We study the problem of identifying change points in high-dimensional generalized linear models, and propose an approach based on sample-weighted empirical risk minimization. Our method, Weighted ERM, encodes priors on the change points via weights assigned to each sample, to obtain weighted versions of standard estimators such as M-estimators and maximum-likelihood estimators. Under mild assumptions on the data, we obtain a precise asymptotic characterization of the performance of our method for general Gaussian designs, in the high-dimensional limit where the number of samples and covariate dimension grow proportionally. We show how this characterization can be used to efficiently construct a posterior distribution over change points. Numerical experiments on both simulated and real data illustrate the efficacy of Weighted ERM compared to existing approaches, demonstrating that sample weights constructed with weakly informative priors can yield accurate change point estimators. Our method is implemented as an open-source package, weightederm, available in Python and R.

In many problems of data-driven modeling for dynamical systems, the governing equations are not known a priori and must be selected phenomenologically from a large set of candidate interactions and basis functions. In such situations, point estimates alone can be misleading, because multiple model components may explain the observed data comparably well, especially when the data are limited or the dynamics exhibit poor identifiability. Quantifying the uncertainty associated with model selection is therefore essential for constructing reliable dynamical models from data. In this work, we develop a Bayesian sparse identification framework for dynamical systems with coupled components, aimed at inferring both interaction structure and functional form together with principled uncertainty quantification. The proposed method combines sparse modeling with Bayesian model averaging, yielding posterior inclusion probabilities that quantify the credibility of each candidate interaction and basis component. Through numerical experiments on oscillator networks, we show that the framework accurately recovers sparse interaction structures with quantified uncertainty, including higher-order harmonic components, phase-lag effects, and multi-body interactions. We also demonstrate that, even in a phenomenological setting where the true governing equations are not contained in the assumed model class, the method can identify effective functional components with quantified uncertainty. These results highlight the importance of Bayesian uncertainty quantification in data-driven discovery of dynamical models.

Accurate representation of non-Gaussian distributions of quantities of interest in nonlinear dynamical systems is critical for estimation, control, and decision-making, but can be challenging when forward propagations are expensive to carry out. This paper presents an approach for estimating probability density functions of states evolving under nonlinear dynamics using Seminonparametric (SNP), or Gallant-Nychka, densities. SNP densities employ a probabilists' Hermite polynomial basis to model non-Gaussian behavior and are positive everywhere on the support by construction. We use Monte Carlo to approximate the expectation integrals that arise in the maximum likelihood estimation of SNP coefficients, and introduce a convex relaxation to generate effective initial estimates. The method is demonstrated on density and quantile estimation for the chaotic Lorenz system. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can accurately capture non-Gaussian density structure and compute quantiles using significantly fewer samples than raw Monte Carlo sampling.

Time-series analysis is often affected by missing data, a common problem across several fields, including healthcare and environmental monitoring. Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) has been prominent for imputing missing values through "fully conditional specification". We extend MICE using the Bayesian framework (tBayes-MICE), utilising Bayesian inference to impute missing values via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to account for uncertainty in MICE model parameters and imputed values. We also include temporally informed initialisation and time-lagged features in the model to respect the sequential nature of time-series data. We evaluate the tBayes-MICE method using two real-world datasets (AirQuality and PhysioNet), and using both the Random Walk Metropolis (RWM) and the Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin Algorithm (MALA) samplers. Our results demonstrate that tBayes-MICE reduces imputation errors relative to the baseline methods over all variables and accounts for uncertainty in the imputation process, thereby providing a more accurate measure of imputation error. We also found that MALA mixed better than RWM across most variables, achieving comparable accuracy while providing more consistent posterior exploration. Overall, these findings suggest that the tBayes-MICE framework represents a practical and efficient approach to time-series imputation, balancing increased accuracy with meaningful quantification of uncertainty in various environmental and clinical settings.

Multivariate Hawkes processes are a widely used class of self-exciting point processes, but maximum likelihood estimation naively scales as $O(N^2)$ in the number of events. The canonical linear exponential Hawkes process admits a faster $O(N)$ recurrence, but prior work evaluates this recurrence sequentially, without exploiting parallelization on modern GPUs. We show that the Hawkes process intensity can be expressed as a product of sparse transition matrices admitting a linear-time associative multiply, enabling computation via a parallel prefix scan. This yields a simple yet massively parallelizable algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of linear exponential Hawkes processes. Our method reduces the computational complexity to approximately $O(N/P)$ with $P$ parallel processors, and naturally yields a batching scheme to maintain constant memory usage, avoiding GPU memory constraints. Importantly, it computes the exact likelihood without any additional assumptions or approximations, preserving the simplicity and interpretability of the model. We demonstrate orders-of-magnitude speedups on simulated and real datasets, scaling to thousands of nodes and tens of millions of events, substantially beyond scales reported in prior work. We provide an open-source PyTorch library implementing our optimizations.

