Bayesian Inference
TabStruct: Measuring Structural Fidelity of Tabular Data
Jiang, Xiangjian, Simidjievski, Nikola, Jamnik, Mateja
Evaluating tabular generators remains a challenging problem, as the unique causal structural prior of heterogeneous tabular data does not lend itself to intuitive human inspection. Recent work has introduced structural fidelity as a tabular-specific evaluation dimension to assess whether synthetic data complies with the causal structures of real data. However, existing benchmarks often neglect the interplay between structural fidelity and conventional evaluation dimensions, thus failing to provide a holistic understanding of model performance. Moreover, they are typically limited to toy datasets, as quantifying existing structural fidelity metrics requires access to ground-truth causal structures, which are rarely available for real-world datasets. In this paper, we propose a novel evaluation framework that jointly considers structural fidelity and conventional evaluation dimensions. We introduce a new evaluation metric, $\textbf{global utility}$, which enables the assessment of structural fidelity even in the absence of ground-truth causal structures. In addition, we present $\textbf{TabStruct}$, a comprehensive evaluation benchmark offering large-scale quantitative analysis on 13 tabular generators from nine distinct categories, across 29 datasets. Our results demonstrate that global utility provides a task-independent, domain-agnostic lens for tabular generator performance. We release the TabStruct benchmark suite, including all datasets, evaluation pipelines, and raw results. Code is available at https://github.com/SilenceX12138/TabStruct.
Memory Unscented Particle Filter for 6-DOF Tactile Localization
Vezzani, Giulia, Pattacini, Ugo, Battistelli, Giorgio, Chisci, Luigi, Natale, Lorenzo
This paper addresses 6-DOF (degree-of-freedom) tactile localization, i.e. the pose estimation of tridimensional objects given tactile measurements. This estimation problem is fundamental for the operation of autonomous robots that are often required to manipulate and grasp objects whose pose is a-priori unknown. The nature of tactile measurements, the strict time requirements for real-time operation and the multimodality of the involved probability distributions pose remarkable challenges and call for advanced nonlinear filtering techniques. Following a Bayesian approach, this paper proposes a novel and effective algorithm, named Memory Unscented Particle Filter (MUPF), which solves the 6-DOF localization problem recursively in real-time by only exploiting contact point measurements. MUPF combines a modified particle filter that incorporates a sliding memory of past measurements to better handle multimodal distributions, along with the unscented Kalman filter that moves the particles towards regions of the search space that are more likely with the measurements. The performance of the proposed MUPF algorithm has been assessed both in simulation and on a real robotic system equipped with tactile sensors (i.e., the iCub humanoid robot). The experiments show that the algorithm provides accurate and reliable localization even with a low number of particles and, hence, is compatible with real-time requirements.
Adaptive-GraphSketch: Real-Time Edge Anomaly Detection via Multi-Layer Tensor Sketching and Temporal Decay
Ekle, Ocheme Anthony, Eberle, William
Anomaly detection in dynamic graphs is essential for identifying malicious activities, fraud, and unexpected behaviors in real-world systems such as cybersecurity and power grids. However, existing approaches struggle with scalability, probabilistic interpretability, and adaptability to evolving traffic patterns. In this paper, we propose ADAPTIVE-GRAPHSKETCH, a lightweight and scalable framework for real-time anomaly detection in streaming edge data. Our method integrates temporal multi-tensor sketching with Count-Min Sketch using Conservative Update (CMS-CU) to compactly track edge frequency patterns with bounded memory, while mitigating hash collision issues. We incorporate Bayesian inference for probabilistic anomaly scoring and apply Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) for adaptive thresholding tuned to burst intensity. Extensive experiments on four real-world intrusion detection datasets demonstrate that ADAPTIVE-GRAPHSKETCH outperforms state-of-the-art baselines such as ANOEDGE-G/L, MIDAS-R, and F-FADE, achieving up to 6.5% AUC gain on CIC-IDS2018 and up to 15.6% on CIC-DDoS2019, while processing 20 million edges in under 3.4 seconds using only 10 hash functions. Our results show that ADAPTIVE-GRAPHSKETCH is practical and effective for fast, accurate anomaly detection in large-scale streaming graphs. Keywords: Anomaly Detection, Streaming, Real-time, Dynamic Graphs, Edge Streams, Tensor Sketching
Parameter estimation with uncertainty quantification from continuous measurement data using neural network ensembles
We show that ensembles of deep neural networks, called deep ensembles, can be used to perform quantum parameter estimation while also providing a means for quantifying uncertainty in parameter estimates, which is a key advantage of using Bayesian inference for parameter estimation. These models are shown to be more robust to noise in the measurement results used to perform the parameter estimation as well as noise in the data used to train them. We also show that much less data is needed to achieve comparable performance to Bayesian inference based estimation, which is known to reach the ultimate precision limit as more data is collected, than was used in previous proposals.
Kalman Bayesian Transformer
Jing, Haoming, Wright, Oren, Moura, Josรฉ M. F., Nakahira, Yorie
Sequential fine-tuning of transformers is useful when new data arrive sequentially, especially with shifting distributions. Unlike batch learning, sequential learning demands that training be stabilized despite a small amount of data by balancing new information and previously learned knowledge in the pre-trained models. This challenge is further complicated when training is to be completed in latency-critical environments and learning must additionally quantify and be mediated by uncertainty. Motivated by these challenges, we propose a novel method that frames sequential fine-tuning as a posterior inference problem within a Bayesian framework. Our approach integrates closed-form moment propagation of random variables, Kalman Bayesian Neural Networks, and Taylor approximations of the moments of softmax functions. By explicitly accounting for pre-trained models as priors and adaptively balancing them against new information based on quantified uncertainty, our method achieves robust and data-efficient sequential learning. The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated through numerical simulations involving sequential adaptation of a decision transformer to tasks characterized by distribution shifts and limited memory resources.
