This book offers a hands-on introduction to building and understanding federated learning (FL) systems. FL enables multiple devices -- such as smartphones, sensors, or local computers -- to collaboratively train machine learning (ML) models, while keeping their data private and local. It is a powerful solution when data cannot or should not be centralized due to privacy, regulatory, or technical reasons. The book is designed for students, engineers, and researchers who want to learn how to design scalable, privacy preserving FL systems. Our main focus is on personalization: enabling each device to train its own model while still benefiting from collaboration with relevant devices. This is achieved by leveraging similarities between (the learning tasks associated with) devices that are encoded by the weighted edges (or links) of a federated learning network (FL network). The key idea is to represent real-world FL systems as networks of devices, where nodes correspond to device and edges represent communication links and data similarities between them. The training of personalized models for these devices can be naturally framed as a distributed optimization problem. This optimization problem is referred to as generalized total variation minimization (GTVMin) and ensures that devices with similar learning tasks learn similar model parameters. Our approach is both mathematically principled and practically motivated. While we introduce some advanced ideas from optimization theory and graph-based learning, we aim to keep the book accessible. Readers are guided through the core ideas step by step, with intuitive explanations.

Causal effect estimation from observational data is fundamental across various applications. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from dozens of specialized methods demands substantial manual effort and domain expertise. We present CausalPFN, a single transformer that amortizes this workflow: trained once on a large library of simulated data-generating processes that satisfy ignorability, it infers causal effects for new observational datasets out-of-the-box. CausalPFN combines ideas from Bayesian causal inference with the large-scale training protocol of prior-fitted networks (PFNs), learning to map raw observations directly to causal effects without any task-specific adjustment. Our approach achieves superior average performance on heterogeneous and average treatment effect estimation benchmarks (IHDP, Lalonde, ACIC). Moreover, it shows competitive performance for real-world policy making on uplift modeling tasks. CausalPFN provides calibrated uncertainty estimates to support reliable decision-making based on Bayesian principles. This ready-to-use model does not require any further training or tuning and takes a step toward automated causal inference (https://github.com/vdblm/CausalPFN).

Mean-field variational inference (MFVI) is a widely used method for approximating high-dimensional probability distributions by product measures. This paper studies the stability properties of the mean-field approximation when the target distribution varies within the class of strongly log-concave measures. We establish dimension-free Lipschitz continuity of the MFVI optimizer with respect to the target distribution, measured in the 2-Wasserstein distance, with Lipschitz constant inversely proportional to the log-concavity parameter. Under additional regularity conditions, we further show that the MFVI optimizer depends differentiably on the target potential and characterize the derivative by a partial differential equation. Methodologically, we follow a novel approach to MFVI via linearized optimal transport: the non-convex MFVI problem is lifted to a convex optimization over transport maps with a fixed base measure, enabling the use of calculus of variations and functional analysis. We discuss several applications of our results to robust Bayesian inference and empirical Bayes, including a quantitative Bernstein--von Mises theorem for MFVI, as well as to distributed stochastic control.

We study the problem of likelihood maximization when the likelihood function is intractable but model simulations are readily available. We propose a sequential, gradient-based optimization method that directly models the Fisher score based on a local score matching technique which uses simulations from a localized region around each parameter iterate. By employing a linear parameterization to the surrogate score model, our technique admits a closed-form, least-squares solution. This approach yields a fast, flexible, and efficient approximation to the Fisher score, effectively smoothing the likelihood objective and mitigating the challenges posed by complex likelihood landscapes. We provide theoretical guarantees for our score estimator, including bounds on the bias introduced by the smoothing. Empirical results on a range of synthetic and real-world problems demonstrate the superior performance of our method compared to existing benchmarks.

Many critical applications, from autonomous scientific discovery to personalized medicine, demand systems that can both strategically acquire the most informative data and instantaneously perform inference based upon it. While amortized methods for Bayesian inference and experimental design offer part of the solution, neither approach is optimal in the most general and challenging task, where new data needs to be collected for instant inference. To tackle this issue, we introduce the Amortized Active Learning and Inference Engine (ALINE), a unified framework for amortized Bayesian inference and active data acquisition. ALINE leverages a transformer architecture trained via reinforcement learning with a reward based on self-estimated information gain provided by its own integrated inference component. This allows it to strategically query informative data points while simultaneously refining its predictions. Moreover, ALINE can selectively direct its querying strategy towards specific subsets of model parameters or designated predictive tasks, optimizing for posterior estimation, data prediction, or a mixture thereof. Empirical results on regression-based active learning, classical Bayesian experimental design benchmarks, and a psychometric model with selectively targeted parameters demonstrate that ALINE delivers both instant and accurate inference along with efficient selection of informative points.

