Embodied intelligence posits that cognitive capabilities fundamentally emerge from - and are shaped by - an agent's real-time sensorimotor interactions with its environment. Such adaptive behavior inherently requires continuous inference under uncertainty. Bayesian statistics offers a principled probabilistic framework to address this challenge by representing knowledge as probability distributions and updating beliefs in response to new evidence. The core computational processes underlying embodied intelligence - including perception, action selection, learning, and even higher-level cognition - can be effectively understood and modeled as forms of Bayesian inference. Despite the deep conceptual connection between Bayesian statistics and embodied intelligence, Bayesian principles have not been widely or explicitly applied in today's embodied intelligence systems. In this work, we examine both Bayesian and contemporary embodied intelligence approaches through two fundamental lenses: search and learning - the two central themes in modern AI, as highlighted in Rich Sutton's influential essay "The Bitter Lesson". This analysis sheds light on why Bayesian inference has not played a central role in the development of modern embodied intelligence. At the same time, it reveals that current embodied intelligence systems remain largely confined to closed-physical-world environments, and highlights the potential for Bayesian methods to play a key role in extending these systems toward truly open physical-world embodied intelligence.

Uncertainty quantification is an important prerequisite for the deployment of deep learning models in safety-critical areas. Yet, this hinges on the uncertainty estimates being useful to the extent the prediction intervals are well-calibrated and sharp. In the absence of inherent uncertainty estimates (e.g. pretrained models predicting only point estimates), popular approaches that operate post-hoc include Laplace's method and split conformal prediction (split-CP). However, Laplace's method can be miscalibrated when the model is misspecified and split-CP requires sample splitting, and thus comes at the expense of statistical efficiency. In this work, we construct prediction intervals for neural network regressors post-hoc without held-out data. This is achieved by approximating the full conformal prediction method (full-CP). Whilst full-CP nominally requires retraining the model for every test point and candidate label, we propose to train just once and locally perturb model parameters using Gauss-Newton influence to approximate the effect of retraining. Coupled with linearization of the network, we express the absolute residual nonconformity score as a piecewise linear function of the candidate label allowing for an efficient procedure that avoids the exhaustive search over the output space. On standard regression benchmarks and bounding box localization, we show the resulting prediction intervals are locally-adaptive and often tighter than those of split-CP.

Symbolic regression automates the process of learning closed-form mathematical models from data. Standard approaches to symbolic regression, as well as newer deep learning approaches, rely on heuristic model selection criteria, heuristic regularization, and heuristic exploration of model space. Here, we discuss the probabilistic approach to symbolic regression, an alternative to such heuristic approaches with direct connections to information theory and statistical physics. We show how the probabilistic approach establishes model plausibility from basic considerations and explicit approximations, and how it provides guarantees of performance that heuristic approaches lack. We also discuss how the probabilistic approach compels us to consider model ensembles, as opposed to single models.

Solder joint reliability related to failures due to thermomechanical loading is a critically important yet physically complex engineering problem. As a result, simulated behavior is oftentimes computationally expensive. In an increasingly data-driven world, the usage of efficient data-driven design schemes is a popular choice. Among them, Bayesian optimization (BO) with Gaussian process regression is one of the most important representatives. The authors argue that computational savings can be obtained from exploiting thorough surrogate modeling and selecting a design candidate based on multiple acquisition functions. This is feasible due to the relatively low computational cost, compared to the expensive simulation objective. This paper addresses the shortcomings in the adjacent literature by providing and implementing a novel heuristic framework to perform BO with adaptive hyperparameters across the various optimization iterations. Adaptive BO is subsequently compared to regular BO when faced with synthetic objective minimization problems. The results show the efficiency of adaptive BO when compared any worst-performing regular Bayesian schemes. As an engineering use case, the solder joint reliability problem is tackled by minimizing the accumulated non-linear creep strain under a cyclic thermal load. Results show that adaptive BO outperforms regular BO by 3% on average at any given computational budget threshold, critically saving half of the computational expense budget. This practical result underlines the methodological potential of the adaptive Bayesian data-driven methodology to achieve better results and cut optimization-related expenses. Lastly, in order to promote the reproducibility of the results, the data-driven implementations are made available on an open-source basis.

This paper addresses classification problems with matrix-valued data, which commonly arises in applications such as neuroimaging and signal processing. Building on the assumption that the data from each class follows a matrix normal distribution, we propose a novel extension of Fisher's Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) tailored for matrix-valued observations. To effectively capture structural information while maintaining estimation flexibility, we adopt a nonparametric empirical Bayes framework based on Nonparametric Maximum Likelihood Estimation (NPMLE), applied to vectorized and scaled matrices. The NPMLE method has been shown to provide robust, flexible, and accurate estimates for vector-valued data with various structures in the mean vector or covariance matrix. By leveraging its strengths, our method is effectively generalized to the matrix setting, thereby improving classification performance. Through extensive simulation studies and real data applications, including electroencephalography (EEG) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) analysis, we demonstrate that the proposed method consistently outperforms existing approaches across a variety of data structures.