A Computable Measure of Suboptimality for Entropy-Regularised Variational Objectives
Chazal, Clรฉmentine, Kanagawa, Heishiro, Shen, Zheyang, Korba, Anna, Oates, Chris. J.
Several emerging post-Bayesian methods target a probability distribution for which an entropy-regularised variational objective is minimised. This increased flexibility introduces a computational challenge, as one loses access to an explicit unnormalised density for the target. To mitigate this difficulty, we introduce a novel measure of suboptimality called 'gradient discrepancy', and in particular a 'kernel gradient discrepancy' (KGD) that can be explicitly computed. In the standard Bayesian context, KGD coincides with the kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD), and we obtain a novel charasterisation of KSD as measuring the size of a variational gradient. Outside this familiar setting, KGD enables novel sampling algorithms to be developed and compared, even when unnormalised densities cannot be obtained. To illustrate this point several novel algorithms are proposed, including a natural generalisation of Stein variational gradient descent, with applications to mean-field neural networks and prediction-centric uncertainty quantification presented. On the theoretical side, our principal contribution is to establish sufficient conditions for desirable properties of KGD, such as continuity and convergence control.
An Interval Type-2 Version of Bayes Theorem Derived from Interval Probability Range Estimates Provided by Subject Matter Experts
Rickard, John T., Dembski, William A., Rickards, James
Bayesian inference is widely used in many different fields to test hypotheses against observations. In most such applications, an assumption is made of precise input values to produce a precise output value. However, this is unrealistic for real-world applications. Often the best available information from subject matter experts (SMEs) in a given field is interval range estimates of the input probabilities involved in Bayes Theorem. This paper provides two key contributions to extend Bayes Theorem to an interval type-2 (IT2) version. First, we develop an IT2 version of Bayes Theorem that uses a novel and conservative method to avoid potential inconsistencies in the input IT2 MFs that otherwise might produce invalid output results. We then describe a novel and flexible algorithm for encoding SME-provided intervals into IT2 fuzzy membership functions (MFs), which we can use to specify the input probabilities in Bayes Theorem. Our algorithm generalizes and extends previous work on this problem that primarily addressed the encoding of intervals into word MFs for Computing with Words applications.
Uncertainty Estimation by Human Perception versus Neural Models
Mendes, Pedro, Romano, Paolo, Garlan, David
Modern neural networks (NNs) often achieve high predictive accuracy but are poorly calibrated, producing overconfident predictions even when wrong. This miscalibration poses serious challenges in applications where reliable uncertainty estimates are critical. In this work, we investigate how human perceptual uncertainty compares to uncertainty estimated by NNs. Using three vision benchmarks annotated with both human disagreement and crowdsourced confidence, we assess the correlation between model-predicted uncertainty and human-perceived uncertainty. Our results show that current methods only weakly align with human intuition, with correlations varying significantly across tasks and uncertainty metrics. Notably, we find that incorporating human-derived soft labels into the training process can improve calibration without compromising accuracy. These findings reveal a persistent gap between model and human uncertainty and highlight the potential of leveraging human insights to guide the development of more trustworthy AI systems.
A Comprehensive Guide to Differential Privacy: From Theory to User Expectations
Karmitsa, Napsu, Airola, Antti, Pahikkala, Tapio, Pitkรคmรคki, Tinja
The increasing availability of personal data has enabled significant advances in fields such as machine learning, healthcare, and cybersecurity. However, this data abundance also raises serious privacy concerns, especially in light of powerful re-identification attacks and growing legal and ethical demands for responsible data use. Differential privacy (DP) has emerged as a principled, mathematically grounded framework for mitigating these risks. This review provides a comprehensive survey of DP, covering its theoretical foundations, practical mechanisms, and real-world applications. It explores key algorithmic tools and domain-specific challenges - particularly in privacy-preserving machine learning and synthetic data generation. The report also highlights usability issues and the need for improved communication and transparency in DP systems. Overall, the goal is to support informed adoption of DP by researchers and practitioners navigating the evolving landscape of data privacy.
RESPLE: Recursive Spline Estimation for LiDAR-Based Odometry
Cao, Ziyu, Talbot, William, Li, Kailai
We present a novel recursive Bayesian estimation framework using B-splines for continuous-time 6-DoF dynamic motion estimation. The state vector consists of a recurrent set of position control points and orientation control point increments, enabling efficient estimation via a modified iterated extended Kalman filter without involving error-state formulations. The resulting recursive spline estimator (RESPLE) is further leveraged to develop a versatile suite of direct LiDAR-based odometry solutions, supporting the integration of one or multiple LiDARs and an IMU. We conduct extensive real-world evaluations using public datasets and our own experiments, covering diverse sensor setups, platforms, and environments. Compared to existing systems, RESPLE achieves comparable or superior estimation accuracy and robustness, while attaining real-time efficiency. Our results and analysis demonstrate RESPLE's strength in handling highly dynamic motions and complex scenes within a lightweight and flexible design, showing strong potential as a universal framework for multi-sensor motion estimation. We release the source code and experimental datasets at https://github.com/ASIG-X/RESPLE .