Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

The data deluge comes with high demands for data labeling.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Robust MDPs (RMDPs) can be used to compute policies with provable worst-case guarantees in reinforcement learning.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

The likelihood function is a fundamental component in Bayesian statistics.

Functional data, i.e., smooth random functions observed over a continuous domain, are increasingly available in areas such as biomedical research, health informatics, and epidemiology. However, effective statistical analysis for functional data is often hindered by challenges such as privacy constraints, sparse and irregular sampling, infinite dimensionality, and non-Gaussian structures. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel framework named Smooth Flow Matching (SFM), tailored for generative modeling of functional data to enable statistical analysis without exposing sensitive real data. Built upon flow-matching ideas, SFM constructs a semiparametric copula flow to generate infinite-dimensional functional data, free from Gaussianity or low-rank assumptions. It is computationally efficient, handles irregular observations, and guarantees the smoothness of the generated functions, offering a practical and flexible solution in scenarios where existing deep generative methods are not applicable. Through extensive simulation studies, we demonstrate the advantages of SFM in terms of both synthetic data quality and computational efficiency. We then apply SFM to generate clinical trajectory data from the MIMIC-IV patient electronic health records (EHR) longitudinal database. Our analysis showcases the ability of SFM to produce high-quality surrogate data for downstream statistical tasks, highlighting its potential to boost the utility of EHR data for clinical applications.

Max-linear Bayesian networks (MLBNs) are a relatively recent class of structural equation models which arise when the random variables involved have heavy-tailed distributions. Unlike most directed graphical models, MLBNs are typically not faithful to d-separation and thus classical causal discovery algorithms such as the PC algorithm or greedy equivalence search can not be used to accurately recover the true graph structure. In this paper, we begin the study of constraint-based discovery algorithms for MLBNs given an oracle for testing conditional independence in the true, unknown graph. We show that if the oracle is given by the $\ast$-separation criteria in the true graph, then the PC algorithm remains consistent despite the presence of additional CI statements implied by $\ast$-separation. We also introduce a new causal discovery algorithm named "PCstar" which assumes faithfulness to $C^\ast$-separation and is able to orient additional edges which cannot be oriented with only d- or $\ast$-separation.

In this paper, we investigate the problem of sequential decision-making for Sharpe ratio (SR) maximization in a stochastic bandit setting. We focus on the Thompson Sampling (TS) algorithm, a Bayesian approach celebrated for its empirical performance and exploration efficiency, under the assumption of Gaussian rewards with unknown parameters. Unlike conventional bandit objectives focusing on maximizing cumulative reward, Sharpe ratio optimization instead introduces an inherent tradeoff between achieving high returns and controlling risk, demanding careful exploration of both mean and variance. Our theoretical contributions include a novel regret decomposition specifically designed for the Sharpe ratio, highlighting the role of information acquisition about the reward distribution in driving learning efficiency. Then, we establish fundamental performance limits for the proposed algorithm \texttt{SRTS} in terms of an upper bound on regret. We also derive the matching lower bound and show the order-optimality. Our results show that Thompson Sampling achieves logarithmic regret over time, with distribution-dependent factors capturing the difficulty of distinguishing arms based on risk-adjusted performance. Empirical simulations show that our algorithm significantly outperforms existing algorithms.