While large language models (LLMs) excel in mathematical and code reasoning, we observe they struggle with social reasoning tasks, exhibiting cognitive confusion, logical inconsistencies, and conflation between objective world states and subjective belief states. Through deteiled analysis of DeepSeek-R1's reasoning trajectories, we find that LLMs frequently encounter reasoning impasses and tend to output contradictory terms like "tricky" and "confused" when processing scenarios with multiple participants and timelines, leading to erroneous reasoning or infinite loops. The core issue is their inability to disentangle objective reality from agents' subjective beliefs. To address this, we propose an adaptive world model-enhanced reasoning mechanism that constructs a dynamic textual world model to track entity states and temporal sequences. It dynamically monitors reasoning trajectories for confusion indicators and promptly intervenes by providing clear world state descriptions, helping models navigate through cognitive dilemmas. The mechanism mimics how humans use implicit world models to distinguish between external events and internal beliefs. Evaluations on three social benchmarks demonstrate significant improvements in accuracy (e.g., +10% in Hi-ToM) while reducing computational costs (up to 33.8% token reduction), offering a simple yet effective solution for deploying LLMs in social contexts.

Diffusion Posterior Sampling (DPS) provides a principled Bayesian approach to inverse problems by sampling from $p(x_0 \mid y)$. However, in practice, the goal of inverse problem solving is not to cover the posterior but to recover the most accurate reconstruction, where optimization-based diffusion solvers often excel despite lacking a clear probabilistic foundation. We introduce Local MAP Sampling (LMAPS), a new inference framework that iteratively solving local MAP subproblems along the diffusion trajectory. This perspective clarifies their connection to global MAP estimation and DPS, offering a unified probabilistic interpretation for optimization-based methods. Building on this foundation, we develop practical algorithms with a probabilistically interpretable covariance approximation, a reformulated objective for stability and interpretability, and a gradient approximation for non-differentiable operators. Across a broad set of image restoration and scientific tasks, LMAPS achieves state-of-the-art performance, including $\geq 2$ dB gains on motion deblurring, JPEG restoration, and quantization, and $>1.5$ dB improvements on inverse scattering benchmarks.

Conditional sampling is a fundamental task in Bayesian statistics and generative modeling. Consider the problem of sampling from the posterior distribution $P_{X|Y=y^*}$ for some observation $y^*$, where the likelihood $P_{Y|X}$ is known, and we are given $n$ i.i.d. samples $D=\{X_i\}_{i=1}^n$ drawn from an unknown prior distribution $π_X$. Suppose that $f(\hatπ_{X^n})$ is the distribution of a posterior sample generated by an algorithm (e.g. a conditional generative model or the Bayes rule) when $\hatπ_{X^n}$ is the empirical distribution of the training data. Although averaging over the randomness of the training data $D$, we have $\mathbb{E}_D\left(\hatπ_{X^n}\right)= π_X$, we do not have $\mathbb{E}_D\left\{f(\hatπ_{X^n})\right\}= f(π_X)$ due to the nonlinearity of $f$, leading to a bias. In this paper we propose a black-box debiasing scheme that improves the accuracy of such a naive plug-in approach. For any integer $k$ and under boundedness of the likelihood and smoothness of $f$, we generate samples $\hat{X}^{(1)},\dots,\hat{X}^{(k)}$ and weights $w_1,\dots,w_k$ such that $\sum_{i=1}^kw_iP_{\hat{X}^{(i)}}$ is a $k$-th order approximation of $f(π_X)$, where the generation process treats $f$ as a black-box. Our generation process achieves higher accuracy when averaged over the randomness of the training data, without degrading the variance, which can be interpreted as improving memorization without compromising generalization in generative models.

This paper develops a finite-sample statistical theory for in-context learning (ICL), analyzed within a meta-learning framework that accommodates mixtures of diverse task types. We introduce a principled risk decomposition that separates the total ICL risk into two orthogonal components: Bayes Gap and Posterior Variance. The Bayes Gap quantifies how well the trained model approximates the Bayes-optimal in-context predictor. For a uniform-attention Transformer, we derive a non-asymptotic upper bound on this gap, which explicitly clarifies the dependence on the number of pretraining prompts and their context length. The Posterior Variance is a model-independent risk representing the intrinsic task uncertainty. Our key finding is that this term is determined solely by the difficulty of the true underlying task, while the uncertainty arising from the task mixture vanishes exponentially fast with only a few in-context examples. Together, these results provide a unified view of ICL: the Transformer selects the optimal meta-algorithm during pretraining and rapidly converges to the optimal algorithm for the true task at test time.

We provide a unified algorithmic framework for ensemble sampling in nonlinear contextual bandits and develop corresponding regret bounds for two most common nonlinear contextual bandit settings: Generalized Linear Ensemble Sampling (\texttt{GLM-ES}) for generalized linear bandits and Neural Ensemble Sampling (\texttt{Neural-ES}) for neural contextual bandits. Both methods maintain multiple estimators for the reward model parameters via maximum likelihood estimation on randomly perturbed data. We prove high-probability frequentist regret bounds of $\mathcal{O}(d^{3/2} \sqrt{T} + d^{9/2})$ for \texttt{GLM-ES} and $\mathcal{O}(\widetilde{d} \sqrt{T})$ for \texttt{Neural-ES}, where $d$ is the dimension of feature vectors, $\widetilde{d}$ is the effective dimension of a neural tangent kernel matrix, and $T$ is the number of rounds. These regret bounds match the state-of-the-art results of randomized exploration algorithms in nonlinear contextual bandit settings. In the theoretical analysis, we introduce techniques that address challenges specific to nonlinear models. Practically, we remove fixed-time horizon assumptions by developing anytime versions of our algorithms, suitable when $T$ is unknown. Finally, we empirically evaluate \texttt{GLM-ES}, \texttt{Neural-ES}, and their anytime variants, demonstrating strong performance. Overall, our results establish ensemble sampling as a provable and practical randomized exploration approach for nonlinear contextual bandits.

