We present a simple sparse greedy technique to approximate the maximum a posteriori estimate of Gaussian Processes with much improved scaling behaviour in the sample size m.

A central issue in principal component analysis (PCA) is choosing the number of principal components to be retained. By interpreting PCA as density estimation, we show how to use Bayesian model selection to estimate the true dimensionality of the data. The resulting estimate is simple to compute yet guaranteed to pick the correct dimensionality, given enough data. The estimate involves an integral over the Steifel manifold of k-frames, which is difficult to compute exactly. But after choosing an appropriate parameterization and applying Laplace's method, an accurate and practical estimator is obtained. In simulations, it is convincingly better than cross-validation and other proposed algorithms, plus it runs much faster.

Two well known classes of unsupervised procedures that can be cast in this manner are generative and recoding models. In a generative unsupervised framework, the environment generates training exampleswhich we will refer to as observations-by sampling from one distribution; the other distribution is embodied in the model. Examples of generative frameworks are mixtures of Gaussians (MoG) [2], factor analysis [4], and Boltzmann machines [8]. In the recoding unsupervised framework, the model transforms points from an obser- vation space to an output space, and the output distribution is compared either to a reference distribution or to a distribution derived from the output distribution. An example is independent component analysis (leA) [11], a method that discovers a representation of vector-valued observations in which the statistical dependence among the vector elements in the output space is minimized.

Subsequently, SVMs have been modified to handle regression [12] and GPs have been adapted to the problem of classification [8]. Both schemes essentially work in the same function space that is characterised by kernels (SVM) and covariance functions (GP), respectively. While the formal similarity of the two methods is striking the underlying paradigms of inference are very different. The SVM was inspired by results from statistical/PAC learning theory while GPs are usually considered in a Bayesian framework. This ideological clash can be viewed as a continuation in machine learning of the by now classical disagreement between Bayesian and frequentistic statistics.

One way to approximate inference in richly-connected graphical models is to apply the sum-product algorithm (a.k.a. The sum-product algorithm can be directly applied in Gaussian networks and in graphs for coding, but for many conditional probability functions - including the sigmoid function - direct application of the sum-product algorithm is not possible. We introduce "accumulator networks" that have low local complexity (but exponential global complexity) so the sum-product algorithm can be directly applied. In an accumulator network, the probability of a child given its parents is computed by accumulating the inputs from the parents in a Markov chain or more generally a tree. After giving expressions for inference and learning in accumulator networks, we give results on the "bars problem" and on the problem of extracting translated, overlapping faces from an image. 1 Introduction Graphical probability models with hidden variables are capable of representing complex dependencies between variables, filling in missing data and making Bayesoptimal decisions using probabilistic inferences (Hinton and Sejnowski 1986; Pearl 1988; Neal 1992).

We present an algorithm that samples the hypothesis space of kernel classifiers. Given a uniform prior over normalised weight vectors and a likelihood based on a model of label noise leads to a piecewise constant posterior that can be sampled by the kernel Gibbs sampler (KGS). The KGS is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method that chooses a random direction in parameter space and samples from the resulting piecewise constant density along the line chosen. The KGS can be used as an analytical tool for the exploration of Bayesian transduction, Bayes point machines, active learning, and evidence-based model selection on small data sets that are contaminated with label noise. For a simple toy example we demonstrate experimentally how a Bayes point machine based on the KGS outperforms an SVM that is incapable of taking into account label noise. 1 Introduction Two great ideas have dominated recent developments in machine learning: the application of kernel methods and the popularisation of Bayesian inference.

Variational approximations are becoming a widespread tool for Bayesian learning of graphical models. We provide some theoretical results for the variational updates in a very general family of conjugate-exponential graphical models. We show how the belief propagation and the junction tree algorithms can be used in the inference step of variational Bayesian learning. Applying these results to the Bayesian analysis of linear-Gaussian state-space models we obtain a learning procedure that exploits the Kalman smoothing propagation, while integrating over all model parameters. We demonstrate how this can be used to infer the hidden state dimensionality of the state-space model in a variety of synthetic problems and one real high-dimensional data set. 1 Introduction Bayesian approaches to machine learning have several desirable properties.

The Bayesian paradigm apparently only sometimes gives rise to Occam's Razor; at other times very large models perform well. We give simple examples of both kinds of behaviour. The two views are reconciled when measuring complexity of functions, rather than of the machinery used to implement them. We analyze the complexity of functions for some linear in the parameter models that are equivalent to Gaussian Processes, and always find Occam's Razor at work. 1 Introduction Occam's Razor is a well known principle of "parsimony of explanations" which is influential in scientific thinking in general and in problems of statistical inference in particular. In this paper we review its consequences for Bayesian statistical models, where its behaviour can be easily demonstrated and quantified.

Learning of a smooth but nonparametric probability density can be regularized using methods of Quantum Field Theory. We implement a field theoretic prior numerically, test its efficacy, and show that the free parameter of the theory (,smoothness scale') can be determined self consistently by the data; this forms an infinite dimensional generalization of the MDL principle. Finally, we study the implications of one's choice of the prior and the parameterization and conclude that the smoothness scale determination makes density estimation very weakly sensitive to the choice of the prior, and that even wrong choices can be advantageous for small data sets. One of the central problems in learning is to balance'goodness of fit' criteria against the complexity of models. An important development in the Bayesian approach was thus the realization that there does not need to be any extra penalty for model complexity: if we compute the total probability that data are generated by a model, there is a factor from the volume in parameter space-the'Occam factor' -that discriminates against models with more parameters [1, 2].

Jensen's inequality is a powerful mathematical tool and one of the workhorses in statistical learning. Its applications therein include the EM algorithm, Bayesian estimation and Bayesian inference. Jensen computes simple lower bounds on otherwise intractable quantities such as products of sums and latent log-likelihoods. This simplification then permits operations like integration and maximization. Quite often (i.e. in discriminative learning) upper bounds are needed as well. We derive and prove an efficient analytic inequality that provides such variational upper bounds. This inequality holds for latent variable mixtures of exponential family distributions and thus spans a wide range of contemporary statistical models. We also discuss applications of the upper bounds including maximum conditional likelihood, large margin discriminative models and conditional Bayesian inference. Convergence, efficiency and prediction results are shown.