This research considers a scalable inference for spatial data modeled through Gaussian intrinsic conditional autoregressive (ICAR) structures. The classical estimation method, restricted maximum likelihood (REML), requires repeated inversion and factorization of large, sparse precision matrices, which makes this computation costly. To sort this problem out, we propose a variational restricted maximum likelihood (VREML) framework that approximates the intractable marginal likelihood using a Gaussian variational distribution. By constructing an evidence lower bound (ELBO) on the restricted likelihood, we derive a computationally efficient coordinate-ascent algorithm for jointly estimating the spatial random effects and variance components. In this article, we theoretically establish the monotone convergence of ELBO and mathematically exhibit that the variational family is exact under Gaussian ICAR settings, which is an indication of nullifying approximation error at the posterior level. We empirically establish the supremacy of our VREML over MLE and INLA.

In the last decades, energy-based models (EBMs) have become an important class of probabilistic models in which a component of the likelihood is intractable and therefore cannot be evaluated explicitly. Consequently, parameter estimation in EBMs is challenging for conventional inference methods. In this work, we provide a unified framework that connects noise contrastive estimation (NCE), reverse logistic regression (RLR), multiple importance sampling (MIS), and bridge sampling within the context of EBMs. We further show that these methods are equivalent under specific conditions. This unified perspective clarifies relationships among existing methods and enables the development of new estimators, with the potential to improve statistical and computational efficiency. Furthermore, this study helps elucidate the success of NCE in terms of its flexibility and robustness, while also identifying scenarios in which its performance can be further improved. Hence, rather than being a purely descriptive review, this work offers a unifying perspective and additional methodological contributions. The MATLAB code used in the numerical experiments is also made freely available to support the reproducibility of the results.

Sampling physical systems with rough energy landscapes is hindered by rare events and metastable trapping. While Boltzmann generators already offer a solution, their reliance on the reverse Kullback--Leibler divergence frequently induces catastrophic mode collapse, missing specific modes in multi-modal distributions. Here, we introduce the Jeffreys Flow, a robust generative framework that mitigates this failure by distilling empirical sampling data from Parallel Tempering trajectories using the symmetric Jeffreys divergence. This formulation effectively balances local target-seeking precision with global modes coverage. We show that minimizing Jeffreys divergence suppresses mode collapse and structurally corrects inherent inaccuracies via distillation of the empirical reference data. We demonstrate the framework's scalability and accuracy on highly non-convex multidimensional benchmarks, including the systematic correction of stochastic gradient biases in Replica Exchange Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics and the massive acceleration of exact importance sampling in Path Integral Monte Carlo for quantum thermal states.

Neural network classifiers trained with cross-entropy loss achieve strong predictive accuracy but lack the capability to provide inherent predictive uncertainty estimates, thus requiring external techniques to obtain these estimates. In addition, softmax scores for the true class can vary substantially across independent training runs, which limits the reliability of uncertainty-based decisions in downstream tasks. Evidential Deep Learning aims to address these limitations by producing uncertainty estimates in a single pass, but evidential training is highly sensitive to design choices including loss formulation, prior regularization, and activation functions. Therefore, this work introduces an alternative Dirichlet parameter estimation strategy by applying a method of moments estimator to ensembles of softmax outputs, with an optional maximum-likelihood refinement step. This ensemble-based construction decouples uncertainty estimation from the fragile evidential loss design while also mitigating the variability of single-run cross-entropy training, producing explicit Dirichlet predictive distributions. Across multiple datasets, we show that the improved stability and predictive uncertainty behavior of these ensemble-derived Dirichlet estimates translate into stronger performance in downstream uncertainty-guided applications such as prediction confidence scoring and selective classification.

We investigate the data distribution valuation problem, which aims to quantify the values of data distributions from their samples. This is a recently proposed problem that is related to but different from classical data valuation and can be applied to various applications. For this problem, we develop a novel framework called Generalized Bayes Valuation that utilizes generalized Bayesian inference with a loss constructed from transferability measures. This framework allows us to solve, in a unified way, seemingly unrelated practical problems, such as annotator evaluation and data augmentation. Using the Bayesian principles, we further improve and enhance the applicability of our framework by extending it to the continuous data stream setting. Our experiment results confirm the effectiveness and efficiency of our framework in different real-world scenarios.