptive patterns and estimate the likelihood of backdoor infection. We employ model inversion to elicit artificial mental imagery, using stochastic processes to disrupt optimisation pathways and avoid convergent but potentially flawed patterns. This is followed by hypothesis analysis, which estimates the likelihood of each potentially malicious pattern being the true trigger and infers the probability of infection. The primary objective of this study is to maintain a stable state of equilibrium between knowledge fidelity and backdoor vulnerability.

Vision-language foundation models (e.g., CLIP) have shown remarkable performance across a wide range of tasks. However, deploying these models may be unreliable when significant distribution gaps exist between the training and test data. The training-free test-time dynamic adapter (TDA) is a promising approach to address this issue by storing representative test samples to guide the classification of subsequent ones. However, TDA only naively maintains a limited number of reference samples in the cache, leading to severe test-time catastrophic forgetting when the cache is updated by dropping samples. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective method for DistributiOnal Test-time Adaptation (Dota). Instead of naively memorizing representative test samples, Dota continually estimates the distributions of test samples, allowing the model to continually adapt to the deployment environment. The test-time posterior probabilities are then computed using the estimated distributions based on Bayes' theorem for adaptation purposes. To further enhance the adaptability on the uncertain samples, we introduce a new human-in-the-loop paradigm which identifies uncertain samples, collects human-feedback, and incorporates it into the Dota framework. Extensive experiments validate that Dota enables CLIP to continually learn, resulting in a significant improvement compared to current state-of-the-art methods.

Neural simulation-based inference (SBI) describes an emerging family of methods for Bayesian inference with intractable likelihood functions that use neural networks as surrogate models. Here we introduce sbijax, a Python package that implements a wide variety of state-of-the-art methods in neural simulation-based inference using a user-friendly programming interface. sbijax offers high-level functionality to quickly construct SBI estimators, and compute and visualize posterior distributions with only a few lines of code. In addition, the package provides functionality for conventional approximate Bayesian computation, to compute model diagnostics, and to automatically estimate summary statistics. By virtue of being entirely written in JAX, sbijax is extremely computationally efficient, allowing rapid training of neural networks and executing code automatically in parallel on both CPU and GPU.