In this work, we have developed a variational Bayesian inference theory of elasticity, which is accomplished by using a mixed Variational Bayesian inference Finite Element Method (VBI-FEM) that can be used to solve the inverse deformation problems of continua. In the proposed variational Bayesian inference theory of continuum mechanics, the elastic strain energy is used as a prior in a Bayesian inference network, which can intelligently recover the detailed continuum deformation mappings with only given the information on the deformed and undeformed continuum body shapes without knowing the interior deformation and the precise actual boundary conditions, both traction as well as displacement boundary conditions, and the actual material constitutive relation. Moreover, we have implemented the related finite element formulation in a computational probabilistic mechanics framework. To numerically solve mixed variational problem, we developed an operator splitting or staggered algorithm that consists of the finite element (FE) step and the Bayesian learning (BL) step as an analogue of the well-known the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. By solving the mixed probabilistic Galerkin variational problem, we demonstrated that the proposed method is able to inversely predict continuum deformation mappings with strong discontinuity or fracture without knowing the external load conditions. The proposed method provides a robust machine intelligent solution for the long-sought-after inverse problem solution, which has been a major challenge in structure failure forensic pattern analysis in past several decades. The proposed method may become a promising artificial intelligence-based inverse method for solving general partial differential equations.

Within one decade, Deep Learning overtook the dominating solution methods of countless problems of artificial intelligence. ``Deep'' refers to the deep architectures with operations in manifolds of which there are no immediate observations. For these deep architectures some kind of structure is pre-defined -- but what is this structure? With a formal definition for structures of neural networks, neural architecture search problems and solution methods can be formulated under a common framework. Both practical and theoretical questions arise from closing the gap between applied neural architecture search and learning theory. Does structure make a difference or can it be chosen arbitrarily? This work is concerned with deep structures of artificial neural networks and examines automatic construction methods under empirical principles to shed light on to the so called ``black-box models''. Our contributions include a formulation of graph-induced neural networks that is used to pose optimisation problems for neural architecture. We analyse structural properties for different neural network objectives such as correctness, robustness or energy consumption and discuss how structure affects them. Selected automation methods for neural architecture optimisation problems are discussed and empirically analysed. With the insights gained from formalising graph-induced neural networks, analysing structural properties and comparing the applicability of neural architecture search methods qualitatively and quantitatively we advance these methods in two ways. First, new predictive models are presented for replacing computationally expensive evaluation schemes, and second, new generative models for informed sampling during neural architecture search are analysed and discussed.

Equipping graph neural networks with a convolution operation defined in terms of a cellular sheaf offers advantages for learning expressive representations of heterophilic graph data. The most flexible approach to constructing the sheaf is to learn it as part of the network as a function of the node features. However, this leaves the network potentially overly sensitive to the learned sheaf. As a counter-measure, we propose a variational approach to learning cellular sheaves within sheaf neural networks, yielding an architecture we refer to as a Bayesian sheaf neural network. As part of this work, we define a novel family of reparameterizable probability distributions on the rotation group $SO(n)$ using the Cayley transform. We evaluate the Bayesian sheaf neural network on several graph datasets, and show that our Bayesian sheaf models outperform deterministic sheaf models when training data is limited, and are less sensitive to the choice of hyperparameters.

Although existing variational graph autoencoders (VGAEs) have been widely used for modeling and generating graph-structured data, most of them are still not flexible enough to approximate the sparse and skewed latent node representations, especially those of document relational networks (DRNs) with discrete observations. To analyze a collection of interconnected documents, a typical branch of Bayesian models, specifically relational topic models (RTMs), has proven their efficacy in describing both link structures and document contents of DRNs, which motives us to incorporate RTMs with existing VGAEs to alleviate their potential issues when modeling the generation of DRNs. In this paper, moving beyond the sophisticated approximate assumptions of traditional RTMs, we develop a graph Poisson factor analysis (GPFA), which provides analytic conditional posteriors to improve the inference accuracy, and extend GPFA to a multi-stochastic-layer version named graph Poisson gamma belief network (GPGBN) to capture the hierarchical document relationships at multiple semantic levels. Then, taking GPGBN as the decoder, we combine it with various Weibull-based graph inference networks, resulting in two variants of Weibull graph auto-encoder (WGAE), equipped with model inference algorithms. Experimental results demonstrate that our models can extract high-quality hierarchical latent document representations and achieve promising performance on various graph analytic tasks.