In many settings in science and industry, such as drug discovery and clinical trials, a central challenge is designing experiments under time and budget constraints. Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (BOED) is a paradigm to pick maximally informative designs that has been increasingly applied to such problems. During training, BOED selects inputs according to a pre-determined acquisition criterion. During testing, the model learned during training encounters a naturally occurring distribution of test samples. This leads to an instance of covariate shift, where the train and test samples are drawn from different distributions. Prior work has shown that in the presence of model misspecification, covariate shift amplifies generalization error. Our first contribution is to provide a mathematical decomposition of generalization error that reveals key contributors to generalization error in the presence of model misspecification. We show that generalization error under misspecification is the result of, in addition to covariate shift, a phenomenon we term error (de-)amplification which has not been identified or studied in prior work. Our second contribution is to provide a detailed empirical analysis to show that methods that result in representative and de-amplifying training data increase generalization performance. Our third contribution is to develop a novel acquisition function that mitigates the effects of model misspecification by including a term for representativeness and implicitly inducing de-amplification. Our experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms traditional BOED in the presence of misspecification.

Off-policy learning and evaluation leverage logged bandit feedback datasets, which contain context, action, propensity score, and feedback for each data point. These scenarios face significant challenges due to high variance and poor performance with low-quality propensity scores and heavy-tailed reward distributions. We address these issues by introducing a novel estimator based on the log-sum-exponential (LSE) operator, which outperforms traditional inverse propensity score estimators. Our LSE estimator demonstrates variance reduction and robustness under heavy-tailed conditions. For off-policy evaluation, we derive upper bounds on the estimator's bias and variance. In the off-policy learning scenario, we establish bounds on the regret -- the performance gap between our LSE estimator and the optimal policy -- assuming bounded $(1+ε)$-th moment of weighted reward. Notably, we achieve a convergence rate of $O(n^{-ε/(1+ ε)})$ for the regret bounds, where $ε\in [0,1]$ and $n$ is the size of logged bandit feedback dataset. Theoretical analysis is complemented by comprehensive empirical evaluations in both off-policy learning and evaluation scenarios, confirming the practical advantages of our approach. The code for our estimator is available at the following link: https://github.com/armin-behnamnia/lse-offpolicy-learning.

Although large language models (LLMs) are highly interactive and extendable, current approaches to ensure reliability in deployments remain mostly limited to rejecting outputs with high uncertainty in order to avoid misinformation. This conservative strategy reflects the current lack of tools to systematically distinguish and respond to different sources of uncertainty. In this paper, we advocate for the adoption of Bayesian Modeling of Experiments -- a framework that provides a coherent foundation to reason about uncertainty and clarify the reducibility of uncertainty -- for managing and proactively addressing uncertainty that arises in LLM deployments. This framework enables LLMs and their users to take contextually appropriate steps, such as requesting clarification, retrieving external information, or refining inputs. By supporting active resolution rather than passive avoidance, it opens the door to more reliable, transparent, and broadly applicable LLM systems, particularly in high-stakes, real-world settings.

This paper addresses the challenge of model uncertainty in quantitative finance, where decisions in portfolio allocation, derivative pricing, and risk management rely on estimating stochastic models from limited data. In practice, the unavailability of the true probability measure forces reliance on an empirical approximation, and even small misestimations can lead to significant deviations in decision quality. Building on the framework of Klibanoff et al. (2005), we enhance the conventional objective - whether this is expected utility in an investing context or a hedging metric - by superimposing an outer "uncertainty measure", motivated by traditional monetary risk measures, on the space of models. In scenarios where a natural model distribution is lacking or Bayesian methods are impractical, we propose an ad hoc subsampling strategy, analogous to bootstrapping in statistical finance and related to mini-batch sampling in deep learning, to approximate model uncertainty. To address the quadratic memory demands of naive implementations, we also present an adapted stochastic gradient descent algorithm that enables efficient parallelization. Through analytical, simulated, and empirical studies - including multi-period, real data and high-dimensional examples - we demonstrate that uncertainty measures outperform traditional mixture of measures strategies and our model-agnostic subsampling-based approach not only enhances robustness against model risk but also achieves performance comparable to more elaborate Bayesian methods.

Modern data marketplaces and data sharing consortia increasingly rely on incentive mechanisms to encourage agents to contribute data. However, schemes that reward agents based on the quantity of submitted data are vulnerable to manipulation, as agents may submit fabricated or low-quality data to inflate their rewards. Prior work has proposed comparing each agent's data against others' to promote honesty: when others contribute genuine data, the best way to minimize discrepancy is to do the same. Yet prior implementations of this idea rely on very strong assumptions about the data distribution (e.g. Gaussian), limiting their applicability. In this work, we develop reward mechanisms based on a novel, two-sample test inspired by the Cramér-von Mises statistic. Our methods strictly incentivize agents to submit more genuine data, while disincentivizing data fabrication and other types of untruthful reporting. We establish that truthful reporting constitutes a (possibly approximate) Nash equilibrium in both Bayesian and prior-agnostic settings. We theoretically instantiate our method in three canonical data sharing problems and show that it relaxes key assumptions made by prior work. Empirically, we demonstrate that our mechanism incentivizes truthful data sharing via simulations and on real-world language and image data.