Over the past couple of decades, many active learning acquisition functions have been proposed, leaving practitioners with an unclear choice of which to use. Bayesian Decision Theory (BDT) offers a universal principle to guide decision-making. In this work, we derive BDT for (Bayesian) active learning in the myopic framework, where we imagine we only have one more point to label. This derivation leads to effective algorithms such as Expected Error Reduction (EER), Expected Predictive Information Gain (EPIG), and other algorithms that appear in the literature. Furthermore, we show that BAIT (active learning based on V-optimal experimental design) can be derived from BDT and asymptotic approximations. A key challenge of such methods is the difficult scaling to large batch sizes, leading to either computational challenges (BatchBALD) or dramatic performance drops (top-$B$ selection). Here, using a particular formulation of the decision process, we derive Partial Batch Label Sampling (ParBaLS) for the EPIG algorithm. We show experimentally for several datasets that ParBaLS EPIG gives superior performance for a fixed budget and Bayesian Logistic Regression on Neural Embeddings. Our code is available at https://github.com/ADDAPT-ML/ParBaLS.

The representer theorem is a cornerstone of kernel methods, which aim to estimate latent functions in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs) in a nonparametric manner. Its significance lies in converting inherently infinite-dimensional optimization problems into finite-dimensional ones over dual coefficients, thereby enabling practical and computationally tractable algorithms. In this paper, we address the problem of estimating the latent triggering kernels--functions that encode the interaction structure between events--for linear multivariate Hawkes processes based on observed event sequences within an RKHS framework. We show that, under the principle of penalized least squares minimization, a novel form of representer theorem emerges: a family of transformed kernels can be defined via a system of simultaneous integral equations, and the optimal estimator of each triggering kernel is expressed as a linear combination of these transformed kernels evaluated at the data points. Remarkably, the dual coefficients are all analytically fixed to unity, obviating the need to solve a costly optimization problem to obtain the dual coefficients. This leads to a highly efficient estimator capable of handling large-scale data more effectively than conventional nonparametric approaches. Empirical evaluations on synthetic datasets reveal that the proposed method attains competitive predictive accuracy while substantially improving computational efficiency over existing state-of-the-art kernel method-based estimators.

Real-world clinical problems are often characterized by multimodal data, usually associated with incomplete views and limited sample sizes in their cohorts, posing significant limitations for machine learning algorithms. In this work, we propose a Bayesian approach designed to efficiently handle these challenges while providing interpretable solutions. Our approach integrates (1) a generative formulation to capture cross-view relationships with a semi-supervised strategy, and (2) a discriminative task-oriented formulation to identify relevant information for specific downstream objectives. This dual generative-discriminative formulation offers both general understanding and task-specific insights; thus, it provides an automatic imputation of the missing views while enabling robust inference across different data sources. The potential of this approach becomes evident when applied to the multimodal clinical data, where our algorithm is able to capture and disentangle the complex interactions among biological, psychological, and sociodemographic modalities.

Transformer-based models for amortized probabilistic inference, such as neural processes, prior-fitted networks, and tabular foundation models, excel at single-pass marginal prediction. However, many real-world applications, from signal interpolation to multi-column tabular predictions, require coherent joint distributions that capture dependencies between predictions. While purely autoregressive architectures efficiently generate such distributions, they sacrifice the flexible set-conditioning that makes these models powerful for meta-learning. Conversely, the standard approach to obtain joint distributions from set-based models requires expensive re-encoding of the entire augmented conditioning set at each autoregressive step. We introduce a causal autoregressive buffer that preserves the advantages of both paradigms. Our approach decouples context encoding from updating the conditioning set. The model processes the context once and caches it. A dynamic buffer then captures target dependencies: as targets are incorporated, they enter the buffer and attend to both the cached context and previously buffered targets. This enables efficient batched autoregressive generation and one-pass joint log-likelihood evaluation. A unified training strategy allows seamless integration of set-based and autoregressive modes at minimal additional cost. Across synthetic functions, EEG signals, cognitive models, and tabular data, our method matches predictive accuracy of strong baselines while delivering up to 20 times faster joint sampling. Our approach combines the efficiency of autoregressive generative models with the representational power of set-based conditioning, making joint prediction practical for transformer-based probabilistic models.

The vulnerability of machine learning models to adversarial attacks remains a critical security challenge. Traditional defenses, such as adversarial training, typically robustify models by minimizing a worst-case loss. However, these deterministic approaches do not account for uncertainty in the adversary's attack. While stochastic defenses placing a probability distribution on the adversary exist, they often lack statistical rigor and fail to make explicit their underlying assumptions. To resolve these issues, we introduce a formal Bayesian framework that models adversarial uncertainty through a stochastic channel, articulating all probabilistic assumptions. This yields two robustification strategies: a proactive defense enacted during training, aligned with adversarial training, and a reactive defense enacted during operations, aligned with adversarial purification. Several previous defenses can be recovered as limiting cases of our model. We empirically validate our methodology, showcasing the benefits of explicitly modeling adversarial uncertainty.