This paper considers the challenging tasks of Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) under partial observability, where each agent only sees her own individual observations and actions that reveal incomplete information about the underlying state of system. This paper studies these tasks under the general model of multiplayer general-sum Partially Observable Markov Games (POMGs), which is significantly larger than the standard model of Imperfect Information Extensive-Form Games (IIEFGs). We identify a rich subclass of POMGs---weakly revealing POMGs---in which sample-efficient learning is tractable. In the self-play setting, we prove that a simple algorithm combining optimism and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is sufficient to find approximate Nash equilibria, correlated equilibria, as well as coarse correlated equilibria of weakly revealing POMGs, in a polynomial number of samples when the number of agents is small. In the setting of playing against adversarial opponents, we show that a variant of our optimistic MLE algorithm is capable of achieving sublinear regret when being compared against the optimal maximin policies.

We consider the question of learning the natural parameters of a k parameter \textit{minimal} exponential family from i.i.d. We focus on the setting where the support as well as the natural parameters are appropriately bounded. While the traditional maximum likelihood estimator for this class of exponential family is consistent, asymptotically normal, and asymptotically efficient, evaluating it is computationally hard. In this work, we propose a computationally efficient estimator that is consistent as well as asymptotically normal under mild conditions. We provide finite sample guarantees to achieve an ( \ell_2) error of \alpha in the parameter estimation with sample complexity O(\mathrm{poly}(k/\alpha)) and computational complexity {O}(\mathrm{poly}(k/\alpha)) .

We consider the estimation of sparse graphical models that characterize the dependency structure of high-dimensional tensor-valued data. To facilitate the estimation of the precision matrix corresponding to each way of the tensor, we assume the data follow a tensor normal distribution whose covariance has a Kronecker product structure. The penalized maximum likelihood estimation of this model involves minimizing a non-convex objective function. In spite of the non-convexity of this estimation problem, we prove that an alternating minimization algorithm, which iteratively estimates each sparse precision matrix while fixing the others, attains an estimator with the optimal statistical rate of convergence as well as consistent graph recovery. Notably, such an estimator achieves estimation consistency with only one tensor sample, which is unobserved in previous work.

Many modern data analysis problems involve inferences from streaming data. However, streaming data is not easily amenable to the standard probabilistic modeling approaches, which assume that we condition on finite data. We develop population variational Bayes, a new approach for using Bayesian modeling to analyze streams of data. It approximates a new type of distribution, the population posterior, which combines the notion of a population distribution of the data with Bayesian inference in a probabilistic model. We study our method with latent Dirichlet allocation and Dirichlet process mixtures on several large-scale data sets.

Learning curve extrapolation aims to predict model performance in later epochs of training, based on the performance in earlier epochs.In this work, we argue that, while the inherent uncertainty in the extrapolation of learning curves warrants a Bayesian approach, existing methods are (i) overly restrictive, and/or (ii) computationally expensive. We describe the first application of prior-data fitted neural networks (PFNs) in this context. A PFN is a transformer, pre-trained on data generated from a prior, to perform approximate Bayesian inference in a single forward pass. We propose LC-PFN, a PFN trained to extrapolate 10 million artificial right-censored learning curves generated from a parametric prior proposed in prior art using MCMC. We demonstrate that LC-PFN can approximate the posterior predictive distribution more accurately than MCMC, while being over 10 000 times faster.

Training regimes based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) suffer from known limitations, often leading to poorly generated text sequences that lack of coherence, factualness, and are prone to repetitions. At the root of these limitations is the mismatch between training and inference, i.e. the so-called exposure bias. Another problem lies in considering only the reference text as correct, while in practice several alternative formulations could be as good. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) could mitigate those limitations. Nonetheless, the discrete nature of text has hindered their application to language generation: the approaches proposed so far, based on Reinforcement Learning, have been shown to under-perform MLE.