Transformer-based models for amortized probabilistic inference, such as neural processes, prior-fitted networks, and tabular foundation models, excel at single-pass marginal prediction. However, many real-world applications, from signal interpolation to multi-column tabular predictions, require coherent joint distributions that capture dependencies between predictions. While purely autoregressive architectures efficiently generate such distributions, they sacrifice the flexible set-conditioning that makes these models powerful for meta-learning. Conversely, the standard approach to obtain joint distributions from set-based models requires expensive re-encoding of the entire augmented conditioning set at each autoregressive step. We introduce a causal autoregressive buffer that preserves the advantages of both paradigms. Our approach decouples context encoding from updating the conditioning set. The model processes the context once and caches it. A dynamic buffer then captures target dependencies: as targets are incorporated, they enter the buffer and attend to both the cached context and previously buffered targets. This enables efficient batched autoregressive generation and one-pass joint log-likelihood evaluation. A unified training strategy allows seamless integration of set-based and autoregressive modes at minimal additional cost. Across synthetic functions, EEG signals, cognitive models, and tabular data, our method matches predictive accuracy of strong baselines while delivering up to 20 times faster joint sampling. Our approach combines the efficiency of autoregressive generative models with the representational power of set-based conditioning, making joint prediction practical for transformer-based probabilistic models.

The vulnerability of machine learning models to adversarial attacks remains a critical security challenge. Traditional defenses, such as adversarial training, typically robustify models by minimizing a worst-case loss. However, these deterministic approaches do not account for uncertainty in the adversary's attack. While stochastic defenses placing a probability distribution on the adversary exist, they often lack statistical rigor and fail to make explicit their underlying assumptions. To resolve these issues, we introduce a formal Bayesian framework that models adversarial uncertainty through a stochastic channel, articulating all probabilistic assumptions. This yields two robustification strategies: a proactive defense enacted during training, aligned with adversarial training, and a reactive defense enacted during operations, aligned with adversarial purification. Several previous defenses can be recovered as limiting cases of our model. We empirically validate our methodology, showcasing the benefits of explicitly modeling adversarial uncertainty.

Unsupervised anomaly detection is often framed around two widely studied paradigms. Deep one-class classification, exemplified by Deep SVDD, learns compact latent representations of normality, while density estimators realized by normalizing flows directly model the likelihood of nominal data. In this work, we show that uniformly scaling flows (USFs), normalizing flows with a constant Jacobian determinant, precisely connect these approaches. Specifically, we prove how training a USF via maximum-likelihood reduces to a Deep SVDD objective with a unique regularization that inherently prevents representational collapse. This theoretical bridge implies that USFs inherit both the density faithfulness of flows and the distance-based reasoning of one-class methods. We further demonstrate that USFs induce a tighter alignment between negative log-likelihood and latent norm than either Deep SVDD or non-USFs, and how recent hybrid approaches combining one-class objectives with VAEs can be naturally extended to USFs. Consequently, we advocate using USFs as a drop-in replacement for non-USFs in modern anomaly detection architectures. Empirically, this substitution yields consistent performance gains and substantially improved training stability across multiple benchmarks and model backbones for both image-level and pixel-level detection. These results unify two major anomaly detection paradigms, advancing both theoretical understanding and practical performance.

Evaluating generative models is challenging because standard metrics often fail to reflect human preferences. Human evaluations are more reliable but costly and noisy, as participants vary in expertise, attention, and diligence. Pairwise comparisons improve consistency, yet aggregating them into overall quality scores requires careful modeling. Bradley-Terry-based methods update item scores from comparisons, but existing approaches either ignore rater variability or lack convergence guarantees, limiting robustness and interpretability. We introduce BBQ, a Bayesian Bradley-Terry variant that explicitly models rater quality, downweighting or removing unreliable participants, and provides guaranteed monotonic likelihood convergence through an Expectation-Maximization algorithm. Empirical results show that BBQ achieves faster convergence, well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, and more robust, interpretable rankings compared to baseline Bradley-Terry models, even with noisy or crowdsourced raters. This framework enables more reliable and cost-effective human evaluation of generative models.

The average treatment effect (ATE) is widely used to evaluate the effectiveness of drugs and other medical interventions. In safety-critical applications like medicine, reliable inferences about the ATE typically require valid uncertainty quantification, such as through confidence intervals (CIs). However, estimating treatment effects in these settings often involves sensitive data that must be kept private. In this work, we present PrivATE, a novel machine learning framework for computing CIs for the ATE under differential privacy. Specifically, we focus on deriving valid privacy-preserving CIs for the ATE from observational data. Our PrivATE framework consists of three steps: (i) estimating the differentially private ATE through output perturbation; (ii) estimating the differentially private variance in a doubly robust manner; and (iii) constructing the CIs while accounting for the uncertainty from both the estimation and privatization steps. Our PrivATE framework is model agnostic, doubly robust, and ensures valid CIs. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework using synthetic and real-world medical datasets. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to derive a general, doubly robust framework for valid CIs of the ATE under ($\varepsilon,δ$)-differential privacy.

