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 Bayesian Inference


SoftPipe: A Soft-Guided Reinforcement Learning Framework for Automated Data Preparation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Data preparation is a foundational yet notoriously challenging component of the machine learning lifecycle, characterized by a vast combinatorial search space. While reinforcement learning (RL) offers a promising direction, state-of-the-art methods suffer from a critical limitation: to manage the search space, they rely on rigid ``hard constraints'' that prematurely prune the search space and often preclude optimal solutions. To address this, we introduce SoftPipe, a novel RL framework that replaces these constraints with a flexible ``soft guidance'' paradigm. SoftPipe formulates action selection as a Bayesian inference problem. A high-level strategic prior, generated by a Large Language Model (LLM), probabilistically guides exploration. This prior is combined with empirical estimators from two sources through a collaborative process: a fine-grained quality score from a supervised Learning-to-Rank (LTR) model and a long-term value estimate from the agent's Q-function. Through extensive experiments on 18 diverse datasets, we demonstrate that SoftPipe achieves up to a 13.9\% improvement in pipeline quality and 2.8$\times$ faster convergence compared to existing methods.


Tractable Representation Learning with Probabilistic Circuits

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are powerful probabilistic models that enable exact and tractable inference, making them highly suitable for probabilistic reasoning and inference tasks. While dominant in neural networks, representation learning with PCs remains underexplored, with prior approaches relying on external neural embeddings or activation-based encodings. To address this gap, we introduce autoencoding probabilistic circuits (APCs), a novel framework leveraging the tractability of PCs to model probabilistic embeddings explicitly. APCs extend PCs by jointly modeling data and embeddings, obtaining embedding representations through tractable probabilistic inference. The PC encoder allows the framework to natively handle arbitrary missing data and is seamlessly integrated with a neural decoder in a hybrid, end-to-end trainable architecture enabled by differentiable sampling. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that APCs outperform existing PC-based autoencoding methods in reconstruction quality, generate embeddings competitive with, and exhibit superior robustness in handling missing data compared to neural autoencoders. These results highlight APCs as a powerful and flexible representation learning method that exploits the probabilistic inference capabilities of PCs, showing promising directions for robust inference, out-of-distribution detection, and knowledge distillation.


Machine-Learning-Assisted Photonic Device Development: A Multiscale Approach from Theory to Characterization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Photonic device development (PDD) has achieved remarkable success in designing and implementing new devices for controlling light across various wavelengths, scales, and applications, including telecommunications, imaging, sensing, and quantum information processing. PDD is an iterative, five-step process that consists of: i) deriving device behavior from design parameters, ii) simulating device performance, iii) finding the optimal candidate designs from simulations, iv) fabricating the optimal device, and v) measuring device performance. Classically, all these steps involve Bayesian optimization, material science, control theory, and direct physics-driven numerical methods. However, many of these techniques are computationally intractable, monetarily costly, or difficult to implement at scale. In addition, PDD suffers from large optimization landscapes, uncertainties in structural or optical characterization, and difficulties in implementing robust fabrication processes. However, the advent of machine learning over the past decade has provided novel, data-driven strategies for tackling these challenges, including surrogate estimators for speeding up computations, generative modeling for noisy measurement modeling and data augmentation, reinforcement learning for fabrication, and active learning for experimental physical discovery. In this review, we present a comprehensive perspective on these methods to enable machine-learning-assisted PDD (ML-PDD) for efficient design optimization with powerful generative models, fast simulation and characterization modeling under noisy measurements, and reinforcement learning for fabrication. This review will provide researchers from diverse backgrounds with valuable insights into this emerging topic, fostering interdisciplinary efforts to accelerate the development of complex photonic devices and systems.


Probably Approximately Correct Causal Discovery

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The discovery of causal relationships is a foundational problem in artificial intelligence, statistics, epidemiology, economics, and beyond. While elegant theories exist for accurate causal discovery given infinite data, real-world applications are inherently resource-constrained. Effective methods for inferring causal relationships from observational data must perform well under finite data and time constraints, where "performing well" implies achieving high, though not perfect accuracy. In his seminal paper A Theory of the Learnable (Valiant, 1984), Valiant highlighted the importance of resource constraints in supervised machine learning, introducing the concept of Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) learning as an alternative to exact learning. Inspired by Valiant's work, we propose the Probably Approximately Correct Causal (PACC) Discovery framework, which extends PAC learning principles to the causal field. This framework emphasizes both computational and sample efficiency for established causal methods such as propensity score techniques and instrumental variable approaches. Furthermore, we show that it can provide theoretical guarantees for other widely used methods, such as the Self-Controlled Case Series (SCCS) method, which had previously lacked such guarantees.


Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Recurrence Classification Using Machine Learning Models and Bayesian Neural Networks with Varying Priors: A SHAP-Based Interpretation of the Best Performing Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Differentiated thyroid cancer DTC recurrence is a major public health concern, requiring classification and predictive models that are not only accurate but also interpretable and uncertainty aware. This study introduces a comprehensive framework for DTC recurrence classification using a dataset containing 383 patients and 16 clinical and pathological variables. Initially, 11 machine learning ML models were employed using the complete dataset, where the Support Vector Machines SVM model achieved the highest accuracy of 0.9481. To reduce complexity and redundancy, feature selection was carried out using the Boruta algorithm, and the same ML models were applied to the reduced dataset, where it was observed that the Logistic Regression LR model obtained the maximum accuracy of 0.9611. However, these ML models often lack uncertainty quantification, which is critical in clinical decision making. Therefore, to address this limitation, the Bayesian Neural Networks BNN with six varying prior distributions, including Normal 0,1, Normal 0,10, Laplace 0,1, Cauchy 0,1, Cauchy 0,2.5, and Horseshoe 1, were implemented on both the complete and reduced datasets. The BNN model with Normal 0,10 prior distribution exhibited maximum accuracies of 0.9740 and 0.9870 before and after feature selection, respectively.


