Bayesian Inference
A Bayesian Framework for Symmetry Inference in Chaotic Attractors
Ghanem, Ziad, Hyunwoong, Chang, Mrad, Preskella
Detecting symmetry from data is a fundamental problem in signal analysis, providing insight into underlying structure and constraints. When data emerge as trajectories of dynamical systems, symmetries encode structural properties of the dynamics that enable model reduction, principled comparison across conditions, and detection of regime changes. While recent optimal transport methods provide practical tools for data-driven symmetry detection in this setting, they rely on deterministic thresholds and lack uncertainty quantification, limiting robustness to noise and ability to resolve hierarchical symmetry structures. We present a Bayesian framework that formulates symmetry detection as probabilistic model selection over a lattice of candidate subgroups, using a Gibbs posterior constructed from Wasserstein distances between observed data and group-transformed copies. We establish three theoretical guarantees: $(i)$ a Bayesian Occam's razor favoring minimal symmetry consistent with data, $(ii)$ conjugation equivariance ensuring frame-independence, and $(iii)$ stability bounds under perturbations for robustness to noise. Posterior inference is performed via Metropolis-Hastings sampling and numerical experiments on equivariant dynamical systems and synthetic point clouds demonstrate accurate symmetry recovery under high noise and small sample sizes. An application to human gait dynamics reveals symmetry changes induced by mechanical constraints, demonstrating the framework's utility for statistical inference in biomechanical and dynamical systems.
Decision-focused Sensing and Forecasting for Adaptive and Rapid Flood Response: An Implicit Learning Approach
Sun, Qian, Hults, Graham, Xu, Susu
Timely and reliable decision-making is vital for flood emergency response, yet it remains severely hindered by limited and imprecise situational awareness due to various budget and data accessibility constraints. Traditional flood management systems often rely on in-situ sensors to calibrate remote sensing-based large-scale flood depth forecasting models, and further take flood depth estimates to optimize flood response decisions. However, these approaches often take fixed, decision task-agnostic strategies to decide where to put in-situ sensors (e.g., maximize overall information gain) and train flood forecasting models (e.g., minimize average forecasting errors), but overlook that systems with the same sensing gain and average forecasting errors may lead to distinct decisions. To address this, we introduce a novel decision-focused framework that strategically selects locations for in-situ sensor placement and optimize spatio-temporal flood forecasting models to optimize downstream flood response decision regrets. Our end-to-end pipeline integrates four components: a contextual scoring network, a differentiable sensor selection module under hard budget constraints, a spatio-temporal flood reconstruction and forecasting model, and a differentiable decision layer tailored to task-specific objectives. Central to our approach is the incorporation of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (I-MLE) to enable gradient-based learning over discrete sensor configurations, and probabilistic decision heads to enable differentiable approximation to various constrained disaster response tasks.
BEACON: Bayesian Optimal Stopping for Efficient LLM Sampling
Wan, Guangya, Xu, Zixin Stephen, Zorc, Sasa, Baucells, Manel, Hu, Mengxuan, Wang, Hao, Li, Sheng
Sampling multiple responses is a common way to improve LLM output quality, but it comes at the cost of additional computation. The key challenge is deciding when to stop generating new samples to balance accuracy gains against efficiency. To address this, we introduce BEACON (Bayesian Efficient Adaptive Criterion for Optimal N-stopping), a principled adaptive sampling framework grounded in Sequential Search with Bayesian Learning. BEACON sequentially generates responses from the policy LLM, updates posterior belief over reward distributions in real time without further training, and determines when to stop by weighing expected gains against computational cost. Sampling terminates once the marginal utility of further exploration no longer justifies the expense. We establish both theoretical optimality guarantees and practical tractability, and show empirically that BEACON reduces average sampling by up to 80% while maintaining response quality. We further demonstrate BEACON's utility for cost-efficient preference data generation and outline practical extensions, offering actionable insights for future researchers.