Landmine removal is a slow, resource-intensive process affecting over 60 countries. While AI has been proposed to enhance explosive ordnance (EO) detection, existing methods primarily focus on object recognition, with limited attention to prediction of landmine risk based on spatial pattern information. This work aims to answer the following research question: How can AI be used to predict landmine risk from landmine patterns to improve clearance time efficiency? To that effect, we introduce RestoreAI, an AI system for pattern-based risk estimation of remaining explosives. RestoreAI is the first AI system that leverages landmine patterns for risk prediction, improving the accuracy of estimating the residual risk of missing EO prior to land release. We particularly focus on the implementation of three instances of RestoreAI, respectively, linear, curved and Bayesian pattern deminers. First, the linear pattern deminer uses linear landmine patterns from a principal component analysis (PCA) for the landmine risk prediction. Second, the curved pattern deminer uses curved landmine patterns from principal curves. Finally, the Bayesian pattern deminer incorporates prior expert knowledge by using a Bayesian pattern risk prediction. Evaluated on real-world landmine data, RestoreAI significantly boosts clearance efficiency. The top-performing pattern-based deminers achieved a 14.37 percentage point increase in the average share of cleared landmines per timestep and required 24.45% less time than the best baseline deminer to locate all landmines. Interestingly, linear and curved pattern deminers showed no significant performance difference, suggesting that more efficient linear patterns are a viable option for risk prediction.

Many robotic systems require extended deployments in complex, dynamic environments. In such deployments, parts of the environment may change between subsequent robot observations. Most robotic mapping or environment modeling algorithms are incapable of representing dynamic features in a way that enables predicting their future state. Instead, they opt to filter certain state observations, either by removing them or some form of weighted averaging. This paper introduces Perpetua, a method for modeling the dynamics of semi-static features. Perpetua is able to: incorporate prior knowledge about the dynamics of the feature if it exists, track multiple hypotheses, and adapt over time to enable predicting of future feature states. Specifically, we chain together mixtures of "persistence" and "emergence" filters to model the probability that features will disappear or reappear in a formal Bayesian framework. The approach is an efficient, scalable, general, and robust method for estimating the states of features in an environment, both in the present as well as at arbitrary future times. Through experiments on simulated and real-world data, we find that Perpetua yields better accuracy than similar approaches while also being online adaptable and robust to missing observations.

Black box optimization (BBO) focuses on optimizing unknown functions in high-dimensional spaces. In many applications, sampling the unknown function is expensive, imposing a tight sample budget. Ongoing work is making progress on reducing the sample budget by learning the shape/structure of the function, known as kernel learning. We propose a new method to learn the kernel of a Gaussian Process. Our idea is to create a continuous kernel space in the latent space of a variational autoencoder, and run an auxiliary optimization to identify the best kernel. Results show that the proposed method, Kernel Optimized Blackbox Optimization ( KOBO), outperforms state of the art by estimating the optimal at considerably lower sample budgets. Results hold not only across synthetic benchmark functions but also in real applications. We show that a hearing aid may be personalized with fewer audio queries to the user, or a generative model could converge to desirable images from limited user ratings.

Due to the remarkable capabilities and growing impact of large language models (LLMs), they have been deeply integrated into many aspects of society. Thus, ensuring their alignment with human values and intentions has emerged as a critical challenge. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of practical alignment techniques, training protocols, and empirical findings in LLM alignment. We analyze the development of alignment methods across diverse paradigms, characterizing the fundamental trade-offs between core alignment objectives. Our analysis shows that while supervised fine-tuning enables basic instruction-following, preference-based methods offer more flexibility for aligning with nuanced human intent. We discuss state-of-the-art techniques, including Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), Constitutional AI, brain-inspired methods, and alignment uncertainty quantification (AUQ), highlighting their approaches to balancing quality and efficiency. We review existing evaluation frameworks and benchmarking datasets, emphasizing limitations such as reward misspecification, distributional robustness, and scalable oversight. We summarize strategies adopted by leading AI labs to illustrate the current state of practice. We conclude by outlining open problems in oversight, value pluralism, robustness, and continuous alignment. This survey aims to inform both researchers and practitioners navigating the evolving landscape of LLM alignment.

Classical game-theoretic models typically assume rational agents, complete information, and common knowledge of payoffs - assumptions that are often violated in real-world MAS characterized by uncertainty, misaligned perceptions, and nested beliefs. To overcome these limitations, researchers have proposed extensions that incorporate models of cognitive constraints, subjective beliefs, and heterogeneous reasoning. Among these, hypergame theory extends the classical paradigm by explicitly modeling agents' subjective perceptions of the strategic scenario, known as perceptual games, in which agents may hold divergent beliefs about the structure, payoffs, or available actions. We present a systematic review of agent-compatible applications of hypergame theory, examining how its descriptive capabilities have been adapted to dynamic and interactive MAS contexts. We analyze 44 selected studies from cybersecurity, robotics, social simulation, communications, and general game-theoretic modeling. Building on a formal introduction to hypergame theory and its two major extensions - hierarchical hypergames and HNF - we develop agent-compatibility criteria and an agent-based classification framework to assess integration patterns and practical applicability. Our analysis reveals prevailing tendencies, including the prevalence of hierarchical and graph-based models in deceptive reasoning and the simplification of extensive theoretical frameworks in practical applications. We identify structural gaps, including the limited adoption of HNF-based models, the lack of formal hypergame languages, and unexplored opportunities for modeling human-agent and agent-agent misalignment. By synthesizing trends, challenges, and open research directions, this review provides a new roadmap for applying hypergame theory to enhance the realism and effectiveness of strategic modeling in dynamic multi-agent environments.