Bayesian Inference
A Guide to Bayesian Optimization in Bioprocess Engineering
Siska, Maximilian, Pajak, Emma, Rosenthal, Katrin, Chanona, Antonio del Rio, von Lieres, Eric, Helleckes, Laura Marie
Bayesian optimization has become widely popular across various experimental sciences due to its favorable attributes: it can handle noisy data, perform well with relatively small datasets, and provide adaptive suggestions for sequential experimentation. While still in its infancy, Bayesian optimization has recently gained traction in bioprocess engineering. However, experimentation with biological systems is highly complex and the resulting experimental uncertainty requires specific extensions to classical Bayesian optimization. Moreover, current literature often targets readers with a strong statistical background, limiting its accessibility for practitioners. In light of these developments, this review has two aims: first, to provide an intuitive and practical introduction to Bayesian optimization; and second, to outline promising application areas and open algorithmic challenges, thereby highlighting opportunities for future research in machine learning.
BKP: An R Package for Beta Kernel Process Modeling
Zhao, Jiangyan, Qing, Kunhai, Xu, Jin
We present BKP, a user-friendly and extensible R package that implements the Beta Kernel Process (BKP) -- a fully nonparametric and computationally efficient framework for modeling spatially varying binomial probabilities. The BKP model combines localized kernel-weighted likelihoods with conjugate beta priors, resulting in closed-form posterior inference without requiring latent variable augmentation or intensive MCMC sampling. The package supports binary and aggregated binomial responses, allows flexible choices of kernel functions and prior specification, and provides loss-based kernel hyperparameter tuning procedures. In addition, BKP extends naturally to the Dirichlet Kernel Process (DKP) for modeling spatially varying multinomial or compositional data. To our knowledge, this is the first publicly available R package for implementing BKP-based methods. We illustrate the use of BKP through several synthetic and real-world datasets, highlighting its interpretability, accuracy, and scalability. The package aims to facilitate practical application and future methodological development of kernel-based beta modeling in statistics and machine learning.
Extending the Entropic Potential of Events for Uncertainty Quantification and Decision-Making in Artificial Intelligence
This work demonstrates how the concept of the entropic potential of events -- a parameter quantifying the influence of discrete events on the expected future entropy of a system -- can enhance uncertainty quantification, decision-making, and interpretability in artificial intelligence (AI). Building on its original formulation in physics, the framework is adapted for AI by introducing an event-centric measure that captures how actions, observations, or other discrete occurrences impact uncertainty at future time horizons. Both the original and AI-adjusted definitions of entropic potential are formalized, with the latter emphasizing conditional expectations to account for counterfactual scenarios. Applications are explored in policy evaluation, intrinsic reward design, explainable AI, and anomaly detection, highlighting the metric's potential to unify and strengthen uncertainty modeling in intelligent systems. Conceptual examples illustrate its use in reinforcement learning, Bayesian inference, and anomaly detection, while practical considerations for computation in complex AI models are discussed. The entropic potential framework offers a theoretically grounded, interpretable, and versatile approach to managing uncertainty in AI, bridging principles from thermodynamics, information theory, and machine learning.
Multidimensional classification of posts for online course discussion forum curation
Candido, Antonio Leandro Martins, Maia, Jose Everardo Bessa
The automatic curation of discussion forums in online courses requires constant updates, making frequent retraining of Large Language Models (LLMs) a resource-intensive process. To circumvent the need for costly fine-tuning, this paper proposes and evaluates the use of Bayesian fusion. The approach combines the multidimensional classification scores of a pre-trained generic LLM with those of a classifier trained on local data. The performance comparison demonstrated that the proposed fusion improves the results compared to each classifier individually, and is competitive with the LLM fine-tuning approach