RL-PLUS: Countering Capability Boundary Collapse of LLMs in Reinforcement Learning with Hybrid-policy Optimization
Dong, Yihong, Jiang, Xue, Tao, Yongding, Liu, Huanyu, Zhang, Kechi, Mou, Lili, Cao, Rongyu, Ma, Yingwei, Chen, Jue, Li, Binhua, Jin, Zhi, Huang, Fei, Li, Yongbin, Li, Ge
Reinforcement Learning with V erifiable Reward (RL VR) has significantly advanced the complex reasoning abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, it struggles to break through the inherent capability boundaries of the base LLM, due to its essentially on-policy strategy coupled with LLM's immense action space and sparse reward. Critically, RL VR can lead to the capability boundary collapse, narrowing the LLM's problem-solving scope. To address this problem, we propose RL-PLUS, a novel hybrid-policy optimization approach for LLMs that synergizes internal exploitation with external data to achieve stronger reasoning capabilities and surpass the boundaries of base models. RL-PLUS integrates two core components, i.e., Multiple Importance Sampling to address distributional mismatch from external data, and Exploration-Based Advantage Function to guide the model towards high-value, unexplored reasoning paths. We provide both theoretical analysis and extensive experiments to demonstrate the superiority and gen-eralizability of our approach. Compared with existing RL VR methods, RL-PLUS achieves 1) state-of-the-art performance on six math reasoning benchmarks; 2) superior performance on six out-of-distribution reasoning tasks; 3) consistent and significant gains across diverse model families, with average relative improvements up to 69.2%. Moreover, the analysis of Pass@k curves indicates that RL-PLUS effectively resolves the capability boundary collapse problem.
Closing the Sim2Real Performance Gap in RL
Anand, Akhil S, Sawant, Shambhuraj, Hoffmann, Jasper, Reinhardt, Dirk, Gros, Sebastien
Sim2Real aims at training policies in high-fidelity simulation environments and effectively transferring them to the real world. Despite the developments of accurate simulators and Sim2Real RL approaches, the policies trained purely in simulation often suffer significant performance drops when deployed in real environments. This drop is referred to as the Sim2Real performance gap. Current Sim2Real RL methods optimize the simulator accuracy and variability as proxies for real-world performance. However, these metrics do not necessarily correlate with the real-world performance of the policy as established theoretically and empirically in the literature. We propose a novel framework to address this issue by directly adapting the simulator parameters based on real-world performance. We frame this problem as a bi-level RL framework: the inner-level RL trains a policy purely in simulation, and the outer-level RL adapts the simulation model and in-sim reward parameters to maximize real-world performance of the in-sim policy. We derive and validate in simple examples the mathematical tools needed to develop bi-level RL algorithms that close the Sim2Real performance gap.
Unsupervised anomaly detection using Bayesian flow networks: application to brain FDG PET in the context of Alzheimer's disease
Roy, Hugues, Dorent, Reuben, Burgos, Ninon
Unsupervised anomaly detection (UAD) plays a crucial role in neuroimaging for identifying deviations from healthy subject data and thus facilitating the diagnosis of neurological disorders. In this work, we focus on Bayesian flow networks (BFNs), a novel class of generative models, which have not yet been applied to medical imaging or anomaly detection. BFNs combine the strength of diffusion frameworks and Bayesian inference. We introduce AnoBFN, an extension of BFNs for UAD, designed to: i) perform conditional image generation under high levels of spatially correlated noise, and ii) preserve subject specificity by incorporating a recursive feedback from the input image throughout the generative process. We evaluate AnoBFN on the challenging task of Alzheimer's disease-related anomaly detection in FDG PET images. Our approach outperforms other state-of-the-art methods based on V AEs ( ฮฒ -VAE), GANs (f-AnoGAN), and diffusion models (AnoDDPM), demonstrating its effectiveness at detecting anomalies while reducing false positive rates.