NUTMEG: Separating Signal From Noise in Annotator Disagreement

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

NLP models often rely on human-labeled data for training and evaluation. Many approaches crowdsource this data from a large number of annotators with varying skills, backgrounds, and motivations, resulting in conflicting annotations. These conflicts have traditionally been resolved by aggregation methods that assume disagreements are errors. Recent work has argued that for many tasks annotators may have genuine disagreements and that variation should be treated as signal rather than noise. However, few models separate signal and noise in annotator disagreement. In this work, we introduce NUTMEG, a new Bayesian model that incorporates information about annotator backgrounds to remove noisy annotations from human-labeled training data while preserving systematic disagreements. Using synthetic data, we show that NUTMEG is more effective at recovering ground-truth from annotations with systematic disagreement than traditional aggregation methods. We provide further analysis characterizing how differences in subpopulation sizes, rates of disagreement, and rates of spam affect the performance of our model. Finally, we demonstrate that downstream models trained on NUTMEG-aggregated data significantly outperform models trained on data from traditionally aggregation methods. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for both annotator competence and systematic disagreements when training on human-labeled data.


CLEAR: Unlearning Spurious Style-Content Associations with Contrastive LEarning with Anti-contrastive Regularization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Learning representations unaffected by superficial characteristics is important to ensure that shifts in these characteristics at test time do not compromise downstream prediction performance. For instance, in healthcare applications, we might like to learn features that contain information about pathology yet are unaffected by race, sex, and other sources of physiologic variability, thereby ensuring predictions are equitable and generalizable across all demographics. Here we propose Contrastive LEarning with Anti-contrastive Regularization (CLEAR), an intuitive and easy-to-implement framework that effectively separates essential (i.e., task-relevant) characteristics from superficial (i.e., task-irrelevant) characteristics during training, leading to better performance when superficial characteristics shift at test time. We begin by supposing that data representations can be semantically separated into task-relevant content features, which contain information relevant to downstream tasks, and task-irrelevant style features, which encompass superficial attributes that are irrelevant to these tasks, yet may degrade performance due to associations with content present in training data that do not generalize. We then prove that our anti-contrastive penalty, which we call Pair-Switching (PS), minimizes the Mutual Information between the style attributes and content labels. Finally, we instantiate CLEAR in the latent space of a Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE), then perform experiments to quantitatively and qualitatively evaluate the resulting CLEAR-VAE over several image datasets. Our results show that CLEAR-VAE allows us to: (a) swap and interpolate content and style between any pair of samples, and (b) improve downstream classification performance in the presence of previously unseen combinations of content and style. Our code will be made publicly available.


Concept-TRAK: Understanding how diffusion models learn concepts through concept-level attribution

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While diffusion models excel at image generation, their growing adoption raises critical concerns around copyright issues and model transparency. Existing attribution methods identify training examples influencing an entire image, but fall short in isolating contributions to specific elements, such as styles or objects, that matter most to stakeholders. To bridge this gap, we introduce \emph{concept-level attribution} via a novel method called \emph{Concept-TRAK}. Concept-TRAK extends influence functions with two key innovations: (1) a reformulated diffusion training loss based on diffusion posterior sampling, enabling robust, sample-specific attribution; and (2) a concept-aware reward function that emphasizes semantic relevance. We evaluate Concept-TRAK on the AbC benchmark, showing substantial improvements over prior methods. Through diverse case studies--ranging from identifying IP-protected and unsafe content to analyzing prompt engineering and compositional learning--we demonstrate how concept-level attribution yields actionable insights for responsible generative AI development and governance.


On Reconstructing Training Data From Bayesian Posteriors and Trained Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Publicly releasing the specification of a model with its trained parameters means an adversary can attempt to reconstruct information about the training data via training data reconstruction attacks, a major vulnerability of modern machine learning methods. This paper makes three primary contributions: establishing a mathematical framework to express the problem, characterising the features of the training data that are vulnerable via a maximum mean discrepancy equivalance and outlining a score matching framework for reconstructing data in both Bayesian and non-Bayesian models, the former is a first in the literature.


Efficient Uncertainty in LLMs through Evidential Knowledge Distillation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Accurate uncertainty quantification remains a key challenge for standard LLMs, prompting the adoption of Bayesian and ensemble-based methods. However, such methods typically necessitate computationally expensive sampling, involving multiple forward passes to effectively estimate predictive uncertainty. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach enabling efficient and effective uncertainty estimation in LLMs without sacrificing performance. Specifically, we distill uncertainty-aware teacher models - originally requiring multiple forward passes - into compact student models sharing the same architecture but fine-tuned using Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA). We compare two distinct distillation strategies: one in which the student employs traditional softmax-based outputs, and another in which the student leverages Dirichlet-distributed outputs to explicitly model epistemic uncertainty via evidential learning. Empirical evaluations on classification datasets demonstrate that such students can achieve comparable or superior predictive and uncertainty quantification performance relative to their teacher models, while critically requiring only a single forward pass. To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration that immediate and robust uncertainty quantification can be achieved in LLMs through evidential distillation.