The purpose of this paper is to investigate infinity-sample properties of risk minimization based multi-category classification methods. These methods can be considered as natural extensions to binary large margin classification. We establish conditions that guarantee the infinity-sample consistency of classifiers obtained in the risk minimization framework. Examples are provided for two specific forms of the general formulation, which extend a number of known methods. Using these examples, we show that some risk minimization formulations can also be used to obtain conditional probability estimates for the underlying problem. Such conditional probability information will be useful for statistical inferencing tasks beyond classification.

We describe a nonparametric Bayesian approach to generalizing from few labeled examples, guided by a larger set of unlabeled objects and the assumption of a latent tree-structure to the domain. The tree (or a distribution over trees) may be inferred using the unlabeled data. A prior over concepts generated by a mutation process on the inferred tree(s) allows efficient computation of the optimal Bayesian classification function from the labeled examples. We test our approach on eight real-world datasets.

When we model a higher order functions, such as learning and memory, we face a difficulty of comparing neural activities with hidden variables that depend on the history of sensory and motor signals and the dynamics of the network. Here, we propose novel method for estimating hidden variables of a learning agent, such as connection weights from sequences of observable variables. Bayesian estimation is a method to estimate the posterior probability of hidden variables from observable data sequence using a dynamic model of hidden and observable variables. In this paper, we apply particle filter for estimating internal parameters and metaparameters of a reinforcement learning model. We verified the effectiveness of the method using both artificial data and real animal behavioral data.

Loopy belief propagation (BP) has been successfully used in a number of difficult graphical models to find the most probable configuration of the hidden variables. In applications ranging from protein folding to image analysis one would like to find not just the best configuration but rather the top M. While this problem has been solved using the junction tree formalism, in many real world problems the clique size in the junction tree is prohibitively large. In this work we address the problem of finding the M best configurations when exact inference is impossible. We start by developing a new exact inference algorithm for calculating the best configurations that uses only max-marginals. For approximate inference, we replace the max-marginals with the beliefs calculated using max-product BP and generalized BP. We show empirically that the algorithm can accurately and rapidly approximate the M best configurations in graphs with hundreds of variables.

In this paper we obtain convergence bounds for the concentration of Bayesian posterior distributions (around the true distribution) using a novel method that simplifies and enhances previous results. Based on the analysis, we also introduce a generalized family of Bayesian posteriors, and show that the convergence behavior of these generalized posteriors is completely determined by the local prior structure around the true distribution. This important and surprising robustness property does not hold for the standard Bayesian posterior in that it may not concentrate when there exist "bad" prior structures even at places far away from the true distribution.

Recently, relevance vector machines (RVM) have been fashioned from a sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) framework to perform supervised learning using a weight prior that encourages sparsity of representation. The methodology incorporates an additional set of hyperparameters governing the prior, one for each weight, and then adopts a specific approximation to the full marginalization over all weights and hyperparameters. Despite its empirical success however, no rigorous motivation for this particular approximation is currently available. To address this issue, we demonstrate that SBL can be recast as the application of a rigorous variational approximation to the full model by expressing the prior in a dual form. This formulation obviates the necessity of assuming any hyperpriors and leads to natural, intuitive explanations of why sparsity is achieved in practice.

Approximation structure plays an important role in inference on loopy graphs. As a tractable structure, tree approximations have been utilized in the variational method of Ghahramani & Jordan (1997) and the sequential projection method of Frey et al. (2000). However, belief propagation represents each factor of the graph with a product of single-node messages. In this paper, belief propagation is extended to represent factors with tree approximations, by way of the expectation propagation framework. That is, each factor sends a "message" to all pairs of nodes in a tree structure. The result is more accurate inferences and more frequent convergence than ordinary belief propagation, at a lower cost than variational trees or double-loop algorithms.

We present an analysis of concentration-of-expectation phenomena in layered Bayesian networks that use generalized linear models as the local conditional probabilities. This framework encompasses a wide variety of probability distributions, including both discrete and continuous random variables. We utilize ideas from large deviation analysis and the delta method to devise and evaluate a class of approximate inference algorithms for layered Bayesian networks that have superior asymptotic error bounds and very fast computation time.

What happens to the optimal interpretation of noisy data when there exists more than one equally plausible interpretation of the data? In a Bayesian model-learning framework the answer depends on the prior expectations of the dynamics of the model parameter that is to be inferred from the data. Local time constraints on the priors are insufficient to pick one interpretation over another. On the other hand, nonlocal time constraints, induced by a 1/f noise spectrum of the priors, is shown to permit learning of a specific model parameter even when there are infinitely many equally plausible interpretations of the data. This transition is inferred by a remarkable mapping of the model estimation problem to a dissipative physical system, allowing the use of powerful statistical mechanical methods to uncover the transition from indeterminate to determinate model learning.

Although discriminatively trained classifiers are usually more accurate when labeled training data is abundant, previous work has shown that when training data is limited, generative classifiers can outperform them. This paper describes a hybrid model in which a high-dimensional subset of the parameters are trained to maximize generative likelihood, and another, small, subset of parameters are discriminatively trained to maximize conditional likelihood. We give a sample complexity bound showing that in order to fit the discriminative parameters well, the number of training examples required depends only on the logarithm of the number of feature occurrences and feature set size. Experimental results show that hybrid models can provide lower test error and can produce better accuracy/coverage curves than either their purely generative or purely discriminative counterparts. We also discuss several advantages of hybrid models, and advocate further work in this area.