In the field of medicine and healthcare, the utilization of medical expertise, based on medical knowledge combined with patients' health information is a life-critical challenge for patients and health professionals. The within-laying complexity and variety form the need for a united approach to gather, analyze, and utilize existing knowledge of medical treatments, and medical operations to provide the ability to present knowledge for the means of accurate patient-driven decision-making. One way to achieve this is the fusion of multiple knowledge sources in healthcare. It provides health professionals the opportunity to select from multiple contextual aligned knowledge sources which enables the support for critical decisions. This paper presents multiple conceptual models for knowledge fusion in the field of medicine, based on a knowledge graph structure. It will evaluate, how knowledge fusion can be enabled and presents how to integrate various knowledge sources into the knowledge graph for rescue operations.

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has made unprecedented advances in vision language models over the past two years. During the generative process, new samples (images) are generated from an unknown high-dimensional distribution. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are particularly effective in drawing samples from such complex, high-dimensional distributions. This makes MCMC methods an integral component for models like EBMs, ensuring accurate sample generation. Gradient-based optimization is at the core of modern generative models. The update step during the optimization forms a Markov chain where the new update depends only on the current state. This allows exploration of the parameter space in a memoryless manner, thus combining the benefits of gradient-based optimization and MCMC sampling. MCMC methods have shown an equally important role in physically based rendering where complex light paths are otherwise quite challenging to sample from simple importance sampling techniques. A lot of research is dedicated towards bringing physical realism to samples (images) generated from diffusion-based generative models in a data-driven manner, however, a unified framework connecting these techniques is still missing. In this course, we take the first steps toward understanding each of these components and exploring how MCMC could potentially serve as a bridge, linking these closely related areas of research. Our course aims to provide necessary theoretical and practical tools to guide students, researchers and practitioners towards the common goal of generative physically based rendering. All Jupyter notebooks with demonstrations associated to this tutorial can be found on the project webpage: https://sinbag.github.io/mcmc/

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has become a standard recipe for improving large language models (LLMs) on reasoning tasks, with Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) widely used in practice. Yet GRPO wastes substantial compute on negative groups: groups in which no sampled response is correct yield zero advantage and thus no gradient. We ask whether negative groups can be leveraged without extra supervision. Starting from a maximum-likelihood (MLE) objective in reward modeling, we show that the MLE gradient is equivalent to a policy gradient for a modified value function. This value function adds a confidence-weighted penalty on incorrect responses, imposing larger penalties on more confident mistakes. We refer to this as \textbf{L}ikelihood \textbf{E}stimation with \textbf{N}egative \textbf{S}amples (\textbf{LENS}). LENS modifies GRPO to assign non-zero, confidence-dependent rewards to incorrect generations, making negative groups informative and converting previously wasted samples into useful gradient updates. On the MATH benchmark with Llama-3.1-8B and Qwen-2.5-3B, the proposed variant consistently outperforms GRPO baseline, with significant gains on harder items. These results demonstrate a principled and practical way to "rescue" negative groups, improving efficiency and performance in RLVR.

In addition to accurate scene understanding through precise semantic segmentation of LiDAR point clouds, detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) objects, instances not encountered during training, is essential to prevent the incorrect assignment of unknown objects to known classes. While supervised OOD detection methods depend on auxiliary OOD datasets, unsupervised methods avoid this requirement but typically rely on predictive entropy, the entropy of the predictive distribution obtained by averaging over an ensemble or multiple posterior weight samples. However, these methods often conflate epistemic (model) and aleatoric (data) uncertainties, misclassifying ambiguous in distribution regions as OOD. To address this issue, we present an unsupervised OOD detection approach that employs epistemic uncertainty derived from hierarchical Bayesian modeling of Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) parameters in the feature space of a deep neural network. Without requiring auxiliary data or additional training stages, our approach outperforms existing uncertainty-based methods on the SemanticKITTI dataset, achieving an 18\% improvement in AUROC, 22\% increase in AUPRC, and 36\% reduction in FPR95 (from 76\% to 40\%), compared to the predictive entropy approach used in prior works.

Bayesian deep learning has always garnered substantial interest in the machine learning community.