Gaussian Processes are powerful regression models specified by parametrized mean and covariance functions. Standard approaches to estimate these parameters (known by the name Hyperparameters) are Maximum Likelihood (ML) and Maximum APosterior (MAP) approaches. In this paper, we propose and investigate predictive approaches, namely, maximization of Geisser's Surrogate Predictive Probability (GPP) and minimization of mean square error with respect to GPP (referred to as Geisser's Predictive mean square Error (GPE)) to estimate the hyperparameters. We also derive results for the standard Cross-Validation (CV) error and make a comparison. These approaches are tested on a number of problems and experimental results show that these approaches are strongly competitive to existing approaches. 1 Introduction Gaussian Processes (GPs) are powerful regression models that have gained popularity recently, though they have appeared in different forms in the literature for years.

The curse of dimensionality is severe when modeling high-dimensional discrete data: the number of possible combinations of the variables explodes exponentially. In this paper we propose a new architecture for modeling high-dimensional data that requires resources (parameters and computations) that grow only at most as the square of the number of variables, using a multi-layer neural network to represent the joint distribution of the variables as the product of conditional distributions. The neural network can be interpreted as a graphical model without hidden random variables, but in which the conditional distributions are tied through the hidden units. The connectivity of the neural network can be pruned by using dependency tests between the variables. Experiments on modeling the distribution of several discrete data sets show statistically significant improvements over other methods such as naive Bayes and comparable Bayesian networks, and show that significant improvements can be obtained by pruning the network. 1 Introduction The curse of dimensionality hits particularly hard on models of high-dimensional discrete data because there are many more possible combinations of the values of the variables than can possibly be observed in any data set, even the large data sets now common in datamining applications.

We describe a class of probabilistic models that we call credibility networks. Using parse trees as internal representations of images, credibility networks are able to perform segmentation and recognition simultaneously, removing the need for ad hoc segmentation heuristics. Promising results in the problem of segmenting handwritten digits were obtained.

We describe a Bayesian approach to model selection in unsupervised learning that determines both the feature set and the number of clusters. We then evaluate this scheme (based on marginal likelihood) and one based on cross-validated likelihood. For the Bayesian scheme we derive a closed-form solution of the marginal likelihood by assuming appropriate forms of the likelihood function and prior. Extensive experiments compare these approaches and all results are verified by comparison against ground truth. In these experiments the Bayesian scheme using our objective function gave better results than cross-validation. 1 Introduction Recent efforts define the model selection problem as one of estimating the number of clusters[ 10, 17].

We present a general framework for discriminative estimation based on the maximum entropy principle and its extensions. All calculations involve distributions over structures and/or parameters rather than specific settings and reduce to relative entropy projections. This holds even when the data is not separable within the chosen parametric class, in the context of anomaly detection rather than classification, or when the labels in the training set are uncertain or incomplete. Support vector machines are naturally subsumed under this class and we provide several extensions. We are also able to estimate exactly and efficiently discriminative distributions over tree structures of class-conditional models within this framework.

We formulate the problem of retrieving images from visual databases as a problem of Bayesian inference. This leads to natural and effective solutions for two of the most challenging issues in the design of a retrieval system: providing support for region-based queries without requiring prior image segmentation, and accounting for user-feedback during a retrieval session. We present a new learning algorithm that relies on belief propagation to account for both positive and negative examples of the user's interests.

Although one can derive the Gaussian noise assumption based on a maximum entropy approach, the main reason for this assumption is practicability: under the Gaussian noise assumption the maximum likelihood parameter estimate can simply be found by minimization of the squared error. Despite its common use it is far from clear that the Gaussian noise assumption is a good choice for many practical problems. A reasonable approach therefore would be a noise distribution which contains the Gaussian as a special case but which has a tunable parameter that allows for more flexible distributions.

I present a simple variation of importance sampling that explicitly searches for important regions in the target distribution. I prove that the technique yields unbiased estimates, and show empirically it can reduce the variance of standard Monte Carlo estimators. This is achieved by concentrating samples in more significant regions of the sample space. 1 Introduction It is well known that general inference and learning with graphical models is computationally hard [1] and it is therefore necessary to consider restricted architectures [13], or approximate algorithms to perform these tasks [3, 7]. Among the most convenient and successful techniques are stochastic methods which are guaranteed to converge to a correct solution in the limit oflarge samples [10, 11, 12, 15]. These methods can be easily applied to complex inference problems that overwhelm deterministic approaches.

The support vector machine (SVM) is a state-of-the-art technique for regression and classification, combining excellent generalisation properties with a sparse kernel representation. However, it does suffer from a number of disadvantages, notably the absence of probabilistic outputs, the requirement to estimate a tradeoff parameter and the need to utilise'Mercer' kernel functions. In this paper we introduce the Relevance Vector Machine (RVM), a Bayesian treatment of a generalised linear model of identical functional form to the SVM. The RVM suffers from none of the above disadvantages, and examples demonstrate that for comparable generalisation performance, the RVM requires dramatically fewer kernel functions.

We consider the problem of learning a grid-based map using a robot with noisy sensors and actuators. We compare two approaches: online EM, where the map is treated as a fixed parameter, and Bayesian inference, where the map is a (matrix-valued) random variable. We show that even on a very simple example, online EM can get stuck in local minima, which causes the robot to get "lost" and the resulting map to be useless. By contrast, the Bayesian approach, by maintaining multiple hypotheses, is much more robust. We then introduce a method for approximating the Bayesian solution, called Rao-Blackwellised particle filtering. We show that this approximation, when coupled with an active learning strategy, is fast but accurate.