A Semantic Generalization of Shannon's Information Theory and Applications
Does semantic communication require a semantic information theory parallel to Shannon's information theory, or can Shannon's work be generalized for semantic communication? This paper advocates for the latter and introduces a semantic generalization of Shannon's information theory (G theory for short). The core idea is to replace the distortion constraint with the semantic constraint, achieved by utilizing a set of truth functions as a semantic channel. These truth functions enable the expressions of semantic distortion, semantic information measures, and semantic information loss. Notably, the maximum semantic information criterion is equivalent to the maximum likelihood criterion and similar to the Regularized Least Squares criterion. This paper shows G theory's applications to daily and electronic semantic communication, machine learning, constraint control, Bayesian confirmation, portfolio theory, and information value. The improvements in machine learning methods involve multilabel learning and classification, maximum mutual information classification, mixture models, and solving latent variables. Furthermore, insights from statistical physics are discussed: Shannon information is similar to free energy; semantic information to free energy in local equilibrium systems; and information efficiency to the efficiency of free energy in performing work. The paper also proposes refining Friston's minimum free energy principle into the maximum information efficiency principle. Lastly, it compares G theory with other semantic information theories and discusses its limitation in representing the semantics of complex data.
Symmetries in PAC-Bayesian Learning
Symmetries are known to improve the empirical performance of machine learning models, yet theoretical guarantees explaining these gains remain limited. Prior work has focused mainly on compact group symmetries and often assumes that the data distribution itself is invariant, an assumption rarely satisfied in real-world applications. In this work, we extend generalization guarantees to the broader setting of non-compact symmetries, such as translations and to non-invariant data distributions. Building on the PAC-Bayes framework, we adapt and tighten existing bounds, demonstrating the approach on McAllester's PAC-Bayes bound while showing that it applies to a wide range of PAC-Bayes bounds. We validate our theory with experiments on a rotated MNIST dataset with a non-uniform rotation group, where the derived guarantees not only hold but also improve upon prior results. These findings provide theoretical evidence that, for symmetric data, symmetric models are preferable beyond the narrow setting of compact groups and invariant distributions, opening the way to a more general understanding of symmetries in machine learning.
Sparse Transformer Architectures via Regularized Wasserstein Proximal Operator with $L_1$ Prior
Han, Fuqun, Osher, Stanley, Li, Wuchen
Modern generative models, such as neural ordinary differential equations (neural ODEs) [4], transformers [25], and diffusion models [22], have demonstrated remarkable ability to learn and generate samples from complex, high-dimensional probability distributions. These architectures have achieved broad success in scientific computing, image processing, and data science, offering scalable frameworks for data-driven modeling. However, training and sampling in such spaces remain expensive and highly sensitive to architectural and optimization choices. Despite these advances, the curse of dimensionality continues to present a fundamental challenge in many real-world applications. Fortunately, numerous problems in scientific computing exhibit intrinsic structures, such as sparsity, low-rank representations, or approximate invariances, that can be interpreted as prior information about the underlying data or operators. Leveraging such priors within generative models offers a promising avenue to improve both computational efficiency and generalization. A classical way to incorporate prior information, such as sparsity or piecewise regularity, is through Bayesian modeling, where the posterior combines a prior distribution encoding structural knowledge with a likelihood function derived from observations.
Particle Dynamics for Latent-Variable Energy-Based Models
Tang, Shiqin, Zhuang, Shuxin, Feng, Rong, Yu, Runsheng, Li, Hongzong, Zhang, Youzhi
Latent-variable energy-based models (LV-EBMs) assign a single normalized energy to joint pairs of observed data and latent variables, offering expressive generative modeling while capturing hidden structure. We recast maximum-likelihood training as a saddle problem over distributions on the latent and joint manifolds and view the inner updates as coupled Wasserstein gradient flows. The resulting algorithm alternates overdamped Langevin updates for a joint negative pool and for conditional latent particles with stochastic parameter ascent, requiring no discriminator or auxiliary networks. We prove existence and convergence under standard smoothness and dissi-pativity assumptions, with decay rates in KL divergence and Wasserstein-2 distance. The saddle-point view further yields an ELBO strictly tighter than bounds obtained with restricted amortized posteriors. Our method is evaluated on numerical approximations of physical systems and performs competitively against comparable approaches.