Bayesian Inference
Causal inference in sensorimotor integration
Kรถrding, Konrad P., Tenenbaum, Joshua B.
Many recent studies analyze how data from different modalities can be combined. Often this is modeled as a system that optimally combines several sources of information aboutthe same variable. However, it has long been realized that this information combining depends on the interpretation of the data. Two cues that are perceived by different modalities can have different causal relationships: (1) They can both have the same cause, in this case we should fully integrate both cues into a joint estimate.
Inferring Network Structure from Co-Occurrences
Rabbat, Michael G., Figueiredo, Mรกrio, Nowak, Robert
We consider the problem of inferring the structure of a network from cooccurrence data:observations that indicate which nodes occur in a signaling pathway but do not directly reveal node order within the pathway. This problem is motivated by network inference problems arising in computational biology and communication systems, in which it is difficult or impossible to obtain precise time ordering information. Without order information, every permutation of the activated nodes leads to a different feasible solution, resulting in combinatorial explosion of the feasible set. However, physical principles underlying most networked systemssuggest that not all feasible solutions are equally likely. Intuitively, nodes that cooccur more frequently are probably more closely connected. Building on this intuition, we model path co-occurrences as randomly shuffled samples of a random walk on the network. We derive a computationally efficient network inference algorithm and, via novel concentration inequalities for importance samplingestimators, prove that a polynomial complexity Monte Carlo version of the algorithm converges with high probability.
Bayesian Detection of Infrequent Differences in Sets of Time Series with Shared Structure
Listgarten, Jennifer, Neal, Radford M., Roweis, Sam T., Puckrin, Rachel, Cutler, Sean
We present a hierarchical Bayesian model for sets of related, but different, classes of time series data. Our model performs alignment simultaneously across all classes, while detecting and characterizing class-specific differences. During inference themodel produces, for each class, a distribution over a canonical representation ofthe class. These class-specific canonical representations are automatically aligned to one another -- preserving common substructures, and highlighting differences.
Combining causal and similarity-based reasoning
Kemp, Charles, Shafto, Patrick, Berke, Allison, Tenenbaum, Joshua B.
Everyday inductive reasoning draws on many kinds of knowledge, including knowledge about relationships between properties and knowledge about relationships between objects. Previous accounts of inductive reasoning generally focus on just one kind of knowledge: models of causal reasoning often focus on relationships between properties, and models of similarity-based reasoning often focus on similarity relationships between objects. We present a Bayesian model of inductive reasoning that incorporates both kinds of knowledge, and show that it accounts well for human inferences about the properties of biological species.
A Collapsed Variational Bayesian Inference Algorithm for Latent Dirichlet Allocation
Teh, Yee W., Newman, David, Welling, Max
Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) is a Bayesian network that has recently gained much popularity in applications ranging from document modeling to computer vision. Due to the large scale nature of these applications, current inference procedures like variational Bayes and Gibbs sampling have been found lacking. In this paper we propose the collapsed variational Bayesian inference algorithm for LDA, and show that it is computationally efficient, easy to implement and significantly more accurate than standard variational Bayesian inference for LDA.
A Nonparametric Bayesian Method for Inferring Features From Similarity Judgments
Navarro, Daniel J., Griffiths, Thomas L.
The additive clustering model is widely used to infer the features of a set of stimuli from their similarities, on the assumption that similarity is a weighted linear function ofcommon features. This paper develops a fully Bayesian formulation of the additive clustering model, using methods from nonparametric Bayesian statistics to allow the number of features to vary. We use this to explore several approaches to parameter estimation, showing that the nonparametric Bayesian approach provides astraightforward way to obtain estimates of both the number of features used in producing similarity judgments and their importance.
Learning Nonparametric Models for Probabilistic Imitation
Grimes, David B., Rashid, Daniel R., Rao, Rajesh P.
Learning by imitation represents an important mechanism for rapid acquisition of new behaviors in humans and robots. A critical requirement for learning by imitation is the ability to handle uncertainty arising from the observation process as well as the imitator's own dynamics and interactions with the environment. In this paper, we present a new probabilistic method for inferring imitative actions that takes into account both the observations of the teacher as well as the imitator's dynamics. Our key contribution is a nonparametric learning method which generalizes to systems with very different dynamics. Rather than relying on a known forward model of the dynamics, our approach learns a nonparametric forward model via exploration. Leveraging advances in approximate inference in graphical models, we show how the learned forward model can be directly used to plan an imitating sequence. We provide experimental results for two systems: a biome-chanical model of the human arm and a 25-degrees-of-freedom humanoid robot. We demonstrate that the proposed method can be used to learn appropriate motor inputs to the model arm which imitates the desired movements. A second set of results demonstrates dynamically stable full-body imitation of a human teacher by the humanoid robot.
Dirichlet-Enhanced Spam Filtering based on Biased Samples
Bickel, Steffen, Scheffer, Tobias
We study a setting that is motivated by the problem of filtering spam messages for many users. Each user receives messages according to an individual, unknown distribution, reflected only in the unlabeled inbox. The spam filter for a user is required to perform well with respect to this distribution. Labeled messages from publicly available sources can be utilized, but they are governed by a distinct distribution, notadequately representing most inboxes. We devise a method that minimizes a loss function with respect to a user's personal distribution based on the available biased sample. A nonparametric hierarchical Bayesian model furthermore generalizesacross users by learning a common prior which is imposed on new email accounts. Empirically, we observe that bias-corrected learning outperforms naivereliance on the assumption of independent and identically distributed data; Dirichlet-enhanced generalization across users outperforms a single ("one size fits all") filter as well as independent filters for all users.